Landrieu should not count on early Jindal departure

One presumed motive of Democrat Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu’s decision not to run for mayor of New Orleans is that he could succeed to the governorship of the state sooner rather than later. However, this is not a realistic scenario.

If Landrieu’s ambitions include being governor, Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal’s exit by 2015 leaves him a decent opportunity to try for it, yet also risking the rise of other younger Democrats not seen as ossified into a do-nothing job as is Landrieu now. But if Landrieu can ascend to the office by Jindal’s early departure, this definitely keeps him at the forefront of Democrat possibilities for the governorship.

The problem with this strategy, however, is that Jindal, especially if he seeks executive branch national office, is unlikely to leave earlier than the end of his second term. There’s no way Jindal would challenge sitting Republican Sen. David Vitter next year; indeed, he has pledged campaign support. More likely would be taking a shot at Mitch’s older sister Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu in 2014, but only if it seems a 2016 bid for vice president or president would seem unreasonable.

While Jindal may run for president in 2012, for a number of reasons this is quite unlikely primarily the timing of a reelection run for governor in 2011, so the most likely situation of early exit would be accepting a vice presidential nomination in 2012. Even here, this is a longshot unless the right circumstances manifest.

Since he is thought of as potential presidential timber and because of his relatively young age, no younger presidential candidate for the GOP would want Jindal on the ticket, not only to tamp down any potential rivalry, but also because younger nominees tend to pick those who are older and more experienced in national government, especially as almost every serious GOP believed candidate have backgrounds mostly in state government.

And as of now, the national party has a vacuum of nationally-experienced candidates considered in the running for the top job, due to a leadership that turned away from conservatism and thereby brought voter approbation and thus their rejection. About the only candidate now being discussed that would seem to be senior enough in terms of national stature, age, and ideology (the wavering from conservatism that brought defeat in 2008 probably will not make economic liberal former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee a likely nominee) might be former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Otherwise, Jindal’s characteristics pair poorly with other potential nominees, and keep in mind any GOP team with Jindal on it would have to win for Mitch Landrieu to get a payoff.

So if Landrieu is calculating he may benefit from a premature Jindal departure, he shouldn’t place much weighing on it, which is why the element of risk in his waiting to aspire out of his current office, which increases the chances he will become overshadowed by others, is higher than perhaps he and many others understand.