In a couple of weeks the federal government will release 2020 census data, setting states on course for reapportionment. But if as a result you’re a Democrat that begins fantasizing of a Louisiana sending two Democrats rather than one to the U.S. House of Representatives, you might want to stop reading right here.
Because that’s as likely to happen as a child dying of the Wuhan coronavirus. Despite such infinitely small chances, some false cheer along these lines has started circulate. By way of example, one source from the academic left played around with 2019 data used to make population estimates to come up with a map that makes three substantial district-wide changes: it ejects the western-most and eastern-most parishes of Congressional District 5 and extends it south into Baton Rouge while wrapping westward into north and central Shreveport and central Bossier City with its pivot in south Monroe; CD 4 picks up most of those western parishes, what’s left of Shreveport and Bossier City, and northern Monroe and West Monroe; and most of CD 6 shifts into the former eastern-most parishes of CD 4.
This would produce a new CD 5 with a 54 percent black majority as well as have a knock-on effect of lowering the existing CD 2 to 53 percent. The theory then goes both would elect a black Democrat to Congress.