Jindal request for better reform tips aggressive agenda

If his reaction to a proposed pay plan change for classified state employees is any indication, Gov. Bobby Jindal may be looking to swing for the fences in 2010.

Late last year, the State Civil Service Commission approved a change that would tie specific pay raises to performance levels, with better evaluated performances earning higher pay. It would allow exceptions to those with SCSC approval. The current system gives a flat raise to anybody scoring in the three highest performance categories which in 2008-09 turned out to be 98.4 percent of those rated, if the Legislature and governor authorizes one, although the Director of Civil Service can waive or halt these if budgetary difficulties are demonstrated.

This certainly was better than the prior system as it provided more rewards for higher achievers and provided incentives for lower achievers to improve or to leave the system. But Jindal vetoed this good reform, saying it was not as flexible as another proposal that had failed to gain passage which would set the percentage increase targets as discretionary maximums decided on a case-by-case basis by agencies, and would leave the ability to grant variances in the hands of the director.

The main reason why Jindal found this objectionable was because the adjustment in the scale, where adequate performers automatically would get a three percent, good performers four percent, and outstanding performers six percent, cures only a symptom and not the major disease that inhibits creation of a compensation adjustment regime that truly would reflect merit and encourage more efficient work: that the current distribution of evaluations simply is not credible and biased well to the high side. For 2008-09, about a third of evaluated employees were placed in the middle “meets expectations” category, almost half were in the higher “exceed expectations” category, and about a seventh were in the highest “outstanding” category. The last proportion might be realistic, but it is way too much to believe that four-fifths of the state’s classified work force is in the other two categories to be valid.

The DSCS has discussed with the SCSC reforming the evaluation process to make it more realistic, so this call for the unapproved previous plan is Jindal’s way of putting pressure on them to do so and to have a backup in case they don’t. Simply, if no genuine ratings will occur, agencies (on direction by the governor) would have the option of setting their own, lower levels than the 3/4/6 scheme under the governor-backed plan.

Jindal will get his way, and in time for the 2010 fiscal year. Not only does he appoint all but one of the SCSC members and can threaten not to reappoint if thwarted, but also he can inform them that it the change isn’t made, he’ll veto any legislative attempt to provide a pay raise according to the present four percent flat regime which the Legislature will not override. Raises will be given his way or not at all, and the change will happen.

This signals that Jindal isn’t content to settle for staying inside the park on this issue, but wants to hit a homer. If he brings that attitude to the legislative session this year (as one of his key allies predicts), there could be a lot of dramatic change and fireworks in the offing.

Correctly so, VP interest still hovers around Jindal

Two things seem apparent from a recent entry to Newsweek’s “The Gaggle” by Andrew Romano: that he read this post of mine from a half year ago, and that national interest among the chattering classes has yet to abate concerning the political future of Louisiana’s Gov. Bobby Jindal.

The piece speculates about whether Republican Jindal will position himself for a potential vice presidential nomination slot in 2012. He reviews my logic about why Jindal is unlikely to run for president in 2012 – a constrained election calendar, additional benefits of serving two terms as governor, and the chancy nature of running against an incumbent (although he failed to note that this holds true even against a damaged incumbent, which I forecasted about Pres. Barack Obama even before he took office and which is coming to pass) – and also agrees with me that former candidate and governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney might be the guy to hook up with.

Romano takes the Romney angle and runs further with it, showing how Romney appears to favor Jindal and interaction between the two. In fact, given the demographics of various GOP hopefuls for 2012, most are in Jindal’s age range and would have been governors, so they probably would pick a running mate with more national experience and wrinkled craniums than Jindal; besides former candidate and governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee whose economic populism will be in deep disfavor after four years of Obama, only Romney fits the profile of a candidate that would pick someone with Jindal’s profile.

In case Romney does capture the nomination next time, another thing may favor Jindal’s selection even more compellingly: Democrat Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu is the likeliest winner of the upcoming New Orleans’ mayor’s race and thereby with his exit to take that job probably means a Republican lieutenant governor will be present by the time Jindal would have to jump ship if getting elected in 2012. That’s one less discouragement to keep Jindal from leaving the national sidelines, knowing a Democrat and especially one with the surname of Landrieu won’t be sliding into the Governor’s Mansion as a result.

And yet another contingency works for Jindal on this account: if he can guide Louisiana through some tough budgetary times through his first term, he will gain major credit and maybe even a brighter 2012 economically and fiscally within the state – perhaps by some of his very deeds – could allow him a first year of a second term to spread a little cheer with moves such as tax cuts. The publicity from being able to manage the state without much pain in bad times and delivering on a conservative agenda in the good would make him even more attractive on a ticket.

If elected, it’s obvious where conceivably he could go from there. If not, a piece of historical risk remains for this strategy – only one president in the modern campaign period ever won the office after having participated in a losing vice presidential candidacy, and it took a depression to do it. Still, it’s a risk most politicians would take. From the other side of the equation, a reason that a presidential nominee might not take him would be he does not come from a swing state where a running mate could be used to move some electoral votes into the GOP column.

Still, what Romano wrote recently is as plausible as when I wrote it six months ago. Jindal may have this as an ultimate middle-term strategy that will hinge on his (very likely) reelection in 2011, and having the party pick the right guy to lead the way in 2012. If so, in the near-term look for him to continue with party-building efforts on his trips out of state, a prominent role in an upcoming Republican meeting in April (already listed as an invited speaker), and continued interaction with Romney.

Panel's uneven choices need fixing before conclusion

Louisiana’s Postsecondary Education Review Commission, assigned to find ways to make the state’s higher education work more efficiently, made some more decisions about recommendations for policy changes that are more uneven than the good work it has done to this point, with undesirable consequences unless fixed.

It produced two notable suggestions, which will be forwarded next month for disposition by the Legislature, from its latest meeting. First, it argued that the state should merge its several higher education governance boards into three, one for community and technical colleges, one for baccalaureate-and-above institutions, and the Board of Regents where the latter would provide overall policy coordination while the others concentrated on operational aspects. However, it said this should occur only if certain benchmarks were not achieved by 2014.

This was disappointing because the benefits of consolidation stand independently of any timeframe or other goals. Why have three different systems for baccalaureate-and-above schools (with a community college thrown into one of them) when their tasks essentially are the same? Perhaps it was a bow to political expediency because the constituencies built up behind the different systems would make difficult the merger, and some kind of signal of failure to create an imperative may have been thought necessary to have any chance of getting this through a majority of the Legislature, and with two-thirds voting approval by the public (as this necessitates a constitutional amendment).

LA GOP rightly censures group devaluing party ID

Internecine war to a degree broke out at the latest meeting of the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee meeting. The question is whether the conflict helped or hindered the party’s chance at propagating its ideas.

Last year, a groups of GOP registrants but which has no formal affiliation with the party from New Orleans, the Greater New Orleans Republicans, had voted as a group to endorse state Sen. Edwin Murray’s bid to be the city’s next mayor. The problem was, Murray was a Democrat in a contest which had multiple Republican candidates, one of which, businessman Rob Couhig, had run respectably in 2006 gaining a double-digit share of the votes in a fragmented field.

This brought expressions of disapproval from the Committee, which meets quarterly to make broad governance decisions about the state party. It passed a resolution specifically censuring the group and generally calling on any state organization of Republicans to refrain from endorsements of non-Republicans when a GOP candidate was in a race. Mike Bayham, a Committee member who also is a member of the group, explained a majority of the group felt Couhig could not win. Ryan Booth, another Committee member, said he could understand the move as Murray was the best available candidate to defeat Democrat Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu “and the Democratic machine.” (Although the resolutions carry no enforcement, embarrassment on the group was increased when Murray subsequently dropped out of contest.)

But one wonders where Booth has been from the past several decades as political machines have come and gone in New Orleans no matter who was mayor. They’ve all had one thing in common – they’ve been of the Democrats, so what difference does it make which Democrat ends up leading whichever faction can gain ascendancy in the coming months as a result of this election?

And he and the group didn’t seem to understand that Murray would appear to have little to do with their presumed agendas – in the past five years as measured by my legislative scorecard at the Louisiana Legislature Log, on a scale where low scores represent extreme liberalism/populism, Murray has scored 42, 37, 35, 25, and (most recently), 5. In 2006 you might have been able to argue Murray wasn’t too far off being moderate, perhaps even more than Landrieu, but not now.

Bayham argued the specific mention of the group was a move of damaging inter-party strife that should be avoided. But that smacks more of acquiescence than understanding the purpose of a political party. To use the definition I give my American Government students, a political party seeks to organize and operate government for the purposes of making public policy by supplying candidates for offices with a label. That does mean if you are a group that deliberately adopts a party label in its name, you should be in the business of supporting candidates using that label or at least not supporting others with a different one when one or more of your own runs.

No, a Republican has little chance of winning citywide Feb. 6 or in any runoff. Yet to write off completely support of one of your own damages the very label and thereby the causes associated with it that those choosing to do so say they value. Like any attitude, party identification and thus the strong correlation it has with subsequent behavior like voting for the party’s candidates erodes when it is devalued by deliberately setting it aside in these situations, And the more often that is done, the chances of that party’s candidates winning become even longer as fewer people stay enthusiastic about the party’s candidates and attitudes become more complacent in accepting an agenda further and further from what was once believed. Such an environment, for example, would have made the election of the area’s Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao – himself a recent GOP convert that likely could not have won otherwise –impossible.

The state party entirely was correct to word the censure motion as it did and pass it. If this group’s majority feels this way which is more indicative of an interest group than of an organization claiming affiliation with a political party, it either should change its name or change its behavior. Otherwise, its disingenuousness will cause it to lose credibility among those in the area truly interested in wanting to offer a choice, not an echo, to the Democrats which is the only way the Republicans have a chance to succeed.

Broussard joins promising politicians abruptly gone

As I prepared to return to Louisiana after a few years teaching at universities across the South, I viewed from afar the train wreck developing concerning the governor’s race. With incumbent moderate Buddy Roemer fading against the Hobson’s choice of former holder liberal Edwin Edwards and conservative masquerader David Duke, with genuine conservative Rep. Clyde Holloway not catching on, some wondered if then-mayor of Kenner Aaron Broussard might not be an attractive alternative, a presumed moderate Democrat with a record of achievement at the civic level.

It was thought that with Roemer having just turned Republican that a moderate Democrat could seize a number of votes, possibly Broussard or a then-member of the Public Service Commission, Kathleen Blanco. Blanco got in but never qualified, yet probably chased Broussard whose candidacy never caught fire. We know she eventually won the office a dozen years later, but ended her political career ignominiously wrecked on the shoals of her handling of the hurricane disasters of 2005. The same should have happened to Broussard, but his political exit appears to come for a very different reason.

Despite an image of political competence and progressiveness courtesy of a growing Kenner and then Jefferson Parish which he served first on its council and then as its president for the past several years, Broussard was an old-style political hack as befitting the environs around New Orleans. He worked inside to retain and use power, and he could play the populist card when needed.

If concerns addressed, LA should pursue school funds

Next week, a few days ahead of the deadline Louisiana will submit its formal application for the so-called “Race to the Top” funds that can give the state hundreds of millions of dollars for educational reforms bent on improving its delivery. Whether the state will win part of that money is one thing; whether it should pursue it is another.

Louisiana stands a good chance of getting a piece of the action because it already has a well-regarded accountability system in place and can demonstrate it has the ability to institute a system of teacher accountability based upon student achievement. The latter comes from the willingness of the Louisiana Federation of Teachers, in an unexpected but welcome and astute move, to support the idea which is 27.6 percent of scoring (the other major state teachers union, the Louisiana Association of Educators, has declined to endorse the application). Over 80 percent of districts have pledged participation (which can be revoked until the middle of February) as have a large majority of the state’s charter schools.

However, the Louisiana School Board Association rejected the idea, citing the potential for assuming larger costs after the federal money ran out, of which half would go to and then have to be sustained by districts. This also was related to animosity the group felt towards state education Superintendant Paul Pastorek who supported reduction of political interference of education by boards by introducing term limitation to school board members and removing some personnel decision-making power vested in boards. Such support which will not be forthcoming in Louisiana’s application constitutes 9 percent of the scoring.

But education reformer and Board of Elementary and Secondary Education member Chas Roemer wisely points out that federal regulations, to this point only cursorily written about the program, could make the entire exercise a waste of money. He notes that unless standards are created that prevent union interference, with its emphasis on job preservation especially for the least capable teachers, with the improvement goals of the program, little if anything will be gained. Such rules from the federal Department of Education are yet forthcoming.

This program seems worthwhile and should be pursued – if the concern noted by Roemer is satisfactorily addressed within the month. If not, the state should withdraw its application and pursue many of the same ideas behind it on its own.

LA political future: Kennedy vs. Landrieu for top job?

As 2010 opens, actions unfolding at the end of last year may point to the distant future of political leadership in Louisiana .

Throughout the fall, Republican Treasurer John Kennedy vigorously embraced his role on the Commission to Streamline Government impaneled to find ways to save the state money. By far its most vocal member, throwing out ideas of mixed value left and right, many made their way into the final report released yesterday to which Kennedy gave lukewarm reviews. In the process, the mantle of bold fiscal reformer passed to Kennedy from fellow GOP affiliate Gov. Bobby Jindal.

As Kennedy wrapped up his participation, Democrat Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu surprised most observers by reversing his pledge of months previous that he would not take a third stab at becoming New Orleans’ mayor. Sensing the opportunity was right, it appeared to pay off when a couple of presumed quality opponents withdrew and now it appears he has become the favorite to capture the prize that has eluded him for so long. If doing so, statewide attention paid to him would vastly expand (because, let’s face it, with a real Secretary of Culture, Recreation and Tourism around actually to run the department over which the state Constitution grants the lieutenant governor nominal authority, that officer just isn’t responsible for a whole lot and has a hard time having any policy-making influence – although Landrieu has tried.)

With the Streamlining Commission not going away and its relevance remaining high in this time of state budgetary stress and Landrieu’s likely win, the state could be seeing the initial jockeying of the prime two candidates to slug it out for the governorship in 2015. With wags wondering whether Kennedy remains confused about which office he really holds given his enthusiastic embrace of throwing out policy-making ideas that are the province of the governor, and with Landrieu’s increasing activism and profile in a state where Democrats are searching ever more in vain for white candidates that can compete for governor statewide, if things continue to develop as they are, the two could be on a collision course for that office. An easy reelection for Kennedy and one for Landrieu with another year-plus on top of that running New Orleans could put both in strong positions to contest for that top spot.

Much can happen in five years, but on their current trajectories both could become political heavyweights that would set up a race that the state will not have seen in nearly a quarter-century.

Report provides Jindal historic leadership opportunity

Louisiana’s short-awaited Commission on Streamlining Government’s recommendations finally officially are out, and the problem with the report’s results having a significant impact is not with the quality of the recommendations, but with the necessity of political will and from where it must emanate to implement them.

Gov. Bobby Jindal no doubt enthusiastically will go after some of these, as those particular ones are part of a reformist agenda that politically faces tough sledding. While of course Jindal wanted to see savings suggestions in this time of budgetary strain, his main goal was to find political cover for favored measures such as closing inefficient state institutions such as state-run developmental centers, reorganizing higher education (tangentially addressed by this body), reduction of dedicated funds, and reorganizing civil service personnel policies, to name some where he has articulated a need for change and actually has tried to foment some.

Legislative enthusiasts such as the commission’s chairman state Sen. Jack Donahue also can be counted on to run with these. In remarks related to the release of the report, Donahue urged the Legislature as a whole to review and act where appropriate on the report’s conclusions. That, however, even with Jindal’s assistance, will shape up as a tough sell for many items.

This is because they are frightening efficient and truly revolutionary in the context of policy in Louisiana today and historically. For example, the report advises giving no pay raises to state classified employees who garner a middle (“meets expectation”) rating, closing out almost all dedicated funds in the near future, that only accredited nongovernmental organizations receive state appropriations and cannot contract with the state for a year for functions similar to those vetoed by the governor, shifting of health care responsibilities away from state institutions, that elementary and secondary education spending follow pupils and not districts, that those able-bodied recipients of public housing assistance either work or train to do so, moving the state retirement systems from a defined-benefit to defined-contribution system (including the phasing out of the DROP system), and eliminating the state’s public insurer Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation and return that function to its previous quasi-governmental administration.

All of these alterations with the exception of the first would require legislation that might be difficult to extract from the Legislature. Individually, too many legislators have too many sacred cows – NGOs, the education establishment, state employees, the “poor,” contractors, etc. – which all together might add up to resistant majorities for true change. Despite Donahue’s plea, for these kinds of things, the leadership will not be forthcoming from the Legislature.

But it can provide for some success if it comes from Jindal. The governor has been excellent in getting unglamorous yet significant changes that promise substantial cost savings enacted in the executive branch. Yet it he really wants to go for the home run, he needs to go after at least some of these. He has shown that he will strategically use the inconvenient fact of budgetary stress to pursue a reform agenda that he articulated during the campaign, so there is reason to believe he will back visibly these kinds of improvements which is the only shot they have of becoming policy.

To date, this means that Jindal has done an adequate job of fulfilling his promise of making the state use taxpayer resources more efficiently. However, if he wants to earn the label as the governor who has had the most enduring impact on the state in history – along with Prisoner #03128-095 and Huey P. Long and unlike them for the better – his opportunity and moment have arrived with the political capital provided by this report.

Landrieu deal can't make silk purse out of sow's ear bill

In reference to what has become known as the “Louisiana Purchase” by Sen. Mary Landrieu, a recent effort by an opinion columnist reminds us of the folly of losing sight of the forest for the trees.

Last month, Landrieu faced derision when revealed that she had dropped objections to a health care bill in the Senate that promises higher premiums and taxes with reduced quality of care when she had secured attachment to the bill of a provision that could bring the state as much as $300 million to next fiscal year’s Medicaid program. Despite the widespread criticism she expressed pride in her ability to extract this concession.

Apparently, one Stephanie Grace seems convinced by Landrieu. She writes that Landrieu followed the norms of expected legislative behavior and did it well enough to “solve” a particular problem. But as soon as the reader is informed of this, Grace senses something is wrong with her argument because she immediately goes on to write that, in the scheme of getting goodies tucked into the bill, what Landrieu did was “more defensible” than some deals made by her colleagues.

Murray exit makes Democrats calmer, Landrieu favorite

From a questionable position, suddenly Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu can be considered the favorite to do what he could not four years ago, win the New Orleans mayor’s contest, perhaps by being the beneficiary of larger forces.

As noted previously, even with his long experience and family name, Landrieu could not be considered the favorite for the spot unless no high-quality black opponent emerged, somebody with elective policy-making experience in government. Several passed on it, but one who got in the chase was state Sen. Edwin Murray and seemed like the best bet to make a runoff against Landrieu, who unexpectedly entered the fray less than a month ago. If so, an enormous edge in black voting registration would have made it difficult for Landrieu to secure the win.

However, Murray with little warning pulled out of the race, leaving only three black candidates that have any real opportunity to make a runoff – former judge Nadine Ramsey, activist James Perry, and businessman Troy Henry. Only Ramsey has ever run and won a political office, unopposed in three terms as a judge so she really has no successful competitive campaign experience. Murray hinted that difficulty in raising funds since the entrance of Landrieu led to what he thought would be a personally too-expensive race for him as well as he cited the potential for “racially divisive” rhetoric becoming a feature of the race.

In other words, Murray may have been a victim of national political trends that may have made Democrats look bad. Given his entrance just prior to his sister Sen. Mary Landrieu’s crucial votes to allow health care legislation that would raise premiums, taxes, and lower the quality of care to advance, it’s theorized that part of Mary’s motivation for supporting the bad legislation was promises for Democrat fat cats to contribute to Mitch and not to Murray. Then, Murray fell on his sword to prevent Democratic infighting that might damage the already rapidly-souring Democrat hopes later in 2010.

Unless one of the remaining black candidates can hurriedly demonstrate some major fundraising prowess, the election environment otherwise will create momentum for some blacks, who almost double up on whites in the electorate, to go with Landrieu and discourage others from turning out, giving Landrieu the ability to win. Henry might be the best placed, being an outsider of government with a successful business background to contrast with the insider Landrieu and the current regime running the city into the ground again.

The problem is, the one who is encouraging the present follies in city government was before assuming the city’s top job was an outsider with a business background, Mayor Ray Nagin. New Orleanians historically put insiders into the position so the chance they took on Nagin, twice, may have soured them on the kind of candidate that is Henry.

Regardless, Landrieu’s biggest obstacle is out of the way and unless something happens soon where support suddenly coalesces around a black candidate, he has established himself as the most likely to collect eventually on his dream post.