tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102149512024-03-18T14:50:34.611-05:00Between The LinesJeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport. If you're an elected official, political operative or anyone else upset at his views, don't go bothering LSUS or LSU System officials about that because these are his own views solely.
This publishes five days weekly with the exception of 7 holidays. Also check out his Louisiana Legislature Log especially during legislative sessions (in "Louisiana Politics Blog Roll" below).Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.comBlogger4955125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-2510550215550613262024-03-18T14:50:00.001-05:002024-03-18T14:50:00.133-05:00Monroe race to see if Ellis portends trend<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">By this time next week, we’ll know if independent Monroe
Mayor <a href="https://fridayellis.com/">Friday Ellis</a> was a canary in the coal
mine for Democrats or just lightning in a bottle.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2020/07/monroe-mayor-result-hard-to-replicate.html">In
2020</a>, Ellis unexpectedly defeated Democrat former long-time Mayor Jamie
Mayo and other candidates to win as a white candidate in a solidly
black-majority electorate. However, that may have had more to do with Mayo, who
is black, than anything else, whose sometimes odd actions made white voters increasingly
suspicious of his leadership and black voters less enthusiastic about him.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On election day – which occurred in July rather
than March because of Wuhan coronavirus pandemic restrictions and which might
have affected turnout – Ellis won in a 63 percent black constituency. White
voter turnout appeared substantially higher than black, although overall it was
a healthy over 40 percent. Still, in precincts where blacks comprised at least
90 percent of the vote, Ellis picked up 15 percent while Mayo barely garnered
two-thirds, demonstrating greater crossover appeal for white candidates than
traditionally.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A rerun of sorts is on tap this time, with Mayo
trying to get his old job back in a city now with a 67 percent black majority,
against Ellis up for reelection and a stronger black Democrat alternative than
in 2020 in the form of Democrat city School Board Member <a href="https://www.bettywardcooper.org/">Betty Ward Cooper</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This time, Ellis has a record and the Democrats
have tried pounding him on that, <a href="https://www.hannapub.com/ouachitacitizen/news/local_state_headlines/monroe-mayoral-candidates-take-swipes-at-forum/article_bd67ca78-cb72-11ee-9c8b-f3ad12446bce.html">especially
when it comes to crime</a>. For years, across a variety of measuring gauges Monroe
has been close, if not at the top, of medium-sized and above cities in violent
crime, which hasn’t changed while Ellis has been in office. However, with 2022
as the <a href="https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend">latest
data available</a>, that rate has declined 12 percent since the year Ellis took
office while statewide it has gone down just two percent.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">At any rate, Ellis <a href="https://www.hannapub.com/ouachitacitizen/news/local_state_headlines/monroe-police-union-endorses-mayor-friday-ellis-for-second-term/article_cb8e3556-d662-11ee-8007-d7100f1bab29.html">resoundingly
nabbed the endorsement</a> of the Monroe Police Union. Cooper hasn’t reported
any spending, which may hamper her ability to present herself as a less-controversial
black Democrat alternative to Mayo, who last month found himself <a href="https://www.hannapub.com/ouachitacitizen/news/local_state_headlines/dawson-seeks-restraining-order-against-mayo/article_1e3a7cac-d667-11ee-a725-b349a7dfe421.html">accused
by a black Democrat city councilor of threatening her</a>, as well as has a
record to defend that may still linger in the minds of a number of voters. To
her restraining order he filed one, and a judge has ordered <a href="https://www.knoe.com/2024/03/14/mayoral-candidate-mayo-councilwoman-dawson-ordered-stay-away-each-other/">they
both stay away from each other for two years</a>, which might make working together
as elected city officials interesting but perhaps not amusing to voters.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This seemingly-favorable confluence of events bucks
an electorate less favorable to Ellis, in a contest which could confirm an ongoing
trend in national politics. Over the past few years, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-brian-p-kemp-stacey-abrams-politics-us-democratic-party-53d31c9c8a87231d00784b6effa8d59e">non-white
voters have shown more openness to supporting Republicans</a>, and <a href="https://www.hannapub.com/ouachitacitizen/news/local_state_headlines/monroe-police-union-endorses-mayor-friday-ellis-for-second-term/article_cb8e3556-d662-11ee-8007-d7100f1bab29.html">recent
polling confirms their slipping support for Democrats</a>. It’s possible that Ellis’
2020 triumph was that tip of the spear in Louisiana of greater black voter
comfort in voting for a white candidate, where in 2022 a white Republican in
Shreveport and white Democrat in Alexandria were elected by electorates where blacks
significantly outnumbered others.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">If Ellis can do it again this weekend, it could
prove he’s not a one-off, especially considering the other two cities have slightly
smaller black majorities. And it might demonstrate how white candidates, even
from the GOP, can win in jurisdictions with substantially more black voters
than any other race.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That trend could be confirmed further with a
victory in Caddo Parish in its overtime sheriff’s contest. In an evenly divided
electorate by race, white Republican former Shreveport City Councilor <a href="https://johnnickelson.com/">John Nickelson</a> stands a decent chance of triumphing
over black Democrat former city chief administrative officer Henry Whitehorn.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Change or continuity in local election voting
behavior? In Louisiana, the answer will start coming shortly.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-9377260564662033952024-03-14T16:20:00.001-05:002024-03-14T16:20:13.556-05:00Keep LA away from flawed ranked choice voting<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">A Louisiana Senate panel has <a href="https://www.thecentersquare.com/louisiana/article_94846a90-e174-11ee-bf92-f391befaf980.html">sent
on its way to needed passage</a> a bill emulating law in several states that
will help to ensure more coherent governance and more faithful translation of
aggregate voter preferences.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1349264">SB 101</a> by
Republican state Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=22">Blake
Miguez</a> would prohibit ranked choice voting (RCV) for any election in
Louisiana (save votes cast by military personnel overseas as by federal law in
order to provide an “instant runoff”). <a href="https://www.csg.org/2023/03/21/ranked-choice-voting-what-where-why-why-not/">There
are many varieties</a> to the concept, but basically it involves an electoral
structure where all candidates by or regardless of party affiliation (if any)
run together in an initial or only election, and then lower-ranking candidates
are eliminated in either vote computation or by ballot redistribution.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Louisiana with its blanket primary actually uses a
very diluted form of this. The initial general election eliminates all but two
candidates by vote computation where the two highest then compete in a runoff election,
unless one candidate receives a majority.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But the form most often associated with is concept
in the U.S. is for single-position contests, whether for office or a partisan
nomination, where only a single election occurs and voters rank order
candidates. At the counting phase, unless someone has obtained an outright
majority, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated and
those voters’ second choices then are redistributed to the remaining candidates.
The iterative process continues until a candidate receives a majority of all
votes, whether redistributed.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Theoretically, the system is sold as doing a
better job of echoing voter preferences because it allows for gradations of
support rather than an all-or-nothing choice. Entire reliance on first choices
could mask more general support for other candidates. Yet therein lies the
fatal flaw for it as well.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The system assumes within a voter’s mind that
gradations between candidates and intensities of support are monotonic. That
is, let’s say there are five candidates for one position, and that in the voter’s
mind he grades out, with 0 being entirely unacceptable, 25 as annoying, 50 as
indifferent, 75 as acceptable, and 100 as enthusiastically supporting,
candidates of a scale of 0-100.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In this hypothetical election with the
hypothetical voter, his preferences are congruent with the assumptions behind
RCV if he grades candidate A at 100, B at 75, C at 50, D at 25, and E at 0. But
what if he grades A at 100, but B at 90, C at 50, D at 30, and E at 0? His
ballot would reflect less support for B and D that he truly feels because the ballot
scaling involved (called Likert scaling) imposes an intensity in preference
ordering – same distance between all candidates – that may not match the voter’s.
This could wash out in the aggregate – say another voter ranks things as A=0,
B=10, C=50, D=70, E=100 – but there’s no guarantee of that and in fact is highly
unlikely in a system where there are vast differentials in resources to inform voters
about specific candidates, as well as vast differences in specific voter
capacities to evaluate candidates.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This can create incongruities, if not
perversities, in outcomes. For example, let’s use the above example where A and
E are quality candidates identifying with opposing major parties, B and D are
somewhat lesser candidates identifying with the same opposing major parties,
and C is a no party candidate. Resource-rich A and E campaign heavily, B and D
aren’t as fortunate but they do get the word out, and C does little. When the
votes are in, no candidate has a majority, A and E lead the way as they attract
most partisan support, B and D drag the rear with some partisan support, lagging
C who picked up mainly nonpartisan support and attracted the bulk of his votes
precisely because most voters knew little more about him than he wasn’t a
Republican or Democrat. In this scenario, either B or D is dropped and his
votes reallocated, leaving the other at the rear and next to be culled.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Prior to dropping the last of B or D, the vote was
A at 40 percent, E at 30 percent, C at 20 and the other at 10 percent. But let’s
say A and E were bitterly opposed by B or D supporters and they overwhelmingly
had C as their second choice, chosen simply because he wasn’t A or E. So, in
this redistribution, C narrowly jumps ahead of E, and A remains around 40
percent. And say C was the third choice for A and E supporters – B and D
respectively being their second but those now are unavailable as sorting
targets. So, what next happens is E is eliminated but as those voters almost
exclusively had C as the next viable choice, C ends up winning 60-40 – not because
many voters truly preferred him or even knew who he was, but because he was the
least disliked by partisans on both sides as well as the least known and acted
as an empty vessel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">And this scenario furthered can be skewed by removing
the assumption that all voters use, in this example, all five of their votes. Some
may give only their first choice, perhaps out of ineptitude in understanding the
system or that they strongly dislike all other candidates. Others may not fill
out all five choices for similar reasons. If so, a significant amount of roll-off
may occur – the final vote count much less than the total votes cast – which
leads to many voters not even having a say when it comes to the final result
when a candidate achieves a simple majority. In fact, <a href="https://alaskapolicyforum.org/2020/10/failed-experiment-rcv/">this has
been observed in typical RCV-structured elections in America</a>, with the
least educated and informed voters disproportionately likely to roll off.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">To some degree, these shortcomings can be made
less relevant either by having a strong party system that can educate and
encourage voters about candidates and the navigation of the complexity of RCV-based
elections or by filling (for plenary bodies) offices through proportional representation
– or both, as the two often go hand in hand. But we don’t have PR in America
nor strong parties, and especially in Louisiana with the country’s weakest.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Indeed, introducing RCV would be a disaster for
policy-making in Louisiana, which already suffers from a high degree of
personalism in politics focusing too much on candidate attributes and too
little on ideology. This is precisely what makes the system so vulnerable to
special interests and more resistant to accountability and responsiveness. RCV
only would exacerbate this by degrading party – a glue that holds candidates
together to focus them on following an agenda on which they campaigned in
common rather than as individuals trying to service parochial interests – and increasing
the importance of personalistic campaigning and governing.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Thus, it’s best to forestall RCV use. In an
election system like Louisiana has – which would benefit from closed primaries for
all contests for precisely the same reasons RCV would be harmful, given the
state’s political culture, as it strengthens party – aggregate voter preferences
become best translated into coherent policy through its first-past-the-post
structure than would RCV. This justifies SB 101 becoming law.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-10684896774292356722024-03-13T15:20:00.005-05:002024-03-13T15:21:09.252-05:00End traffic laws more money grabs than for safety<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Finally, Louisiana has a real chance to end a pair
of burdensome laws dealing with vehicle operation that masquerade as safety
measures but in reality exist primarily to fatten government coffers.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2017/05/panel-refuses-to-halt-la-inspection.html">2017</a>,
then <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2019/05/useless-la-inspection-fee-needs.html">2019</a>,
then <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1163220">2020</a>,
and now this year Republican state Rep. <a href="https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Reps/members.aspx?ID=7">Larry Bagley</a>
has tried to alter, if not jettison, non-commercial periodic vehicle
inspections except in cases where federal law requires it for air pollution
controls. This year’s <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1349908">HB 344</a> does
that. Some states don’t require any inspections, while about two-thirds enforce
an emissions check at some point, mostly at transfer. <a href="https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/vehicle-inspections-by-state/">Few follow
Louisiana’s model</a> by asking for full safety checks.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That makes sense, given the <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2015/02/la-inspection-tax-by-another-name-needs.html">considerable
advances in vehicle safety</a> and that public safety officers still will have
the authority to cite motorists driving in visibly unsafe vehicles (inspections
only address these items). The only real beneficiaries of the state’s current
testing regime are the state and contracted testers, who rake $10 a year off owners
for the exercise (and some testers merely go through the motions anyway).<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Their opposition to date has prevented the repeal.
Hopefully, the GOP supermajorities in each chamber – and a friendly push from
Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff
Landry</a> – will convince legislators with feet of clay to resist the special
interests against and finally get rid of this useless law that only serves to
beggar the citizenry.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Another similarly needless practice also should be
disallowed. While a number of bills have been introduced that would circumscribe
the practice, the best bill addressing the use of speed enforcement cameras is <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1346769">SB 21</a> by GOP
state Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=31">Alan Seabaugh</a>,
which would prohibit their use entirely.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://louisianaradionetwork.com/2024/03/04/35903/">Long-standing
arguments compellingly favor the bill’s intent</a>. Unfairly, if not
unconstitutionally, the cited vehicle owner, not actual driver, faces any legal
consequences without any real-time peace officer witnessing. The for-profit
operators have poor track records in ensuring proper operating equipment and legally
when cameras may be in service and with providing recourse to cited vehicle owners
to challenge the citation prior to court appearances (the Shreveport part of
Seabaugh’s district having become <a href="https://www.ktalnews.com/news/local-news/arceneaux-blue-line-solutions-has-corrected-issues-with-speed-cameras/">embroiled
in controversy</a> over these matters last year with cameras operating around
school zones). And, specifically to Louisiana, fines collected this way skip
the otherwise-mandated use of traffic violation receipts that go to local law
enforcement agencies and courts that shortchange these agencies and require
taxpayers to make up the difference. Indeed, in areas where local governments
employ these this particularly can bedevil <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/02/changes-only-can-improve-la-public.html">cash-strapped
public defenders.</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As in the case of vehicle inspections, the
practice continues because local governments want money and see this as a way to
avoid trimming expenses and/or raising taxes, and ally with their contractors
to pressure legislators into retaining it, particularly pitching the argument
that it promotes safety. This is the <a href="https://710keel.com/camera-ban-bill-louisiana/">tack taken by the Caddo
Parish Commission</a>, which plans to initiate such a program on parish roads.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">If an outright ban doesn’t find majority support,
then if objectors <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/01/use-speed-cameras-for-safety-only-not.html">really
mean it’s all about safety</a>, they should support an amendment that allows
this kind of enforcement to continue but with any proceeds beyond paying off
contractors reverting solely to district attorneys, public defenders, and district
courts – the law should provide no financial advantage whatsoever to local
governments who choose to conduct these programs. Opposition to that would
expose them as the hypocrites they are.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While the total ban is best, at the very least the
Legislature should pass a law that doesn’t let local governments take financial
advantage of the situation and others that place requirements on conducting
such enforcement that in practical terms would restrict severely usage. This
money grab by local governments that insults citizens’ constitutional
protections and impoverishes judicial activities must be severely curtailed, if
not halted entirely.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-42239364550343217212024-03-12T18:37:00.004-05:002024-03-12T18:37:44.158-05:004 years in, recall LA pandemic villains, heroes <p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Four years ago, the largest single mistake in U.S.
public health history began its commencement, leaving former Democrat Gov. John
Bel Edwards to manufacture the most unsavory portion of his legacy, along with
others.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">With a paucity of information about the Wuhan
coronavirus in mid-March, 2020, it’s difficult to fault the extreme steps taken
initially over the next few months. These comprised of closing schools, closing
of all but the smallest public gatherings, restricting commercial activities,
and requiring social distancing including face coverings.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://www.city-journal.org/article/harvard-tramples-the-truth">Yet
within three months</a> it had become clear enough that much of this was or had
been ineffective. Because the virus was quite selective in who got hit hardest –
those with co-morbidities, followed by the elderly – the overwhelming majority
of the public, and especially children, would face no more than an inconvenient
respiratory virus of relatively short duration. In this time span, it became
clear that these punitive measures Edwards imposed for the <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/03/edwards-pandemic-response-adds-to.html">vast
majority cost much more than any benefits that might accrue</a> – learning and
developmental loss among children, tremendous economic dislocation, and assaults
on personal liberties.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Alternative models already existed for Edwards’
consideration by the time the 2020 school year commenced. Internationally, on
almost every measure the light touch practiced by Sweden avoided these costs.
Nationally, <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/04/study-underscores-edwards-pandemic.html">other
states’ governors far less severely locked down their states and reaped the
same benefits</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Edwards made matters worse, when availability
arrived by the end of the year, by imposing unnecessary and intrusive
vaccination policies on adults and worst of all on children without
co-morbidities. The research has shown because of the extremely low benefit for
children that becomes microscopic for those below the age of 5 since almost
none suffer more than minorly, because detrimental side effect risks remained,
even if very low in probability, overall children were put at unnecessary risk
with vaccinations.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2021/10/lsu-admits-bankruptcy-of-its-vaccine.html">Even
if he backed off</a> from his goal of forcing vaccinations and/or frequent testing
on state employees for its impracticality and bad optics (by the fall of 2021),
for a time he tried to strongarm educational institutions into forcing their employees
and students to have the same. Colleges were allowed free rein, and they
stupidly did, to impose such rules. Worse, he pushed through a rule forcing
that vaccination on school children that, again, proved so at odds with the science
and public that only months later he <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/10/edwards-politicized-kid-jab-flip-flop.html">had
to retreat sheepishly</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Chalk up his enthusiasm for defying the science to
his leftist impulse towards command and control, where mandates increased
government power. As well, being a politician who focused more on retaining power
than in deferring it to allow individuals greater autonomy, he fell prey to the
<a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/12/clearer-still-edwards-virus-policy-cost.html">zero
COVID fantasy</a> and attendant <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/02/27/10-myths-told-by-covid-experts-now-debunked/">myths</a>
(such as acquired immunity wasn’t as good as vaccination, vaccines would prevent
spread, and a host of others) to stave of fear that his political standing
would be injured significantly with every single death that could be traced
back to the virus.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Which <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/12/clearer-still-edwards-virus-policy-cost.html">ended
up spreading blood on his hands</a>. While overaggressive pandemic policies may
have saved some lives, statistics would verify over time that on net they cost
more. People couldn’t access crucial medical interventions and restrictions
produced mental stress that, the data showed, led to Louisiana ranking among
the highest in excess deaths not attributable directly to the virus.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It’s not like any of these warts and alternative
approaches to his weren’t known within months of the pandemic descending, yet
for the next couple of years that he continued to insist on strict measures (and
ineffective ones; besides indicating that through the links in this post and
the links within those, there’s <a href="https://www.thecentersquare.com/louisiana/covid-derails-progress-made-by-new-orleans-charter-schools/article_f94595fc-1d73-11ec-9a60-b30889ed6f54.html">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.city-journal.org/new-study-finds-covid-lockdowns-had-no-benefit">here</a>,
<a href="https://issuesinsights.com/2022/02/11/its-time-to-ask-were-any-of-the-covid-mandates-closures-lockdowns-worth-it/">here</a>,
<a href="https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/universities-covid-policies-defy">here</a>,
and <a href="https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-on-covid-vaccines-and/comments">here</a>,
among many others). Unfortunately, he had many other enablers who either didn’t
stand up to speak necessary truth to power, or who actively aided him in leaving
this miserable legacy.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">If it was Edwards who had blood on his hands from
his pandemic policy, the <i>apparatchik</i> most responsible for handing him
the knife was former state epidemiologist Joe Kanter. He came to the office a
few months into the pandemic when it was peaking, upon the previous occupant
resigning for what he said were personal reasons (who <a href="https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/meet-executive-leading-unitedhealthcares-social-determinants-strategy">months
later took a private sector job on the east coast</a>). If Edwards was wanting
a yes man to add a veneer of respect to his decisions, he found the right guy.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Kanter <a href="https://twitter.com/joekanter">supplied
full-throated support</a> to a number of now-discredited policy choices by
Edwards, with whom he shares political ideology. He kept up a drumbeat of <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2020/10/bogus-reasons-behind-edwards-virus.html">alarmist
rhetoric</a> that never panned out and acted as chief cheerleader for every
restriction or as <a href="https://www.ktbs.com/news/new-guidelines-louisiana-public-school-students-wont-have-to-quarantine-after-covid-exposure/article_c130d11c-2175-11ec-ab5f-3fefeac6ef32.html">thugee
trying to suppress dissent</a>. Even as recently as a year ago, in his official
capacity he was pimping vaccination for infants. He didn’t last two months into
Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a>’s
term, either or both because Landry couldn’t stomach his policy preferences and
history or he knew because of that Landry would show him the door sometime soon;
regardless, he has been shamelessly <a href="https://www.audacy.com/wwl/news/local/states-top-doc-joe-kanter-steps-down-as-landry-steps-in">unrepentant
to the end</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">If Kanter was Edwards’ <i>consigliere</i> in the
unfolding poor and unscientific policy choices, a pair of milquetoast Republican
legislative leaders ended up facilitating these. Former House Speaker Clay
Schexnayder and former Sen. Pres. Page Cortez, despite multiple opportunities
offered by their party members, did little to put up resistance to Edwards’
agenda. They allowed many bills that would have clipped Edwards’ wings, if not
reverse his moves, either to <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/05/la-gop-leadership-not-pursuing-popular.html">die
in their chambers</a> or <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2021/07/edwards-bill-massacre-signals-go-big-or.html">didn’t
back their revival</a> as part of veto override votes. They even refused until
too late to back a <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2020/10/gop-legislators-defy-edwards-their.html">petition
that could have done the same</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While a number of almost exclusively Republicans
in the legislature and in some local governments did their best to overcome Edwards’
destructive pandemic agenda, one prominent appointed official stood out
heroically: Superintendent of Education <a href="https://www.louisianabelieves.com/resources/about-us/meet-the-department-of-education">Cade
Brumley</a>, who didn’t assume the post until a couple of months into the
pandemic. He defied Edwards and Kanter by refusing to order students out of
classrooms statewide after the last couple months of the 2020 academic year, leaving
it up to districts to decide, and he eventually he scrapped the rule that said
students without symptoms but who had family members come down with the virus couldn’t
attend in-person instruction.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In fact, as a result of Brumley’s decisions, Louisiana
students’ learning weathered better than just about any states’ students in the
pandemic period, and the dismal overall rankings the state received for
pandemic policy didn’t hit bottom solely because its education policy
performance turned out near the top. (I was anything but his many media critics,
but if it helps, “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/louisiana-education-chief-celebrates-unpopular-decision-keep-kids-class-after-covid-fallout">OK,
Brumley was right</a>”).</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Four years have passed, and what did and didn’t
work and who were the responsible villains and heroes need public refreshing so
that those whose moves disserved the state and those moves don’t get lost in a
memory hole (a binning no doubt encouraged by those at fault) that would hinder
future publics from avoiding the same mistakes again.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-62843399928624612912024-03-11T14:40:00.002-05:002024-03-11T14:42:15.102-05:00Landry address brings welcome new tone, ideas<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">What a breath of fresh air Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a> brought
to Louisiana with his first <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCAB23XDUlU">State of the State Address</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Over the past eight years, Democrat former Gov.
John Bel Edwards used these annual opportunities to harangue Louisianans,
telling them through a litany of bad policy preferences drawing his rhetorical
support that they had to shape up by doing this, that, or the other – and
whatever these things were, they were not appealing to our better instincts,
but delivered as orders from an overseer to his chattel with government-centric
options leading the way. Orwellian language abounded, with tax increases termed
as “revenue enhancements,” increased spending as “investments,” and <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/11/edwards-leaves-la-worse-off-than-he.html">depopulation,
declining job numbers, and more able-bodied adults sitting out the labor force </a>as
markers of economic success.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">By great contrast, Landry’s maiden address
discussed how government was to facilitate individuals’ abilities to enrich their
life prospects by reserving its activities to its proper sphere. While he didn’t
go into details, he drew upon a governing philosophy alien to the liberal
populism of Edwards and his predecessors spanning nearly a previous century – keeping
the citizenry safe from deviant human behavior and the vagaries of nature (by
using evidence-based approaches), building and maintaining cost-effective and
value-driven infrastructure, providing economic incentives that lead to people making
choices for productive behavior that contributes to improving society’s overall
well-being, and limiting redistribution of what government takes from producers
only to those whose physical circumstances or paucity of innate abilities or
whom have suffered genuine bad luck, who cannot contribute in that fashion.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Preferring to draw upon broader themes with strategic
use of data to support his views, he drew attention to three policy areas, all
of which exemplified his approach that in policy-making government should
empower people by not empowering itself. In elementary and secondary education,
which he identified as the prequel to economic improvement, noting how the
state ranks lowly (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/education">among the
bottom ten</a>) while <a href="https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/public-education-crossroads.pdf">spending
more per pupil than many states</a>, he advocated for a diminution of the
government monopoly model that narrows families’ educational options, constrains
teachers, and encourages faddish orthodoxies at the expense of real learning.
He backed education savings accounts, where money follows the student, and
enhancing choice as the means by which to accomplish this transformation.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Landry also commented upon the state’s stifling
approach to occupational licensing, calling upon streamlining and jettisoning unnecessary
rules. The state <a href="https://ij.org/report/license-to-work-3/report/results/ranking-burdens-by-state/">regulates
more jobs than any other state</a> (as well as making it difficult to transfer
licenses from elsewhere) and according to one watchdog organization in overall
terms ranks sixth most onerous. And, he emphasized that the state’s property
insurance struggles could be solved through lifting unnecessarily burdensome regulation.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">However, Landry sees the degree of corrective
state policy as beyond statute. In addition to these policy preferences, he
also called upon the Legislature to establish parameters for a constitutional
convention next year, a document he sees as too protective of certain special interests
that needlessly complicates and constricts governing.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As well, Landry noted how some quarters – read leftists
and Democrats whose rearguard actions over the past two decades to preserve
liberal populism in governance have been breached in 2024’s first two months with
the crevasse ever widening – complained that his policy changes, by executive
action and legislative agreement, supposedly moved too quickly, to which he had
an answer: when so far behind (implying that these forces had caused that), you
had to run faster to catch up.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Landry appears to have recognized from the moment
of his early general election win two important things about executive success:
move quickly and use a big majority, which he had at the polls and has in the
Legislature, to make big changes. Whatever momentum loss he may have experienced
from the first reapportionment special session that disgruntled some of his GOP
legislative allies by having to inflict a partisan loss upon their party, he
regained quickly in the second special session focusing on crime solutions. His
address presaged more big moves to come, and more heartburn for his ideological
opponents.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-36882585603525678052024-03-07T20:50:00.002-06:002024-03-07T21:23:58.474-06:00Jerry Parnell Payne, 1942-2024<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">In the world of politics,<a href="https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/haughton-la/jerry-payne-11693460">
Jerry Payne</a> didn’t particularly care to advertise his own role; he just
wanted to get results and usually did.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Anybody involved in electioneering in northwest
Louisiana over the past few decades knew of Jerry. He first entered politics
through his lifelong and perhaps best friend, Republican former Gov. Buddy
Roemer, when Roemer started his political career through election as a delegate
to the 1973 Constitutional Convention. Jerry would continue to work with Roemer
as the latter ascended the ladder up to the governorship.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Actually, their initial collaboration came in the
field of data management. For the first quarter-century or so of his work life,
Jerry served as an administrator mainly dealing with systems for tracking and processing
financial transactions that would send him out of state for years at a time. For
that reason, he never took a role in the Roemer Administration even though he
was asked as a significant figure in Roemer’s defeat of Democrat former Gov.
Edwin Edwards.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Election consulting remained a sideline of his until
the latter part of Roemer’s term, when he finally committed full time. Once he
did, he became phenomenally successful, enabling a couple of hundred ideologically-eclectic
collection of candidates mainly from Caddo and Bossier Parishes to win elective
office nine out of ten times over the next two decades.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That remained largely unknown to any but area
political activists, because Jerry wasn’t the kind of guy who did things to publicize
his role. Some area consultants would be fixtures in the media, but not him.
Nor did he really attempt to branch out beyond area contests, despite his rate
of success (although when younger and working in Birmingham, he did get
involved in a historic mayor’s race there, which his candidate narrowly lost).</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">He began to taper his activities after he became a
widower, and in fact would survive a cancer scare himself. He hung on as a Democrat
while the national party, followed by its state version, began its sprint to
the far left that increasingly disdained his strong Christian beliefs. Helping
him transition more towards the partisan center (a journey <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2018/01/lou-gehrig-burnett-1941-2018.html">more
than one area figure involved in politics would experience</a>) was the presence
in his life of his second wife Madonna, who before her return to Bossier City
had become involved in GOP politics.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In actuality, I got to know Jerry not really in
the realm of politics, as we rarely had rubbed elbows since my arrival in the
area which was about when he went full time into consulting, but more because he
and Madonna were friends of my wife’s family from their church. They joined
others (including his brother and sister-in-law) in their Sunday school class
that committed to helping out my wife, and me by extension.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Unfortunately, his greatest test came in his last
years when he suffered a particularly debilitating stroke (as cruelly, <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2021/05/charles-elson-buddy-roemer-iii-1943-2021.html">Roemer
had the same happen to him</a>) seven years ago that left him having to live in
a nursing home. Things got rougher still when the pandemic hit to close off his
world even more and family members faced their own health challenges, but he
hung in there.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Jerry this week assuredly gained a richly-deserved
reward, leaving a lasting legacy in area and state politics and as a person.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-59733611216896690742024-03-06T21:35:00.003-06:002024-03-06T21:35:28.957-06:00Session must plug holes in LA voting integrity<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">With Super Tuesday in the rearview mirror,
Louisiana’s presidential primary and other elections straight ahead, and the
2024 Regular Session of the Louisiana Legislature to start soon, now is a good
time for Louisiana to review its ballot integrity as <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/voter-identification-states-law-map-rcna137555">other
states surpass it on this account</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Historically, the state has done well compared to
others in terms of votes cast under the name of an individual being cast by
that individual, who is a citizen residing at the address registered. It was
one of the early adopters of photo identification and positive identification
upon registering and at the polls.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">However, while one can <a href="https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/RegisterToVote/Pages/default.aspx">register
to vote</a> online or mail that mandates eventual photographic identification preferably
in the form of a driver’s license or special identification card (which require
other documents assuring an accurate identity) also acceptable is any photo ID
and some other documentation containing name and address. Presentation of verified photo ID also isn’t
needed when registering at a site that dispenses government benefits and the
registerer also receives those benefits.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Magnifying the threat to ensuring that <a href="https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/Vote/Pages/default.aspx">caster
of a vote</a> is an actual individual accurately registered to vote as that
individual is that one can vote without a government picture ID backed by
definitive identification. The state can issue one with positive picture
identification from another source, but, even more troubling, a person can vote
in Louisiana without any picture ID at all by swearing an affidavit and
answering correctly identifying information enrolled a registration.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It's <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2012/09/lame-remarks-need-not-deter-la-from.html">not
hard to beat such a system</a>. For example, a political operative could gather
information from people at a congregate setting, perhaps with the cooperation
of their relatives, then send in imposters on election day who provided with
the correct information when quizzed successfully impersonate the registrant. The
same could occur with college students out of state.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For that reason, Louisiana is <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id">classified</a>
among the states by the National Conference of State Legislatures as “photo ID
requested,” as opposed to its more stringent categorization of “strict photo
ID,” such as in Georgia where a voter must present a Georgia driver’s license
(even if expired), or an ID card issued by the state of Georgia or the federal
government; or a free voter ID card issued by the state or county (like
Louisiana’s); or a U.S. passport; or a valid employee ID card containing a
photograph from any branch, department, agency, or entity of the U.S.
Government, Georgia, or any county, municipality, board, authority or other
entity of the state; or a valid U.S. military identification card; or a valid
tribal photo ID. If not, the voter casts a provision ballot that is counted
only if the person returns to the registrar’s office within three working days
with the acceptable ID. This is the kind of law Louisiana should have.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Also leaky is Louisiana’s absentee voting rules. It’s
good in that it requires for <a href="https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/Pages/DisabledElderlyCitizens.aspx">most
individuals wanting to vote absentee a request to do so</a>, with three exceptions:
people with disabilities who are homebound, anybody age 65 or older, and
nursing home residents. Absentee ballots are sent automatically to the homebound
and can be for the elderly, while registrars visit nursing homes to solicit and
witness ballots cast. All such ballots must be witnessed.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Still, ballot harvesting can occur under these conditions,
even if state law says witnesses unrelated to voters may witness only one
ballot, because if parish election boards ignore this (<a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/12/court-clears-race-redo-likely-favoring.html">as
happened last year in Caddo</a> that caused overturning of the results of its
sheriff’s election) integrity measures can be defeated. Worse, unscrupulous
individuals can intercept or entice ballots and mark them without the knowledge
of voters. This can be countered by adopting a signature requirement like <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-14-how-states-verify-voted-absentee-mail-ballots">Mississippi</a>’s,
where the registrar checks the voter’s signature and invalidates those that
blatantly don’t match.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Fortunately, some legislation has been proposed to
ameliorate these problems, particularly Republican state Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=28">Heather Cloud</a>’s <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1352014">SB 226</a> that
forces election boards to follow the law in regards to required information on absentee
ballots. Still, nothing has been introduced to add a signature verification requirement.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Nor has anything been introduced that would
tighten photo ID requirements. That also would vault the state into the category
of best practices when it comes to voting integrity. There’s nothing more important
than elections that are as fraud-free as possible, because any fraudulent vote
stains the democratic process and people’s trust in government, and states should
do as much as possible to implement measures such as these that present next-to-no
burden on voters that accomplish this objective.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-11473686506636123702024-03-05T18:12:00.002-06:002024-03-05T18:12:21.078-06:00Events, data validating Landry troop deployment<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Critics, including intraparty ones, of Republican
Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a>’s
<a href="https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-texas-border-national-guard-11b8ac8372417aeffd2b704202c6080c">dispatch
of state National Guard troops to Texas</a> find their political positioning more
tenuous after a recent spate of high-profile arrests of illegal aliens.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Two weeks ago college student Riley Laken in Georgia
was murdered, allegedly by an illegal alien (an incident which Democrat Pres. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/president-biden/">Joe Biden</a>
<a href="https://wibc.com/282583/rep-banks-demands-president-biden-say-laken-rileys-name/">has
yet to address</a> even as <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-ignores-georgia-student-laken-riley-death-jose-ibarra-during-crime-speech-1874477">he
promotes legislation named after a habitual criminal</a>), focusing attention
on criminal activity by illegal aliens. Under Biden, the U.S. southern border
has become particularly porous, with <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12930845/Biden-migrant-border-statistics-Trump-immigration.html">such
crossings up 277 percent</a> under Biden compared to predecessor Republican <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/donald-j-trump/">Donald
Trump</a>. <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/criminal-noncitizen-statistics">Unfortunately</a>,
this jump during Biden’s third year in office has led to a 257 percent increase
in criminal noncitizen arrests compared to Trump’s third year in office; a 319
percent increase in assault, battery, and domestic violence; a 470 percent increase
in burglary, robbery, larceny, theft, and fraud; and homicides and manslaughter
going from 2 to 62, a 3,000 percent increase.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In response, Landry sent Louisiana troops to aid Texas
in its Operation Lone Star, designed to interdict illegal aliens from crossing over
state borders that has attracted like support from about a dozen states, for about
a month. The estimated cost of this could reach as much as $3 million.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In at least one instance, had Landry’s predecessor
Democrat John Bel Edwards done the same, perhaps tragedy in Louisiana could have
been prevented. Last week, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/illegal-alien-arrested-for-alleged-child-rape-stabbing-adult-in-face-during-armed-robbery-caused-terror">Kenner
police arrested</a> an illegal alien who had been in the country since 2022 on
rape and robbery charges. Police Chief Keith Conley outlined how having to deal
with such suspects strains policing, which could be vastly ameliorated with tighter
border security: “Lack of access to data, false identification and language
barriers put local law enforcement at a huge disadvantage. We cannot verify if
an illegal alien is giving correct information as it pertains to names and date
of births. It is not only a drain on police manpower, but a financial drain on
local law enforcement’s budgets and taxpayer’s money.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Thus, it makes far more sense to save Louisiana
local law enforcement and taxpayers these burdens up front by deploying troops
to help border states. But state Democrats, and even some Republicans, don’t
see it that way. When Landry announced his deployment initiative, GOP Sen. <a href="https://www.cassidy.senate.gov/about/about-bill/">Bill Cassidy</a><a href="https://louisianaradionetwork.com/2024/02/07/35482/"> critiqued the move</a>,
refusing to see it as cost-effective. Whether that is true will become apparent
when a Landry initiative to calculate costs of illegal immigration into
Louisiana reports back later this year, but anecdotal evidence suggests Cassidy’s
view will end up on the wrong side of the data.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://www.cassidy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cassidy-votes-to-stop-illegal-criminals/">Years
ago</a>, Cassidy made overt gestures against illegal immigration, and even now
still backs some <a href="https://www.cassidy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/icymi-cassidy-introduces-bill-to-stop-federal-tax-dollars-from-going-to-health-care-for-illegal-immigrants/">measures
that could discourage it</a>. But ever since his 2020 reelection where almost
immediately after that <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/03/poll-shows-kennedy-big-winner-cassidy.html">he
bet on public rejection of Trump</a> and smaller government that his actions
consistent to which to this point have backfired, he has been on the defensive
and now particularly in reelection trouble for 2026 when party primaries will
become installed. This latest incident doesn’t help his cause.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Nor that of other opponents of Landry’s
deployment. While there is a fascinating intramural debate over whether illegal
aliens are any more likely to commit crimes than legal immigrants or citizens –
the matter being caught up in arguments over <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/illegal-immigrant-crime-rates/">data
sources</a>, <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/illegal-immigrants-have-low-homicide-conviction-rate-setting-record-straight-illegal-immigrant">data
quality</a>, and <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/10306/silence-of-the-innocents-illegal-immigrants-underreporting-of-crime-and-their-victimization">data
reliability</a> – unimpeachably true is that more illegal aliens means more
crime. Costs from it certainly are lower if enforced at the front end – entry
into the country – than at the back end – responding to criminal behavior. Given
the statistics of arrests for criminal behavior, Landry’s policy that lends a
hand to enforcement likely is the most cost effective, putting opponents to
that on the back foot.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-16959323588025591982024-03-04T17:05:00.001-06:002024-03-04T17:05:42.475-06:00Make deals to reapportion LA Supreme Court<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a>’s special
legislative session turned out to be a massive success for him, save one goal –
to reapportion the state’s Supreme Court. For that to happen during the regular
session that starts next week, a little transactional politics may have to
occur.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Currently, the seven districts suffer from severe
malapportionment. Twice Landry, who has wanted this reapportionment for years,
found that part of his 2024 special session calls thwarted by Senate Republican
majorities.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/01/why-it-failed-part-ii-judicial-remap.html">first
try</a> was somewhat rushed, provoked criticism from two sitting justices, and
had the full Senate, which has a GOP supermajority, stall on it. The <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/02/another-supreme-court-map-failure.html">second
attempt</a> produced a somewhat better map that shifted the Second District,
which will be open later this year, over to the east and down the Mississippi
River that triggered somewhat less criticism for its rending of parishes (while
still doing quite a bit of meandering and damaging, splitting Ouachita,
Rapides, East Baton Rouge, and Lafayette Parishes), but GOP senators in committee
torpedoed it.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">During the first session, the effort became caught
up in congressional reapportionment, where Republicans felt they had to
surrender a seat to Democrats under judicial duress, and they were put off by being
asked in the case of the Court to so the same, as the new Second would have
become a majority-minority district highly favorable for Democrats. But the
feeling lingered in the second, with the <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1345859">few House votes against
it</a> almost all coming from representatives in those parishes along with the
panel rejection.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Importantly, nothing compels the state to do this.
While a law suit exists trying to force this creation of another M/M, and it
might cost the state a pretty penny to defend it, for it to succeed
jurisprudence about judicial district apportionment would have to shift radically
which seems highly unlikely. Without this threat, Republicans are reluctant to
surrender a seat on the Court, especially when any plan to do so creates a map
drawn primarily on the basis of race could bring its own constitutional
problems.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But maybe they’ll bargain for it. One way could be
to amend the Constitution to enable legislating into existence nine seats on
the Court. That would take the sting out for Republicans somewhat in allowing a
doubling of seats for Democrats by gaining one of their, as a nine-district
arrangement would bring. Better, the overall map would be less gerrymandered by
race. Bills to do this have been introduced.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">However, since an amendment requires two-thirds legislative
majorities, even a few GOP dissenters, unless Democrats want to sign on to this
deal (and <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/03/consent-decree-support-part-of-leftist.html">they
haven’t in the past</a>), would stymie this effort. Such a map still likely
would divide Ouachita, Rapides, and East Baton Rouge which may raise
objections.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It might take an extra or another incentive,
coming from the political left. Also, for years now, Landry has wanted to dissolve
the consent decree the state has operated under which imposes the M/M
single-member Seventh District. Quite correctly, he argues that the state very
well accepts this arrangement, and certainly the attempts to expand upon it
demonstrate even more starkly the state’s intentions. Indeed, the state’s
argument against continuing the decree, which will be <a href="https://lailluminator.com/2024/01/29/5th-circuit-will-rehear-case-that-created-louisianas-only-black-supreme-court-seat/">heard
by the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals</a> later this year, <a href="https://vhdshf2oms2wcnsvk7sdv3so.blob.core.windows.net/thearp-media/documents/LA_22-30320_182.pdf">in
part argues</a> its presence encourages the malapportionment.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet the defendants of the decree, who differ from
those suing about the Court districts, resist its termination. Perhaps if they
would relent, enough legislative Republicans might see their way to giving them
and the plaintiffs of the other suit what they want, two M/M districts. Whether
of seven or nine districts (the latter depending upon the people’s affirmative vote),
everybody would get what they want.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Leftist special interests and politicians should
make a deal along these lines. Otherwise, they almost certainly get nothing – no
map change as the special sessions have shown and the decree might be
terminated anyway by the judiciary – and cause taxpayers to pony up millions the
sole output of which lines lawyers’ pockets.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-83127922600541894622024-03-03T16:15:00.001-06:002024-03-03T16:15:51.770-06:00Shreveport Council Democrats aim at Arceneaux<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Shreveport Democrats’ plan to have the city’s
electorate dump Republican Mayor <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/509/Office-of-the-Mayor">Tom Arceneaux</a>
is fully afoot as they <a href="https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/selling-the-bond-issue-can-shreveport-officials-convince-residents-to-back-the-plan/article_0f17469c-d70c-11ee-837d-9f48fdf97be9.html">play
Russian roulette with the city’s water and sewerage system</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The city remains under a consent decree that will
demand hundreds of millions in spending to satisfy. Currently, <a href="https://cleanwatershreveport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023CleanWaterShreveportFallReport.pdf">$310.6
million worth of expenditures deemed critical need completion</a> – most of
which the city doesn’t have.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It doesn’t because of voter hesitancy triggered by
the <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2021/11/ill-timed-shreveport-tax-hikes-look.html">untrustworthy
performance that featured many questionable spending choices</a> of Democrat
former Mayor Adrian Perkins, who on three occasions proposed large bond issues
that included requests to fund water and sewerage. Out of around $600 million
proposed, all of which involved property tax increases, only a $70.65 million estimated
amount that ended up tacking on <a href="https://app.lla.la.gov/maximummillagereports/102723.pdf">2.5 mils for
public safety</a> made it onto the ballot and gained voter approval.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Meanwhile, the funding well for water and sewerage
threatens to run dry. Such operations are set up so that users pay, but legally
the city can apportion the cost to all property owners. However, <a href="https://www.ktbs.com/news/shreveport-water-bills-will-increase/article_6344abf6-1c6c-11ea-8d87-3fd68ba49f81.html">users
already have experienced a series of increases</a>. In 2013 in response to the
decree, the city decided that over a two-year span commencing in 2015 sewer rates
would go up 14 percent, then that and water rates would increase 6 percent in
2020, rise 2 percent more for water in 2021, and a year later would be capped
by 4 percent more there and 2 percent more for sewer.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Still, this doesn’t appear to be enough. So,
Arceneaux has proposed a two-prong strategy of another bond issue including of
three items that altogether total $256 million one of $82 million for water and
sewerage, and <a href="https://www.ktalnews.com/news/local-news/shreveport-city-council-postponed-water-rate-increase/">an
increase in rates again, of 10 percent</a>. Last month, the city launched a
road show to gather citizen input and inform them about it.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Except that the City Council, composed of a 5-2
majority of Democrats, dragged its heels on the rate hike. Twice it delayed in February
authorizing that, although last week it did cue up the three bond ballot items
just in time to make the Apr. 27 election.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Democrat Councilors <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/directory.aspx?EID=354">Tabatha Taylor</a>
and <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/directory.aspx?EID=356">James Green</a>
voted against that, and also declared they would provide minimal rhetorical
assistance to mobilize electoral support for the measures. They had backed
reliably the measures Perkins had put forward, including for water and sewerage,
as well as generally Perkins and his initiatives. Green expanded upon his vote
and intended actions, noting that his apathy was not different from that of
Republican councilors on past items, inferring particularly <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/directory.aspx?EID=10">Grayson Boucher</a> who
was on the Council then and now who gave vocal support to the measure that
passed then but not for the others ultimately rejected.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This he attributed to racism – Perkins is black,
Arceneaux is white – falling back on the increasingly patterned behavior of he
and Taylor and Democrat Councilor <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/directory.aspx?EID=355">Alan Jackson</a>,
all of whom are black, to <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/08/rebuffed-threat-may-shuffle-shreveport.html">cite
systemic racism as the cause whenever a non-black disagrees with their policy preferences</a>.
This card they had played when Green illegally gave raises to Council employees
and Boucher and Republican <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/directory.aspx?EID=9">Jim Taliaferro</a>,
along with Democrats <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/directory.aspx?EID=357">Ursula Bowman</a>
and <a href="https://www.shreveportla.gov/directory.aspx?EID=8">Gary Brooks</a>,
united to call for an investigation that nailed Green. Far more likely, tepid
Republican support over the previous bond votes came from suspicion over Perkins’
general laxity about finances – such as <a href="https://www.settletalk.com/blog/2024/2/23/councilman-green-off-base-at-committee-meeting">not
vetting all available sources for funding</a> before asking for tax increases –
and his shiftiness that led to legal actions and Legislative Auditor rebukes.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Regardless, a political motive clearly presents
itself. Councilors with an eye towards denying Arceneaux a second term can feel
safe in supporting or ignoring a bond issue, because if voters approve the
water and sewerage measure at least the people will have voted it onto
themselves. But they can posture over the rate hikes, because to approve these
puts the spotlight on them and to reject these makes Arceneaux look like the
bad guy for bringing up the idea.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Plus, they get to take shots at Arceneaux for
things Perkins left undone. In the <a href="https://www.ktalnews.com/news/local-news/attorney-who-won-lawsuits-against-the-city-of-shreveport-claims-overbilling-of-water-bills-continues/">prior
administrative council meeting</a> to the regular meeting that turned down the
rate hikes but approved the bond vote, the issue of overbilling for services
reemerged. A few years ago, the city <a href="https://www.ktbs.com/news/3investigates/water-customers-a-step-closer-to-refunds-following-settlement-of-pending-lawsuits/article_ef10346a-79d8-11ea-80a4-13654b9d8c50.html">settled
multi-million dollar class action claims about this</a>, and the lawyer who had
led this battle alleged this still was going on. Green and Taylor particularly
cast aspersions that Arceneaux’s administration was negligent on this – except
that the lawyer said he had notified the Perkins Administration in 2021 about
this and nothing was done.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Ironically, the hold that Council Democrats have
placed on rate increases they say comes from concerns that the city’s program
helping lower-income families pay water bills can’t do enough received a major shot
in the arm as a result of the overbilling settlement, where class members who
couldn’t be located had their shares requisitioned for this purpose. How long recalcitrant
councilors stick to that story remains to be seen.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For in their ideal world, they will drag this out
as long as possible – which perhaps is why Green and Taylor talked of the bond
vote to come in the fall rather than spring – in order to have maximal time to paint
Arceneaux as a tax- and rate-raiser with Democrat councilors as a check against
his trying in this manner to impoverish the people, regardless of whether the
city’s water and sewerage system receives its badly-needed and legally-required
fixes. Like it or not, decades of neglect have led the city to this point, and
resolution might be swifter and more effective if the Council majority, and
especially those members of it prone to playing the race card, would dial down the
politicking focused too much on political futures.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-17900505351644355262024-02-29T18:05:00.001-06:002024-02-29T18:07:21.229-06:00Left misleads on LA rebalancing criminal laws<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">As most of Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a>’s criminal
justice reforms as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-bill-law-crime-legislature-1463b4d220012d6aa33fe67a9b04dac8">legislation
heads to his desk for his signature into law</a>, Louisiana’s political left is
working overtime to cast aspersions on measures reversing the ethos behind
changes predecessor Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards had enticed, despite data showing
very much such assertions are baseless.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In essence, Landry’s increases severity of
sentences for some crimes, for 17-year-olds convicted of some crimes, and
lengthens incarceration time for many convicts. Edwards’ had done the opposite,
on the theory that the existing measures were cost ineffective, or that any
reduction in crime was more than offset by costs involved. Indeed, more vocal
advocates of the so-called “smart on crime” approach actually argued that you
could have it both ways, reduced crime and costs.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://lailluminator.com/2024/02/20/landry-criminal-justice/">At the
very least</a>, the left wishes to delegitimize Landry’s restoration with
claims along the lines that being “tougher” on crime won’t make much of a
difference, if not make matters worse, and certainly would cost more. A typical
leftist view on the philosophy behind his package is “there is no firm
empirical evidence that confirms” that “more stringent punitive measures [are] a
criminal deterrent.”<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That view betrays ignorance, whether willful out
of a desire to cherry-pick evidence to support views often limited to those of researchers
with a compatible agenda (<a href="https://www.city-journal.org/article/why-incarceration-matters">and much
of it flawed</a>), of the actual data. In reality, the most comprehensive and
recent analysis demonstrate that more and longer incarceration as a whole
reduces crimes.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Penalties create two disincentives to criminal
behavior. One is deterrence, by increasing the expected cost to a miscreant for
such behavior. The more severe the penalty, in terms of sentencing conditioned
by time actually served and in prison, all other things equal the less of that
behavior occurs.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">However, “all other things equal” rarely are and
can be extremely difficult to disaggregate in analyses of deterrence.
Principally, variance occurs around the probability of apprehension and prosecution
to the fullest sense of the law. Capital punishment provides an excellent
example of the latter and how that can affect analyses of its deterrent impact.
In the aggregate, research provides somewhat of a mixed picture for whether
executions prevent murders (by legal definition, premeditated and heinous).</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But that’s because of the guerilla warfare that
has developed by anti-capital punishment interests to prevent executions deliberately
designed to water down the deterrent effect, essentially vacating the sentences
and breaking society’s pact with victims to carry out that punishment. Parsing out
that – in other words, when authorities are able and willing to carry out death
sentences in a reasonably timely fashion – the evidence is quite clear: <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/02/over-execution-hollywood-may-help-la.html">executions
save innocent lives</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet perhaps more trenchantly, punishment is but
the output of a criminal justice system. The input is prosecutorial conduct.
For example, “progressive” prosecutors willing to file less severe charges
and/or ask for less severe sentencing, if they even bother to prosecute,
entirely subvert the deterrence impact of sentences written into law.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In short, the presence of such confounding
variables makes it difficult to assess empirically any relationship between
sentencing and crime commission. Still, behavioral theory dictates that there
must be casual covariance where stiffer punishment reduces criminal activity.
After all, if jaywalking is made a capital crime, even as people know it is rarely
reported and even more rarely enforced, the penalty is so severe that in terms
of expected outcomes it will deter jaywalking, for the penalty is so harsh that
for many even the tiniest odds of being caught don’t reduce the expected negative
value of the punishment enough to go below the expected positive value of
saving a few steps by not using a crosswalk.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Fortunately, the other disincentive is much easier
to measure: if incarcerated (unless corrupt authorities are involved), a person
cannot commit criminal activity among the public. Simply, as data show and <a href="https://manhattan.institute/article/issues-2020-mass-decarceration-will-increase-violent-crime">especially
for serious crimes</a>, most of those incarcerated will commit more crime when
not imprisoned. By keeping them imprisoned for longer periods, through a
combination of sentencing and lower levels of reducing the time served or of
having access to parole and probation, predators are off the streets. In fact,
longer times served in prison for a crime are associated with reduced levels of
recidivism, so a double bonus is enjoyed by society.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">And, <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/01/report-falls-short-defending-justice.html">as
crime data show</a>, after Edwards’ changes went into effect, in Louisiana
crime increased relative to the rest of the country and region. Costs may
increase with Landry’s agenda in place, such as by keeping more convicts imprisoned,
but the payoff in reduced crime will be worth it.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Landry’s restoration from these solidly follows
the evidence (as it does also with the <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/01/done-right-la-lowering-age-will-reduce.html">issue
of charging 17-year-olds as adults</a> and making it administratively easier to
carry out capital sentences). Suggestions to the contrary don’t inform, but instead
mislead.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-16781816705394911212024-02-28T21:45:00.002-06:002024-02-28T22:24:20.695-06:00Another Supreme Court map failure benefits Cox<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The soap opera concerning possible reapportionment of
Louisiana’s Supreme Court districts <a href="https://lailluminator.com/2024/02/27/supreme-court-districts/">looks to
spill over to a third try</a> in the 2024 Regular Session of the Louisiana
Legislature, caught up in electoral politics directly affecting at least one
declared candidate for the open Second District seat later this year.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">At the First Extraordinary Session, the Senate refused
to move a bill that would have accomplished this. It did so again this week
during the Second Extraordinary Session, although under somewhat different
circumstances.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Crucial to understanding the machinations
involved, consider the context. Nothing legally requires the state to do this.
As judicial elections cover offices not considered policy-making and therefore not
necessary to represent constituencies, neither equal apportionment nor guarantees
that district arrangements not impair the ability of minority groups to elect
candidates of their own choosing apply to judicial reapportionment questions.
Thus, Louisiana’s current environment of seven districts with enormous population
districts and just one majority-minority district in a state where about a third
of the population claims black ancestry is perfectly constitutional.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That hasn’t stopped special interests from suing
the state to double the number of M/M districts. In litigation now for nearly
five years, the case has yet to come to trial and for the plaintiffs to succeed
would take a massive change in jurisprudence, although Louisiana is an extreme
outlier in this instance: it’s the only state whose court of last resort has
its members elected from single-member districts in a partisan fashion without
retention elections.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As of late, Republican Atty Gen. <a href="http://www.ag.state.la.us/About">Liz Murrill</a> has estimated beating
back this litigation would cost the state $10 million, and her predecessor
Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff
Landry</a> has backed efforts to end the malapportionment and create two M/M
districts. They have lobbied the Legislature to do this, unsuccessfully.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/01/why-it-failed-part-ii-judicial-remap.html">In
January</a>, the effort fell apart because two of the sitting Court justices,
no party <a href="https://www.lasc.org/About/Biography?p=John_L._Weimer">John
Weimer</a> from the Sixth District and Republican <a href="https://www.lasc.org/About/Biography?p=Scott_J._Crichton">Scott Chrichton</a>
of the Second objected to having their districts suffering major alterations,
as well as several Republican senators echoing their complaints. Weimer would have
found himself out of his current southern coastal district and therefore unable
to serve, while Chrichton who is retiring at the end of this year complained on
principle how the arrangement sliced and diced the current northwestern Second.
As well, some Republicans weren’t too keen, from a partisan perspective, of
essentially giving away a seat on the Court.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This month, the next iteration of the <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1344668">map</a> didn’t draw
justices’ opposition because it would have allowed Weimer to retain his seat by
drawing the Second differently (if meandering and clearly designed with race in
mind) so that it sprawled over the northeastern part of the state and flowed across
into the Capitol region and Florida parishes that also shifts Republican
Justice Jay McCallum’s Fourth District westward all the way to the Texas border,
although that does split Caddo Parish.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This plan reflects a settlement deal Murrill
worked out, with her using the argued certitude that the plaintiffs, <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/louisiana-supreme-court-redistricting-challenge-louisiana-naacp/">who
are supported by deep-pocketed leftists</a>, would keep the case going to cost
the state plenty despite the run of play judicially against them. But that wasn’t
enough enticement for GOP senators present on the <a href="https://senate.la.gov/Sen_Committees/SenateGovAffairs">Senate and
Governmental Affairs Committee</a> to eschew a desire to make adjustments to
the map, which both would not have followed the settlement and may not have
adhered to the session <a href="https://legis.la.gov/LegisDocs/242ES/call.pdf">call</a>
which explicitly mentioned the settlement. Unable to do so, they torpedoed it.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Which may have brought a sigh of relief for the
second time to Republican Second Circuit Court of Appeals Judge <a href="https://www.la2nd.org/court-personnel-overview/judge-jeff-cox/">Jeff Cox</a>,
who recently has signaled his intention to run for Chrichton’s seat. The first
map would have plunked him in the new M/M district with little chance of
winning, while this next one would have sent him into the Third where McCallum
could run for reelection in 2026.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While it appears another attempt will come in the
regular session, Court reapportionment success there appears murky, having to
compete with far many more bills. Cox should take heart at that, but other GOP
responses that could lead to a successful bill could complicate, if not
scuttle, his presumed candidacy for the state’s highest court. Floated in years
past and in the first session to deal with this was amending the Constitution
to provide for nine districts – essentially adding both an M/M district and a
non-M/M district – to reach two M/M districts. That strategy could throw Cox into
an incumbent’s district, either McCallum’s or Republican <a href="https://www.lasc.org/About/Biography?p=James_T._Genovese">James Genovese</a>’s
Third District which will become an open seat for 2026, or even into the new M/M
district.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Or, amendments around edges of the just-parked plan
could put him into the Third, whose border in that map nudges his Bossier
Parish base. While that avoids matching up against an incumbent, his appellate
seat also is up at the same time, which throws him into an all-or-nothing
choice in 2026 and cheats him out of a potential term starting in 2037 because
running this fall would leave him just under the age limit of under 70 at the
start of a term for 2035 but over it for 2037.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Any change from the existing map potentially could
juice judicial careers, but perhaps no one more than Cox would benefit from nothing
happening.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-28304457719786026952024-02-27T22:50:00.001-06:002024-02-27T22:50:20.690-06:00LA should prohibit preying on pregnant girls<p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;">If Louisiana wants to boost parental rights, protect
some lives, and make Democrat California Gov. <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/about/">Gavin Newsom</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/25/gavin-newsom-abortion-ads-00143173">waste
some of his money</a>, it should join other states in making criminal activity
that attempts to spirit unemancipated minor girls out of state to receive
abortions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This week, Newsom announced that he would dip into
his own leftover campaign funds – perhaps a bit prematurely, as he collected
these dollars in defense against a recall petition he successfully beat back, but
<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4489550-gavin-newsom-recall-california/">another
appears on the way</a> – banked by an affiliated organization to fund media
buys in several states that have, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/idaho-abortion-minors-criminalization-b8fb4b6feb9b520d63f75432a1219588">in
the case of Idaho since last year</a>, or are considering laws these laws. He already
ran some in Tennessee and says he’ll spend millions.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Recognize this, of course, as a last-minute ploy
to sell himself as a replacement for Democrat Pres. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/president-biden/">Joe Biden</a>,
whose low polling numbers and consistent running behind and significantly
Republican former Pres. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/donald-j-trump/">Donald
Trump</a> in the polls have increased the chances that party powerbrokers will
try to stage an intervention to get him to desist in attempted reelection. An
ad or two appearing in conservative states isn’t going to make any difference in
whether laws of this nature pass or fail, but it does raise his profile.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Still, Louisiana should strive to make his list
and tempt him to pump a few bucks into the coffers of state media. The Idaho
law makes it illegal to either obtain abortion pills for minors or to help them
leave the state for an abortion without their parents’ knowledge and consent,
by which the enablers could face criminal and civil penalties.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The law doesn’t prohibit minors to cross state
lines to kill their unborn child, nor to order abortion-inducing drugs and have
these delivered, only that if they are aided by people other than their parents
in these tasks that they receive the parents’ permission. Rightfully, parents
have a vested interest in protecting their children from making mistakes, as their
generally brains aren’t fully developed to ensure judging wisely in these
matters, or potentially to resist the blandishment of ideologues who assign
themselves the mission of maximizing abortion for political or other reasons and prey on vulnerable girls to satisfy that compulsion.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As well, parents should have the right to speak
for their unborn grandchild when others, including an immature daughter,
disregard that obligation. For the difficult cases of rape by father and/or
incest, either parent still should have to give permission for out-of-state abortion-procurement
by others, but also one or both should be prosecutable under the law regardless.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hopefully, such a bill will pop up and be passed
by the Legislature during the regular session. Then we’ll see just how far
Newsom’s dollars stretch. </span></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-39532271393178696052024-02-26T16:55:00.001-06:002024-02-26T16:56:40.199-06:00Legislature needs to add sore loser provision<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">A major tweak that the Louisiana Legislature should
make to its recent changes to candidate qualifying for certain offices would
prevent “sore losers” from trying to game the system.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://apnews.com/article/primary-louisiana-election-congress-jungle-4d6c11151549c26811db28a0114e2c96">Earlier
this year</a>, the state instituted semi-closed primary elections to determine
partisan general election candidates, essentially nominating them for office.
Starting in 2026, this will apply to all federal legislative candidates as well
as members of plenary statewide executive and judicial bodies. The law will make
parties award nominations thus eligibility to run in the general election using
their labels, where they can be joined by candidates not from a <a href="https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/PublishedDocuments/PoliticalPartiesInLouisiana.pdf">recognized
party</a> – currently the two major plus Greens, Libertarian, and Independent –
on the general election ballot. In these primaries, only party members and any
no party registrants who choose only on party’s ballot may participate.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But the law doesn’t prevent someone from running
in a party primary who loses then to run in the general election under any
label other than recognized parties’ or as no party. This subverts the idea of preventing
other parties’ registrants to determine a party’s sole general election participant,
even if the loser runs under another or without a label.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In American election law, <a href="https://www.electionlawprogram.org/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/8165/chaptertwo-proofed2.pdf">three
approaches</a> try to prohibit this end-around for defeated partisan
candidates. One requires candidate qualification some time prior to party primaries
as a non-recognized partisan in order to participate in the general election.
However, these kinds of laws run into constitutional problems because the
judiciary sees excessive time gaps between qualifying and electing as beyond
administrative needs (such as ballot preparation) thus becoming impediments to
electoral participation, and have ruled such laws unconstitutional. If
implemented in Louisiana, the months-long gap for regular elections between
primary and general almost certainly would cause such a restriction to be
declared unconstitutional.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A variation to this stands on much firmer ground.
Disaffiliation statutes create a prior time limit that a person must have
registered with a party to vote in order to participate in that party’s primary,
as a voter or to qualify as a candidate (the state can link the two by requiring
qualification under the label as registered prior to the disaffiliation
length). If a prospective candidate does not choose a party label by then, he
cannot run in the primary and his only option is to run in the general election
not using the label of a party that had a primary for nomination.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Previous judicial rulings have invalidated a length
of 23 months, calling this disenfranchisement, but have accepted a length as
long as a year. Thus, if Louisiana were to enact something like this, that
would mean a candidate would have to have register under a recognized party
label a year before the primary election and subsequently couldn’t switch to an
unrecognized or no party label for the general election.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Note also that a broad disaffiliation statute
could solve the problem of “party shopping” among voters. As things stand, a partisan
voter who wishes to influence another party’s nomination could switch a month
before the election to no party and vote in that party’s primary, then back. Such
a statute would minimize the amount of “raiding” that could go on subjected onto
the major parties.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Finally, the law very simply could declare that
any candidate who runs in a partisan primary cannot then qualify to run in the
general election in the fall using another or no label. Even something as simple
as an attestation at qualifying that the qualifier must abide the results of
the primary legally could prevent sore losers from running in the general
election.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Maybe best would be a disaffiliation statute
covering both voters and candidates and an explicit sore loser law. Expect introduction
of legislation to these effects to come as soon as this year’s regular
legislative session.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-34121489062064613822024-02-25T20:40:00.001-06:002024-02-25T20:40:12.673-06:00BC cuts tiny part of venture capitalist losses<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The chickens continue to come home to roost over
Bossier City’s profligacy of the past three decades as its agenda of government
as economic development machine through interventions into the local economy with
taxpayer dollars cascade from failure to failure.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Recently, <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/02/tax-fatigued-voters-may-doom-bossier.html">headlines</a>
about how the city has squandered wealth and opportunity have focused on the
duplicative Walter O. Bigby Carriageway and provision of expensive recreation
for a tiny minority of city residents or for non-residents while discouraging other
residents from using these facilities. But while these come from relatively
recent poor decisions, there are some huge expenses with little payoff in the
past often forgotten.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">At <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/10/bc-quality-of-life-pay-for-parking-at.html">over
$65 million in cost</a>, the <a href="https://brookshiregroceryarena.com/">Brookshire
Grocery Arena</a> has turned into a perennial money-loser. Since its opening in
2000, it had only three years where it turned a profit, the last in 2006. Its
total losses through 2022 have been a startling $9.655 million. And while some
of its desperate boosters (echoing arguments made about the millions of dollars
going into city park facilities restricted to out-of-towner use) claim it can
make that up through taxes paid by visitors to arena events, it’s laughable
that non-residents to arena events during their trips could have bought in the
city goods worth $386.2 million, the break-even point.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Almost two decades ago, the city built at its own
expense a parking garage for the oft-troubled <a href="http://www.louisianaboardwalk.com/">Louisiana Boardwalk Outlets</a> that
struggles to maintain occupancy and especially with tenants that can contribute
significantly to the tax base (as reflected in the name change that added “Outlets”
as upscale tenants have fled resulting in a different strategy to lease the
one-third empty property). Politicians back then crowed about how a commercial boom
that would attract out-of-town visitors would cause city coffers to overflow,
as justification for their gift. Originally built for $160 million, its <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/08/boardwalk-sale-reminds-of-bc-spending.html">latest
sale in 2022 netted just $30.5 million</a>. That means, on an
inflation-adjusted basis, the garage – which at $21.5 million should have been
built by the developer, not essentially as a gift by the city – cost $3 million
more than the worth of the entire property today. (The nearby property built
first but technically not connected to the Boardwalk, Bass Pro Shops, has it
own parking lot.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A few years later, in conjunction with the state
and parish the city went in with the <a href="https://www.cyberinnovationcenter.org/">Cyber Innovation Center</a> that
gradually would expand from it into the National Cyber Research Park. The <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2016/07/better-late-than-never-for-bossier-city.html">city
threw in $35 million then a few million more since</a>, and as part of that talked
about as many as <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2012/01/bossier-city-tax-hike-punishes-citizens.html">10,000
high-paying jobs</a> coming to the area as a result of the CIC presence.
Instead, only a fraction of that number work near it, and the economic impact
of the entire arrangement has come overwhelmingly from the nearby NCRP tenants,
who except for infrastructure used their own resources to install their presences.
As with the arena, the CIC never has come close to paying itself off, and its presence
only peripherally has had anything to do with attracting NCRP business.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">All three of these were examples of government venture
capitalism, in building something that non-government entities should have pursued
but didn’t because the costs exceeded the benefits. Still, elected officials
let themselves get sucked into these bad deals, and Bossier Citians have paid
for it ever since: in the huge initial outlays, the interest costs, and
supplemental costs that far outstrip tax collections attributable to these. But
rather than admit defeat, the city continues to allow citizens to lose money on
these.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet it has decided to throw in the towel on a much
smaller similar item. Late last year, the city announced it wanted to dispose
of its two alternative fuel stations, and at the Bossier City Council’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwmZiMUyAK0">Feb. 13 meeting</a> at the
request of Republican Councilor <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/474/District-1---Brian-Hammons">Brian Hammons</a>
an update was delivered about this. City Attorney Richard Ray said an appraisal
on these has been completed, but also expressed doubts about whether the
properties even could be sold at appraised values.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Those values likely will come in under <a href="https://app2.lla.state.la.us/publicreports.nsf/0/662de62a914c7f5a86257759004cdf65/$file/0001799a.pdf?openelement&.7773098">$4.4
million</a>. That represents the amount the city anticipated drawing from its Riverboat
Capital Projects Fund in 2010 and 2011 to build the pair of compressed natural
gas stations. Web records available don’t lay out a precise cost or how much
was added over the years.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That story is a rinse and repeat of the government-as-economic-engine
ideology that has been a mainstay of the two graybeards who have been on the
Council from the time of the building of the arena, Democrat <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/262/District-3---Don-Williams">Bubba Williams</a>
and no party <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/261/District-2---Jeffery-Darby">Jeff Darby</a>,
plus Republican <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/258/At-Large---David-Montgomery">David
Montgomery</a> who joined just after the arena opened. With the Haynesville
Shale booming, the <a href="https://www.ksla.com/story/26146149/bcpd-plans-to-add-more-clean-fuel-cars-to-fleet/">city
argued</a> this would lead to lower fuel expenditures as well as be more
environmentally-friendly, even though conversions and new vehicles cost roughly
$7,000 more per vehicle than running with conventional gasoline.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Naturally, the bet didn’t pan out and after paying
extra for dozens of such vehicles since the first station began operating in
2010, they’ve been cycled back out of the city fleet, making the stations obsolete
for the purposes of the city. Nor does it appear that this made a positive contribution
to city finances. Since then, the stations have a bookkeeping profit of
$160,000, with the first nine years in positive territory seven of them. But since
2017 they’ve recorded a deficit every year through 2022 with the three largest
in 2020-22.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That may well understate the case. The city’s
annual <a href="https://www.lla.la.gov/reports/audit-reports/by-parish/bossier?search=city%20of%20bossier%20city&limit=40">Comprehensive
Annual Financial Report</a> doesn’t distinguish whether the sales and purchases
include compressed natural gas delivered into city vehicles. The $843,389 sales
figure of 2022 implies $2,311 average daily sales, or at an average of $2.49 a
gallon (in <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/alternative_fuel_price_report_january_2022.pdf">Louisiana
in Jan., 2022</a>) coming out to 928 gallons sold a day or just over 50 vehicles
a day filling their tanks. That seems like a high number if only non-city vehicles,
and in accounting terms it would be much more difficult to parse out those
numbers, so commingled in all of that likely are city fuel costs. Throw in the
several hundred thousands of extra dollars spent on CNG-capable vehicles and although
normally CNG prices are lower it burns through quicker so fuel price
differentials over the years would matter, but probably it ended up with the
CNG vehicles costing more to operate over their lifespans.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">So, the experiment probably cost extra taxpayer
dollars, but that’s par for the course for Bossier City ever since the casinos
showed up. At least there’s some belated recognition to cut losses in this
case, with selling that should extend to the white elephants the arena and CIC,
although with the parking garage there needs to be monetization if possible. It’s
just another example of how Bossier City has mismanaged itself out of hundreds
of millions of dollars over the past quarter-century, if presenting a smaller lesson,
and the pity of it is the likes of Darby, Montgomery, and Williams who have presided
over this decline still remain in office, unrepentant and who likely would make
the same mistakes all over again if voters will let them.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-25998707386630216592024-02-22T15:35:00.007-06:002024-02-22T15:36:18.830-06:00Landry implements crucially-good ITEP reforms<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Given the bad hand Louisiana’s Constitution dealt
him, Republican Gov. Jeff Landry <a href="https://www.businessreport.com/business/gov-landry-signs-executive-order-killing-itep-job-creation-requirements">did
his best</a> and <a href="https://gov.louisiana.gov/assets/ExecutiveOrders/2024/JML-Executive-Order-23.pdf">largely
successfully to fix problems</a> created in the past few years with the state’s
Industrial Tax Exemption Program.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">ITEP reflects a constitutional power defined by
the mostly gubernatorial-appointed <a href="https://wwwcfprd.doa.louisiana.gov/boardsandcommissions/viewBoard.cfm?board=414">Board
of Commerce and Industry</a> and the Department of Economic Development which
allows it to exempt manufacturing firms from property taxes from value added to
property used for discrete projects that create new or expand operations.
However, the Constitution vests the final power in the hand of the governor
whether to approve whatever emerges, so he can create the conditions for
acceptance through an executive order, in essence saying that unless requests
forwarded to him meet standards he articulates, he won’t approve these.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Historically, such supervision was minimal,
leading to almost any project within the constitutional boundaries meeting
approval, until Landry’s predecessor Democrat John Bel Edwards radically
changed the rules, and for the worse. Understanding the negative impact begins
with acknowledging that ITEP exists because of <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/03/candidates-must-disavow-edwards-itep.html">Louisiana’s
confiscatory property tax rates insofar as these apply to business</a>.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Because of the nation’s highest homestead
exemption (plus a myriad of other smaller breaks), the state’s rates are
artificially high because homeowning families, the majority of voters, don’t pay
that but a reduced rate or nothing on all but municipal taxes if they live in
one. Instead, it is foisted on businesses, especially industrial concerns which
pay one of the highest <i>per capita</i> burdens in the country. The best
solution as to what to do with ITEP would be to <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/04/end-itep-as-part-of-la-property-tax.html">get
rid of it entirely</a>, but that would require an extensive overhaul of the
state’s taxing regime that would take an entire term to accomplish.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">So, ITEP then ideally serves as a palliative for
too-high property taxation of large business investment. Unfortunately, in two
iterations, Edwards changed <a href="https://www.doa.la.gov/media/p3ihiwml/13.doc">this</a> to making it a
mechanism holding out the possibility of redistributing wealth, or even
pursuing social justice aims. Three changes in particular opened the doors to
this noxious combination.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">First, he gave three or four (depending on whether
a municipality was involved) kinds of local governments a veto power over an
application. Second, this veto power was particular to the local government
involved. Third, he insisted that application demonstrate the project’s
completion would create jobs.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Together, these created a catastrophic situation
for economic development, beginning with the complexity introduced. If Board
approval came, then each of the three or four local governments got a crack at
it, which in a small of number cases produced split decisions, creating
bureaucratic complexity both within the tax collector (sheriff) and the
business, where the latter served as a disincentive to invest.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In even fewer cases, they all vetoed the idea, which
provided an even greater disincentive. In fact, advocacy literature disguised
as quality and honest research even admitted tangentially that the new policy discouraged
applications even as it trumpeted that few rejections occurred. But you can’t
turn down something if it never gets submitted, either out of fear it’ll be
wasted effort or simply not even contemplated because of the new rules, and you
can’t reap the economic benefits of these projects never undertaken.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But the worst of all was the job creation
requirement, which betrays both a fundamental misunderstanding of economic development
and its use a cudgel to further political careers and special interest agendas.
Political hacks and courthouse gangs liked the idea because then they could
draw a direct line to their approval and a claim their actions put people to
work.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Worse still, they could use that as a bargaining
tool to further agendas inimical to economic development, if not the well-being
of the community as a whole. A <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2018/07/new-la-itep-rules-allow-for-bad-policy.html">classic
example</a> came from the Orleans Parish School Board, which issued its own set
of criteria for project approval that focused heavily on wealth redistribution and
pandering to special interest agendas, rather than focus on policy that would create
a rising tide to lift all boats.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Job creation is a potentially desired output from
a tax break decision. But economic development is far more than that, and can
be exclusive of that. The outstanding exhibit of why job creation can’t be the
end-all-be-all of tax policy is the state’s <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/02/over-execution-hollywood-may-help-la.html">Motion
Picture Investors tax credit</a>, which costs $13,300 per (mostly part-time)
job created, and doesn’t even return a quarter on the dollar of this to taxpayers.
You don’t have to create any jobs to make a decision where forgoing tax dollars
boosts productivity and tax revenues that ripple through the entire local economy.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Wisely, Landry recognized these flaws and corrected
them. He simplified the local review process to include for every decision just
the chief executive or first among equals from a parish, school district,
sheriff’s office (the sheriff or designee), and, when needed, mayor to vote
collectively on the matter.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Better, he made this a nonbinding advisory opinion,
so local governments no longer can throw up extraneous requirements. Best of
all, he removed the job creation criteria and made the final decision – if
approved by the Board with local input – his on the basis of overall economic development
that recognizes the state’s punitive property tax structure for manufacturing
concerns needs rebalancing to encourage capital investment.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">He kept a provision that wouldn’t make exemptions retroactively
applied and only for meaningful spending that could boost productivity. He also
capped the break at 80 percent – including the option to go to 100 might have been
better – for five years, plus as many more renewed once.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This is a far better use of ITEP, if we must have
it, that will focus on aiding all participants in the state and local economies
rather than select special interests. Landry continues to mean business that
the state, after years of indifference if not hostility to this idea from Edwards,
is open for business.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-8846925104367847322024-02-21T20:02:00.001-06:002024-02-21T20:02:30.262-06:00Changes only can improve LA public defense<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://lailluminator.com/2024/02/21/public-defenders/">Opposition to
changing governance of Louisiana’s indigent defense</a> from an appointed board
to a gubernatorial designee generated more heat than light and shouldn’t derail
an improvement to a system as yet never quite fixed.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1344456">SB 8</a> by
Republican state Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=30">Mike Reese</a>
may end up the most controversial bill of the Legislature’s Second Extraordinary
Session of 2024. Its initial hearing dragged on for hours with support voiced
for it by State Public Defender Remy Starns and a few others, but most of the time
was taken by opponents, many connected to public defense.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The bill would remove the Louisiana Public
Defender Board from policy-making, leaving only an advisory role, transferring
that to the public defender. Rather than he be an appointee of the Board, the governor
with Senate confirmation would make the appointment, for two years. This would
put contracting and chief district defender hiring solely in the hands of the
public defender, among other things, rather than by the Board which currently
has five gubernatorial appointees (from each appellate district), four from the
chief justice of the Louisiana Supreme Court, and one each from the leaders of
each state legislative chamber, serving overlapping four-year terms.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">(Not that the Board has done itself favors with new
Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a>,
who backs the bill. Chock full of appointees of his predecessor and a chief justice
whose views haven’t shown much affinity with Landry’s, in the Board’s <a href="https://lpdb.la.gov/Serving%20The%20Public/Reports/txtfiles/pdf/2023%20LPDB%20Annual%20Report%20-%20Web%20Version.pdf">latest
annual report</a> that has a wish list of policy preferences it would like to
see enacted these don’t exactly mesh with Landry’s.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Opponents raised two common objections. One holds
no water and people versed in the study of government and law should know
better: that somehow gubernatorial appointment violates separation of powers. It’s
an ironic complaint, because if anything the charge would stick better if
applied to the current board having policy-making authority, as the state
judiciary in whose courts defenders will argue appoints four board members. As
well, just as is the governor, the Board is part of the executive branch</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But the governor has no power over the state’s
judiciary and no involvement with it; the elected executive branch official
with that is the attorney general. Plus, the governor’s appointive power is
checked by the state Senate through the confirmation process. And, among the
states that have any statewide authority over public defense, a gubernatorial
appointee is the second-most common method of picking a statewide public defense
policy-maker, in ten states while the commission form at present in Louisiana
is most common in thirteen. Simply, there’s nothing remotely unconstitutional
about this arrangement.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Ringing less hollow of a complaint is that the
shift will increase politicization of the office, despite a <a href="https://ilr.law.uiowa.edu/sites/ilr.law.uiowa.edu/files/2023-02/Oritseweyinmi%20Joe.pdf">study</a>
of differing governing structures which doesn’t see a real performance difference
between gubernatorial appointee governance or board governance in terms of quality
that would be hampered by politicization. How exactly greater politicization would
occur wasn’t covered by defenders of the current system, even as the recent
performance of the Board if not displaying politicization has exhibited a degree
of dysfunction that proponents of the bill like Starns argue would be less likely
to occur under the change.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For example, one recent board member (who died in
office), a private defense attorney holding no contracts with the 26<sup>th</sup>
District, created controversy when he <a href="https://www.ktbs.com/news/3investigates/body-cam-records-attorney-explaining-how-he-crashed-bossier-parish-d-a-s-vehicle/article_1d99a8c4-9bd5-11eb-8688-532ccf20fe37.html">crashed</a>
Republican 26<sup>th</sup> District Attorney Schuyler Marvin’s official vehicle
into a Bossier Parish bayou. Arriving at the scene, Bossier deputies found numerous
floating beer cans and later tracked down the driver, who had no authorization to
operate the taxpayer-owned vehicle but whom Marvin later said had been “borrowed.”
The late driver in 2021 faced only a charge in Marvin’s district of failure to
report an accident, to which helped guilty and paid a $100 fine.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Board also last year removed two chief
defenders. <a href="https://app.lla.la.gov/publicreports.nsf/0/1d8a6e5571c56f0586258aad0060186e/$file/00003a35a.pdf">One</a>,
in the 25<sup>th</sup>, a Legislative Auditor report determined while in office
had issued unauthorized student loan assistance payments (including to
herself), information she shielded from the Board. <a href="https://www.brproud.com/news/louisiana-news/east-baton-rouge-plaquemines-head-public-defenders-dont-get-new-contracts-from-state-board/">Another</a>,
in the 19<sup>th</sup>, it removed apparently at the behest of a state legislator
for personnel problems who was <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/courts/inside-dysfunction-at-baton-rouges-public-defender-office/article_0eb6428e-03db-11ee-b35f-43cd6a1bb187.html">accused
of being hired for political reasons</a> involving both the Board and Starns.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">An argument made by Starns and legislative bill
supporters is the Board, including in its previous incarnation prior to 2007,
has a history like this because of its nature as an avenue for political
patronage and is institutionally less capable of holding local defenders
accountable. They say making one person responsible will reduce these problems.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">They also noted that because of this history the
Legislature is too reluctant to increase indigent defense funding. Louisiana’s
schizophrenic funding mechanism that relies far too heavily on local revenue generation
out of the hands of public defense which then hopes the Board can entice the
Legislature to provide enough money to make up for it that it then hopefully distributes
in an equitable fashion has produced chronic shortages in certain districts.
Bill proponents claim the Legislature will have more confidence with a system like
the one proposed to jack up the money allocated to indigent defense, with a
better structure to oversee district financing and contracting less prone to
parochial and special interest pressures.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Systems like the one proposed work in other states, which historically have
worked better than Louisiana’s has, regardless of a recent spate of action by
the Board trying to address dysfunction and questionable decision-making that seems
belated and in a mode of trying to salvage its position. Best of all, the bill’s
alterations create greater incentive for a governor and Legislature to get it
right with picking a quality appointee than under the current diffuse lines of
accountability. It’s a change that only can improve matters, meriting the bill’s
passage.</span></span></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-44842629001201158772024-02-20T22:31:00.000-06:002024-02-20T22:31:01.706-06:00Data point to Summer EBT as unneeded in LA<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Louisiana’s political left has a full-court press
on to try to score political points over the Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a>
Administration decision not to dole out more cash to lower-income households with
children – all the while ignoring data that supports that decision.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Liberal politicians and special interests have
criticized the choice not to participate in the Summer EBT program, which gives
cash benefits of $40 a school-aged child for three months in the summer. It’s
estimated that it would have shoveled $71 million to state families out of
federal monies.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Of course, that attitude acts as if this is free
money, when in fact Louisiana taxpayers will bear the costs through their
federal taxes, an increase in federal debt that they eventually will have to
pay back with interest, and/or with a reduction in services elsewhere. Further,
<a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/01/la-right-to-decline-doling-out-new-cash.html">plenty
of other programs exist to address food needs</a>, including a couple geared
specifically toward school children in the summer that operate far more efficiently
than the Summer EBT design, as well as more general programs that cover the
same clientele base, principally the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
that in Louisiana pays a family of two $535 a month.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Sec. of Children and Family Services David Matlock,
whose department would oversee any such program, in a <a href="https://louisianaradionetwork.com/2024/02/19/dcfs-sec-matlock/">recent
radio interview</a> pointed out these aspects, as well as noted the
administrative cost of around $3.6 million annually the state would bear on a
recurring basis fell well short of actual costs to get the program up and
running, given the technological and personnel issues involved. But he also
emphasized, referring to a point the left desperately tries to ignore, how
giving out more welfare skews behavior in the direction of dependency and gamesmanship.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For a dirty secret is Louisiana families are among
the <a href="https://www.helpadvisor.com/community-health/cost-of-groceries-report">highest
spending in raw dollars on food</a>. This is despite the fact that the average
cost of groceries for the state’s families falls five percent below the
national average, <a href="https://meric.mo.gov/data/cost-living-data-series">ranking
the third-lowest among the continental U.S.</a> states, yet it ranks eighth
highest in dollars per week spent on food. On a cost-adjusted basis, this means
Louisiana households spend more on food in raw terms than any other state.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The old shibboleth is that Louisianans love their food
– and likely related to having the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html">second highest obesity
rate in the country</a> – certainly seems borne out by this data, but a deeper
dive shows there’s much more to it than that. As it’s not higher pricing, the
main culprit would appear to be related to higher volume of food consumed per
household.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">To determine whether and how that plays out, begin
with the data showing a direct inverse relationship between education and
spending; the lower the level of educational attainment, the higher the amount
spent, even though those at lower levels typically have significantly fewer
dollars available to spend because of lower incomes. As well, SNAP clients spend
16 percent higher on food than non-clients.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">One explanation for both may be <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352488845_Poverty_and_the_family_in_Europe">lower
income families tend to have more children</a>. Of the 13.7 percent of families
receiving SNAP nationally, less than 10 percent of two-person households
utilize SNAP, while over a third of those with seven or more do, with an increase
in proportions noted as family size increases. More mouths to feed would take
more resources.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">And, Louisiana ranks <a href="https://data.census.gov/table?tid=ACSST5Y2022.S1101&g=0100000US$0400000">tenth</a>
among states in average family size, but every state ahead of it had higher prices
and some even higher median household incomes and yet these don’t spend nearly
as much on food as do Louisianans.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">At the same time, lower income families also tend
to be single-parent, typically a female. We know where babies come from, and
almost always it’s a conscious decision voluntarily undertaken to engage in
behavior to cause eventual births – a decision, as a number of social scientists
have noted across many disciplines with the data in tow to support them, that
is influenced somewhat by state subsidization most prominently in the form of welfare
benefits.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Many have <a href="https://www.dol.gov/general/aboutdol/history/webid-moynihan">observed
since the dawn of extensive federal government transfer programs</a> that <a href="https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/the-unheavenly-city-at-fifty/">welfare
produced perverse incentives for individuals</a> that steered their behavior
away from self-sufficiency that would lead to a trap of ever-increasing
transfer payment consumption inverse to productive economic behavior. Or to put
it in terms of the Summer EBT debate, if families already spend amounts on food
well above the average for those similarly situated that demonstrates any or
all of sufficiency, preference for more expensive food, and/or lack of care in
source of that food (for example, paying more for convenience or engaging in
illegal use of benefits), sending that amount even higher for most is a
blunderbuss of a policy preference for an assumed problem of food insecurity
that in the main may be more a product of over-consumptive and/or wasteful
behavior. As well, the high obesity rates, where obesity is negatively related
to income, serve as another indicator besides high relative food spending that
food insecurity isn’t a pressing issue for many in the state.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">All of this suggests additional cash food benefits
– with even fewer strings than SNAP – in Louisiana is a low payoff strategy to
address alleged hunger issues with children that instead serve for too many as
more of an incentive to overconsumption rather than as a tool towards
self-sufficiency. In light of the data, Matlock is absolutely correct and his
critics are left without an adequate argument.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-55864199552240714932024-02-19T16:15:00.001-06:002024-02-19T16:15:34.260-06:00Over execution, Hollywood may help LA save cash<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">As with most candidates for governor last year, the
winner Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff
Landry</a> disappointed on the issue of Louisiana’s Motion Picture Investors
tax credit, but maybe he’s hit on a less-direct way to skin a cat over the
issue of expanding capital punishment options.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The film tax credit is notorious for its waste of
taxpayer dollars, costing the state typically hundreds of millions of dollars
annually with only a fraction returning to the treasury in the form of income
taxes on those employed in production, sales taxes for good related to filming,
and the like. It functions as a form of corporate welfare, which largely goes
into the pockets of out-of-state interests, that no other industry in the state
enjoys to that degree. The <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/10214951/4887934858492728109">latest,
most optimistic</a> statistics available show it returns 23 cents on the
dollar while costing $13,300 for each job, mostly part-time, “created.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="text-align: justify;">Gubernatorial
candidates, if anything, with the exception of GOP ex-state Rep. Richard
Nelson, campaigned in favor of the giveaway. That included Landry, even though
his ally now Speaker of the House Republican </span><a href="https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Reps/members.aspx?ID=41" style="text-align: justify;">Phillip DeVillier</a><span style="text-align: justify;">
had </span><a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/05/despite-big-improvement-reject-film-tax.html" style="text-align: justify;">tried
to amend the legislation last year to extend the program to gradually wean the
state off it</a><span style="text-align: justify;">.<span></span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But perhaps Landry and his legislative allies have
found another way to stop the hemorrhaging even if the law stays intact. The
Legislature has launched a special session on justice matters, and included in
that call and reflected by <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342728">HB 6</a> by GOP
state Rep. <a href="https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Reps/members.aspx?ID=86">Nick
Muscarello</a> is a measure to increase the number of death penalty options the
state may apply and to safeguard information relevant to executions that
special interests have used to try to pressure states from being unable to
carry out capital punishment.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This has come to the attention of the trendy, if
typically clueless, Hollywood crowd. Over 100 of them, and including a few in
the industry based in Louisiana, <a href="https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/hollywood-south-filmmakers-come-out-against-new-execution-methods-for-louisiana/article_76084150-b1de-5325-a71b-34402ece3242.html">signed
a letter</a> admonishing the idea, sent to DeVillier. In it, they imply that their
quarrel is with the two additional methods – electrocution and nitrogen gas –
and if the law passes they will abandon Louisiana as a destination for their work
product.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Of course, their indirect acquiescence to the only
method now legal, lethal injection, is entirely cynical. A guerilla war campaign
by special interests to pressure companies that manufacture the chemicals that
can be used to concoct a lethal injection has brought executions to a halt in
many states like Louisiana and made it difficult elsewhere, with the last
domestic firm opting out in 2016. If that situation were to change and a ready
supply became available, the real reason for the protest would become apparent:
ideological opposition to it.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">And while the research is somewhat dated on its
impact, even as more recent data are less reliable because of the success of
the guerilla warfare that has produced a decline to low levels of the number of
executions nationwide, the results tend very much in the direction that <a href="https://www.heritage.org/civil-society/commentary/how-the-death-penalty-saves-lives">capital
punishment, when consistently applied, deters homicides</a>. Less certain is
whether it saves money compared to life imprisonment, as the guerilla warfare also
intends to drive up execution costs to tip the economic balance in favor of
abolishing the death penalty.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">So how should Louisianans respond to the blowhards’
letter? By calling for the Legislature to pass the bill and then put all the
signers on their list for Christmas cards, if not finding every available piece
of contact information for them and bombarding them with pleas to follow
through. Passing the bill not only will save lives but thus also will save the
state money – not necessarily from the costs of keeping condemned prisoners on
death row indefinitely, but from not handing over fistfuls of state dollars to
a bunch of people almost all from outside its borders who sell fantasy (and the
occasional documentary, if slanted) for a living, and who film here only because
they can line their pockets at taxpayer expense.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The guerilla warfare against capital punishment is
a way to stop it without outlawing it. With the aid of dim bulbs in the film
industry, maybe Louisianans can employ the same trick: stop bleeding tax
dollars while the law permitting that stays on the books. To the signing idiots,
thank you, and please carry on.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-51257570597843953962024-02-18T18:50:00.001-06:002024-02-18T18:50:38.206-06:00Tax fatigued voters may doom Bossier renewal<p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In April, most Bossier City residents will be solicited
to slap upon themselves again a large amount of property taxes, and to a
smaller degree parish residents outside of municipalities face the same. As a
result, chances are good that at least some portion of current taxes will be
rejected.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">All of Bossier City, Bossier Parish, and the
majority part of both encapsulated in the Cypress Black Bayou Recreation and
Water Conservation District have cued up property tax renewals on the Apr. 27
ballot. The State Bond Commission last week <a href="https://senate.la.gov/s_video/VideoArchivePlayer?v=senate/2024/02/021524SBC">approved</a>
for the date a pair of city levies for 8.32 and 2.71 mils for public safety,
the parish levy 7.43 mils for the library system, and the district levy of 1.54
for general operations and capital outlay.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The four are for ten years, although the district’s starts
in 2025 while the other two wouldn’t renew until 2026. If all were approved,
city property owners with a $225,000 primary residential property within the
district boundaries would reestablish onto themselves $350.88 annually in property
taxes; those not in the boundaries would add back $327.78; and outside a
municipality in the district would sign on again to $134.55, and those only in
the parish would re-up to $111.45. (Parish Administrator Butch Ford’s <a href="https://bossier.smartcama.com/Assessments/Search?AssessmentNumber=114349&PerformSearch=True&ExactSearch=True">shack</a>,
which <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/07/bossier-jury-must-answer-for-unlawful.html">permits
him to evade legal prohibition against his employment</a>, is valued so low,
below the homestead exemption, that his taxes paid won’t change regardless of
the outcome of the parish and district votes.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Citizens within and among these various
jurisdictions have reason for skepticism in renewing these taxes. In the case
of Bossier City, it would be general profligate spending, in part on luxuries
that serve few citizens such as <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/12/few-gain-most-lose-from-more-bc-tennis.html">maintaining
tennis courts for a private sector operator that hardly any city residents use</a>;
<a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2022/10/bureaucrats-subverting-bc-citizens-park.html">high-dollar
recreation facilities residents are discouraged, if not prohibited, from using</a>;
and huge capital outlay projects that have low overall value such as the duplicative
Walter O. Bigby Carriageway.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This has put the city into a debt bind. At the end
of <a href="https://app2.lla.state.la.us/publicreports.nsf/0/bffe196cf3917e6f862589ff0061e87e/$file/00002461.pdf?openelement&.7773098">2022</a>,
it had $434.5 million in debt, with this declining slowly over the past couple
of years. With an estimated mid-2022 population of <a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST5Y2022.S0101?q=bossier%20city">62,971</a>,
that left it at $6,900 <i>per capita</i>, or in terms of government activities
(excluding enterprise activities, in this instance the city-run water and
sewerage system) $3,400 <i>per capita</i>. These are the highest levels of any
major city in Louisiana, which in part explains why the two major investment
services rank the quality of its debt as only in the third-highest and
fourth-highest categories (high quality with low credit risk, but with some
susceptibility to long-term risks).</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Having frittered away dollars on nonessential, if
not questionable, items has had consequences such as government activities long-term
debt interest of about $9 million paid out (its business activities also cost
another $5 million in interest) in 2022 that just a portion of which if freed could
back things like <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/11/in-bc-monuments-come-before-employees.html">firefighter
pensions</a> or pay raises for city employees, particularly in public safety. Ironically,
adequate funding of public safety is the issue that probably won’t lead to a citizens’
revolt at the ballot box on city millages because those address public safety,
as city fathers decades ago clearly must have envisioned since they cleverly tied
these levies explicitly to the most important function local government can
have.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That fact will discourage citizens from voting
down the items in order to teach a lesson to the likes of City Council
graybeards Republicans <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/258/At-Large---David-Montgomery">David
Montgomery</a> and <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/268/District-4---Jeff-Free">Jeff Free</a>, Democrat
<a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/262/District-3---Don-Williams">Bubba
Williams</a>, and no party <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/261/District-2---Jeffery-Darby">Jeff Darby</a>
who oversaw the fiscal mismanagement over recent decades. After all, even as graybeard
actions have precluded better pay for public safety, removing the millages would
mean no pay and no job for many first responders.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A bit more vulnerable is the parish levy, not only
because library operations aren’t nearly as central to parish citizens’ lives –
likely the majority of them, aside from early voting, never have set foot in or
connected to the Internet sites of Bossier Parish Libraries – but also as the
parish’s Police Jury has engaged in a series of <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/09/bossier-juror-illegal-actions-issue-in.html">legally
questionable, if not outright illegal, acts in regards to the library</a>. In
particular:</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: x-small;">It has had jurors serve on the <a href="https://www.bossierlibrary.org/library-board-of-control">Library Board of
Control</a> since 2016. State law is somewhat ambiguous about the legality of
this practice – in fact, Bossier is the only parish for which information is readily
available on the web that does this – but an attorney general’s opinion on that
question soon will be released.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: x-small;">At one point, it appointed Ford as head of libraries
on an interim basis for several months, which unambiguously broke the law as he
did not under state statute have the proper qualifications.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/09/bossier-juror-illegal-actions-issue-in.html">Most
recently</a>, it appointed all 12 jurors to the Board. Even as it appears they
will meet in a kind of rotation fashion, that violates state statute that
limits membership to as many as seven parish residents.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: x-small;">And, even as some jurors allege they needed to take
over the Board because of problems they refuse to specify were endemic to the
library system that only they could solve – which rings entirely hollow since
jurors were board members for many years before making the board an all-juror
affair – if one of those problems was unsupervised availability of graphic
materials to children, the <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/03/bossier-kids-find-sex-buffet-at-parish.html">problem
continues</a>.</span></li></ul><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">These kinds of shenanigans might induce the
electorate to pull the plug on library funding, which would still leave around
100 mils of taxation for the parish that could be reallocated for library
purposes if so desired. Still, the magnitude of the money that would disappear,
as well as arguments that the library does serve school children and others,
likely will save the day for this renewal.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">None of that applies to the district levy. Few
parish residents use the park (and have to pay to get in) yet most get taxed
for it, and many of the few hundred property owners to which it is highly
relevant since it foists land use controls upon them who pay hundreds or even
thousands of dollars a year to it depending upon the activities in which they
engage are nonplussed at it. The latter especially have had to endure years of
evasive and opaque management accentuated by a series of questionable decisions
by its <a href="https://cypressblackbayou.com/governance/board-of-commissions">Board
of Commissioners</a> and its recently-departed member and (<a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/07/opaquely-bossier-govts-defuse-issue.html">illegally
employed</a>) executive director Robert Berry, from <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/07/bossier-jurors-display-reelection.html">favoritism
to elected officials who appoint them</a> to <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/05/horton-seabaugh-making-themselves-hard.html">resisting
accountability</a> to wasting <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/10214951/4410243584624630860">tens
of thousands of dollars in fruitless legal expenses and more on grandiose,
unrealistic plans</a> (which the renewal still advocates, as it in part would
be dedicated to operating a zoo the conceptualization and intentions of which have
been thoroughly botched).</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That and the size of the millage and the election
date conspire to put this renewal in real jeopardy. Already asked to approve about
20 mils, voters might think they can afford to drop 7.5 percent of it that they
would see the 1.54 mils as not being missed, even as that comprises over half
of park revenues for <a href="https://app2.lla.state.la.us/publicreports.nsf/0/e410456cf4a4204486258a350076f472/$file/00002c5f.pdf?openelement&.7773098">2022</a>.
And while the election date helps the other levies’ chances of renewal, because
as very likely these four items will complete the ballot’s entirety which will
disproportionately attract to the polls the beneficiaries and families and friends
of most of the items (i.e., Bossier City public safety employees and Bossier
Parish library employees) in favor of these, with close to zero direct
beneficiaries of the district more than offset by a number of disgruntled
landowners, this hurts the chances of that millage passing (although it <a href="https://www.legis.la.gov/Legis/Law.aspx?d=206503">could get another shot
later in the year</a> if this failed).</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Commissioners seem to recognize this and have been
trying to engage landowners in a public relations campaign to improve their
image. They may need to extend that to the public, who will see their ballots
asking for taxes for something most never have heard of, and of those who have
many will have heard negative things, that would seem easy for government to do
without. Of course, a large PR campaign will cost money of which the district
has none, being in the hole $92,650 which would have been nearly three times as
much at the end of 2022 if not for an unspecified one-time insurance payout
that year.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While each of the three entities smartly asked for
renewing at the current millages being paid rather that at the higher amounts
that the measures originally authorized, that may not save the District’s
request from tax-fatigued voters. Rejection of that would send a signal to the District at present as
well as to Bossier City and the Parish for the future that voters will take
only so much misrule before they start casting retribution. </span></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-17009928388867258712024-02-15T17:37:00.002-06:002024-02-15T17:37:30.406-06:00Next session offers big chance to reduce crime<p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-crime-session-landry-c743c5945972acea8f36693ba825f4c2">The
next special session this year of the Louisiana Legislature</a>, dealing with
justice matters with a bit of monetary matters thrown in, promises to be remarkable
both in successful coverage of a governor’s intent and setting the stage to
achieve a policy goal of crime reduction.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Last week, Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a> issued
the <a href="https://gov.louisiana.gov/assets/Proclamations/2024/13-JML-2024-Proclamation.pdf">call</a>
of two dozen items, and with four days to go before commencement of the meetup
that could go as long as 17 days possibly ending only five days before the start
of the regular session – leaving several days still realistically for
introduction of bills – prefiled bills covered nearly all of these. The two
biggest omissions at present were the most complicated, dealing with surplus
money accumulating for this fiscal year, and the most controversial, <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/01/why-it-failed-part-ii-judicial-remap.html">reapportionment
of state Supreme Court districts</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Just about everything else had been addressed by
bills with one or more items, with a few bills offering complementary
approaches on the same subject. Clearly Landry had consulted with legislative and
other allies on the content of his call, given this response, of items designed
to increase punishment of more guilty parties in a greater age range with
increased transparency.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Which, apparently by their choice, didn’t include
the super-minority Democrats in each chamber. Only a single of the 28 bills
prefiled at present has a Democrat as sponsor, a reflection that legislative Democrats
want to avoid the agenda, as it has the potential to undo a goodly portion of
changes in criminal justice they favored that ended up emptying jails to some
extent <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/01/report-falls-short-defending-justice.html">but
did little, if anything to reduce crime if not actually increase its rates</a>,
and didn’t really save any money (as a consequence of having to raise <i>per diem</i>
rates for local jailers since the volume of state convicts sent their way decreased).
The left preaches for reduced punishment, as well as diluting other public
safety tools such as by bail elimination (which isn’t explicitly mentioned in
the call but perhaps could have shoehorned in minimum bail requirements), as that
fits its narrative that consequences for criminals have a discriminatory, if
not racist, component to these.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Perhaps before it’s all over a Democrat also will sally
forth on the Supreme Court reapportionment issue, in trying to cough up a bill
most favorable to electing proportionally the most Democrats onto the Court
(there’s no legal imperative to reapportionment at this time, but Landry for
years has expressed concern over the highly malapportioned state of the
existing districts). However, enacting any change there might constitute the
heaviest lift of all the items, given the crowded nature of the upcoming legislative
calendar and the complex politics involved that could produce maps anywhere
from seven to nine districts with one or two majority-minority districts that
would favor Democrats.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That effort could involve a series of
supermajority approvals that makes passage prospects uncertain, and points to
the only other measure at present that also would require supermajority approval
which may keep from it making it into law: lowering the age at which a juvenile
may be prosecuted as an adult. <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/01/done-right-la-lowering-age-will-reduce.html">There’s
good empirical reason to do that</a>, but with Democrat unanimity almost
certain against almost all bills, just a few Republicans in each chamber could
scuttle something like GOP state Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=28">Heather Cloud</a>’s <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342818">SB 3</a> or
Republican state Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=33">Stewart
Cathey</a>’s <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1343614">SB
11</a> that intend to do that.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Other than in these areas, with only majorities
needed for passage and a governor willing to sign everything adhering to his
agenda at present well-reflected in the prefiled bills, most of these are slam dunks
for passage, with the only ones of this grouping not likely going all the way coming
as a consequence of more than one bill pertaining to these subjects being introduced.
Democrats only can try to water these down, and may succeed occasionally at the
margins, but look for almost everything offered to succeed almost exactly the way
Landry had hoped.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">All from Republicans, the most consequential, and therefore
the most controversial, are <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342726">HB 2</a> by state
Rep. <a href="https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Reps/members.aspx?ID=59">Tony Bacala</a>,
<a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342728">HB 6</a> by
state Rep. <a href="https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Reps/members.aspx?ID=86">Nick
Muscarello</a>, <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342769">HB
12</a> by state Rep. <a href="https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Reps/members.aspx?ID=1">Danny McCormick</a>,
<a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342788">SB 1</a> and <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342793">SB 2</a> by state
Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=22">Blake Miguez</a>, SB 3, <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342890">SB 6</a> by state
Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=31">Alan Seabaugh</a>, <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1342899">SB 8</a> by state
Sen. <a href="https://senate.la.gov/smembers?ID=30">Mike Reese</a>, and SB 11. HB
12, SB 1, and SB 2 do away with requiring permits for carrying concealed
firearms and address liability; HB 2 and SB 6 alters immunity for law
enforcement officers carrying out their duties lawfully; HB 6 authorizes three
different methods of capital punishment and shields the identities of participants
and suppliers from public records requests; and SB 8 centralizes public defense
in the governor’s office instead of run by an appointed board.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Of these, the only one that may not be a sure
thing in close to present form is SB 8. Public defense provision has had
chronic problems because of the patchwork funding mechanism too dependent on
the vagaries of local criminal justice conduct. Centralizing operations out of
the governor’s office could lead to <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2019/12/la-public-defense-needs-to-help-itself.html">more
sensible deployment of state funds based upon actual need of the various districts</a>.
But this could raise squawks from special interests sympathetic to the leftist
view of criminal justice, the only real threat to its passage may come from parochial
interests that capture the interest of some in the GOP.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet if all goes the way the winds currently blow, Landry
and allies backing that agenda should score in aggregate a major victory and
steer Louisiana much closer to the rest of politically conservative deep south
states on matters such as capital punishment, concealed carry, and for some the
juvenile/adult line – and towards more effective policy in preventing crime. </span></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-15139563070743030052024-02-14T18:20:00.001-06:002024-02-14T18:22:32.305-06:00Landry offers welcome change in budgeting<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a> <a href="https://www.thecentersquare.com/louisiana/article_45a58bf0-c777-11ee-965e-4f06655a2237.html">produced
a solid budget request for Louisiana</a>, in a refreshing change of pace one
designed to live within the state’s means rather than as an instrument to grow
government.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://www.doa.la.gov/doa/opb/budget-documents/executive-budgets/fy25/">Overall</a>,
the budget envisions slightly lower spending, although about two-thirds of that
fall is driven by reductions in federal dollars as the debt binge used to hose
down states with money dries up. Much of the rest comes from a decline in
statutory dedication receipts, with very nominal decreases in the general fund
and self-generated funds. In these cases, the revenue sources that fell largely
are tied into economic activity at first overstimulated by the enormous
increase in federal spending then sapped by the resulting <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/the-us-avoided-a-recession-in-2023-whats-the-outlook-for-2024.html">sagging
economy slowly slipping into recession</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Thus, Landry and budget architect Commissioner of
Administration <a href="https://www.doa.la.gov/doa/comm/biography/">Taylor
Barras</a> concentrated on slicing spending tied to temporary initiatives or
bonuses. For example, <a href="https://www.doa.la.gov/media/ba5mvv1v/highereducation.pdf">higher
education</a> received about a $100 million cut, but that mostly came from non-recurring
spending outside of the funding formula disappearing. In almost all instances spending
will continue at around standstill levels.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The budget also carves out new money for certain
initiatives. Perhaps principally, even as most parts of state government will
see pullbacks in spending, more dollars will go to corrections, likely in anticipation
of swinging back the pendulum in punishment from policy changes starting with a
special session on justice matters commencing next week for the next two that look
to increase costs through sentencing that requires more jail time and reduced reliance
on alternatives like parole. Of course, health care received the biggest absolute
increase, largely because state spending in that category is held hostage to
federal programmatic rules, with this reliance increasing substantially under Landry’s
predecessor Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That’s the problem Landry faces. Edwards, perhaps
understanding the flukish nature of his governorship that pitted his
considerably leftist ideology against the center-right preferences of the
population and Legislature, tried to bake in as much government spending as
possible when in office, designing things to make it difficult to rein in
spending and where any economic downturn or amelioration of federal dollars flowing
into the state would produce revenue crunches that discouraged any kind of tax
relief.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This has left a poison pill for Landry, particularly
beginning in fiscal year 2026 staring next year when around $477 million in sales
tax receipts roll off the books. Even as other revenues as of now seem likely
to creep higher, that tax relief by cutting sales taxes by about a tenth
creates a budgetary headache for at least a couple of years.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It’s not like insufficient revenues have been the
problem in the past two decades leading to this budget year. Rather, spending has
continued higher with general fund outlays averaging almost three percent a
year growth in that interval, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">outstripping inflation
over that time span</a> by about 15 percentage points – while the <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/states/louisiana/population">state’s
population increased exactly 0.5 percent</a>. Less discretionary expenditures
through self-generated and statutory dedication funding grew even higher, while
federal funds leapt upwards at a rate over double that of general fund dollars.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Landry’s task has been to corral higher spending
in order to induce the right-sizing of government dependent upon less revenues.
And the FY 2025 budget along with his handling of surpluses from previous years
give clues as to how he will approach that.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For starters, the state has a $91 million surplus
this current year that could be appropriated for any purpose. Landry wants to
have it go to justice measures, to backstop future emergency or disaster
spending, and to resolve the contentious issue of updating two-decade-old
voting machines.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">With the $325 million from the previous fiscal
year, except for constitutional requirements steering money to the Budget
Stabilization Fund and to pay down unfunded accrued liabilities in pension
funds, he wants all of it to go to capital projects involving transportation,
coastal restoration, and deferred maintenance of state buildings. This explains
why the general fund contribution to capital outlay will drop 60 percent in the
upcoming budget, freeing up $100 million.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/02/initial-landry-budget-must-curb-govt.html">One
alternative</a> would have put as much as possible into paying down the Teachers
Retirement System of Louisiana UAL, which would have freed considerable dollars
for local education agencies to provide educator pay raises on their own. Last
year, the Minimum Foundation Program had included these at a cost of $198
million, but the Legislature didn’t accept that because at the last minute it
wanted to change allocations within it. The rules such as they are, legislators
had to budget with the FY 2023 formula that didn’t include the raise.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/06/session-did-little-good-but-avoided.html">facilitated
a happy accident</a> where instead of a permanent raise a stipend was given by
the state. Landry again chose this route rather than the paydown, as it
provided more flexibility to fulfill state priorities, even if outside the current
MFP formula, which the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education could alter
to reflect, that would promote performance pay and target high-need subjects.
It gives him the option to scale back next year and/or for BESE to adjust the
formula next year to account for fewer, but more efficiently spent, dollars.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In short, the effort wisely recognizes that the
state must live within its means that concomitantly acknowledges it has tried
to take too much from its people at the expense of economic development, and
sets up a good structure initially to achieve goals of right-sized government
at an appropriate taxing level. As well, it leaves open the opportunity of
future fiscal reform by not locking in new permanent programmatic commitments. The day/night contrast to the previous eight years is stunning and welcome.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-29091678650535289242024-02-13T17:15:00.001-06:002024-02-13T17:17:39.882-06:00For now, LA legislative map decision does little<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">There’s much less to the eye regarding the ultimate
impact of the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-act-louisiana-legislature-black-districts-faec83c9a1cdd7ce925c3cad62469aa3">decision
recently rendered</a> in <i><a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2332024-2-9-Ruling-and-order.pdf">Nairne
v. Landry</a></i> than the possibility this case eventually could upend reapportionment
jurisprudence very much in the opposite direction of the ruling.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The case involves reapportionment of Louisiana’s
legislative districts after the 2020 census, involving plaintiffs similar to
those in the winding-down case regarding <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/12/another-week-another-chance-to-derail.html">reapportionment
of its congressional districts</a>. In that other case, the same Middle
District of Louisiana Judge Shelly Dick ruled an expansive reading of Title 2
of the Voting Rights Act that gives race (given certain circumstances) preference
over other traditional principles of reapportionment (absent compelling
circumstances), essentially sidestepping the text of the law that says it does
not normally confer proportional representation of racial minorities in a state.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In ruling that the state had to draw a map with
two of six black majority-minority districts because about a third of the
population identified as black, which impelled the Legislature to do precisely
that although its product almost certainly is constitutionally defective because
in order to do that race took on a dominant role in making the map, Dick
applied the same rubric to legislative districts. The legal backing for this
she derived from a U.S. Supreme Court decision last year that affirmed custom
over the past six decades and an expanded view of the VRA language as developed
through past court cases allowed for elevating the place of race.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Legislature was given no deadline to swap in a
new map, where it is implied that at least two more Senate and six more House
seats became M/M. (Keep in mind, however, that no case ever has been decided on
the merits validating the proportional argument, much less ended up being
applied by a government by court order.) Practically speaking, this doesn’t become
an issue until at latest the start of 2027 for fall elections that year.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While some observers without a comprehensive
understanding of the issues <a href="https://louisianaradionetwork.com/2024/02/10/35531/">blithely assume the
Legislature will do this</a>, chance are much greater it never will come that.
(Actually, given the greater tolerances courts permit for malapportionment and
for adhering to other principles of reapportionment when it comes to offices
other than Congress, the partisan balance would change little as both chambers
could draw new maps that essentially swap out elected white Democrats with
black Democrats.) That’s because the case has at least one time bomb included
that could blow up the current interpretation of the VRA Section 2 and
guarantees when plaintiffs plea for a remedy (<a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2362024-2-12-motion-for-scheduling-conference.pdf">at
present</a>, special elections with a new map later this year) the state will appeal
and many motions later serve it up to the Court. Nothing politically will
happen for some time to come.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There’s actually another aspect that could cause
this: a split between federal appellate court circuits on whether private
parties can bring suits under that law, which guarantees eventual Supreme Court
intervention. However, <a href="https://fedsoc.org/commentary/fedsoc-blog/two-quirky-appellate-decisions-on-section-2-of-the-voting-rights-act">existing
jurisprudence suggests</a> that the Court will reject the argument no private
right of action exists, which for <i>Nairne</i> is irrelevant anyway because
the Fifth Circuit holds that view.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The state as defendant articulated that defense,
but Dick rejected it precisely because the Circuit had done so. But while the main
land mine of questioning over the current interpretation of the VRA Section 2 she
could dodge for now, ultimately she can’t make go away.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That results from the Assoc. Justice Brett Kavanaugh
<a href="https://fordhamdemocracyproject.com/2023/10/09/justice-kavanaughs-allen-v-milligan-concurrence-invites-further-challenges-to-section-2/">concurrence</a>
in the case that granted race its new privileged place. In it, he questioned
whether that privileging had become timebound, as the nature of society about
race has changed substantially in the decades since, but didn’t adjudicate that
because that other case didn’t bring it up.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But Louisiana unambiguously did forward that
argument in a filing in <i>Nairne</i>. Dick addressed the issue in her ruling
as minimally as she dared in dismissing it, which isn’t unusual (as well allows
her decision to reflect her own political preferences). Lower court judges are
extremely reluctant to base rulings on any Court opinions not the majority,
leaving that up to the Court itself.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">However, that avoidance doesn’t make the issue go
away. Undoubtedly the state will appeal and it’s inconceivable that the Court at
some point wouldn’t take up the case on those constitutional grounds (as well
as perhaps others dealing with the statute) – unless another case elsewhere (<a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/1782023-6-23-Defs-supplemental-breif.pdf">for
example</a>) gets there first. And the tone from the previous case suggests the
Court would strike down the expansive reading of Section 2 as timebound.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Chances are excellent even with the inevitable string
of appeals this reversal will happen before 2027. In the final analysis, the <i>Nairne</i>
ruling changes little, and expect Louisiana to do little in response to it
except continue to fight the case up to the Supreme Court.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-14917089556316806942024-02-12T14:40:00.001-06:002024-02-12T14:40:16.845-06:00Officials wisely eschew problematic new welfare<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Louisianans should thank a couple of senior
officials, one who’s been on the job awhile and the other a newcomer, for saving
the state many millions of dollars, from excess bureaucracy, and from disincentives
to self-sufficiency.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://lailluminator.com/2024/02/10/summer-food/">Last week</a>, new Department
of Children and Family Services Sec. David Matlock <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/01/la-right-to-decline-doling-out-new-cash.html">confirmed</a>
the state wouldn’t take part in the new Summer EBT program sponsored by the
federal government, Essentially, the new program – born from the pandemic era as
an additional direct cash benefit – extends the school meal programs designed
to help lower-income families into the summer when school isn’t in session, although
a parallel program already exists doing the same in pickup or congregate
fashion. It would provide $40 per child for three months.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">While many states accepted this welfare expansion,
some have turned it down, and Matlock’s explanation tracks these reasons given
by others. He pointed out the large amount, about 28 times the dollars turned
down, that the state distributes in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program money
almost half of which goes to children (very generously which almost entirely
overlaps the Summer EBT intended audience; for example, paying for a family of
two qualifying for the new program $535 a month).<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">He didn’t add that Louisiana already goes above
and beyond federal regulations by having taxpayers pick up the modest
co-payment tabs for partial qualifiers of school meals, nor that the relatively
high improper payment rate for the new program’s electronic benefits would
waste millions of dollars annually. And, the state would have had to pay around
$3 million in administrative costs a year plus additional costs to install a
system to handle the debit cards needed that would have cost at least several
million more dollars.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Taxpayers also would have lost out in another way.
Somebody has to pay, Louisianans included, for this extra federal government
spending, either directly through higher taxes and/or reduced services
elsewhere or indirectly in higher interest and inflation rates spurred by the
additional debt issued to back the estimated $3.5 billion annual cost if all
states participated.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Assuredly Republican Gov. <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/page/meet-the-governor">Jeff Landry</a> had input
into the matter, and only because the recently reappointed state Superintendent
of Education Cade Brumley made that possible. Although DCFS would run the
program, the Department of Education as a partner also had to give its
approval, and Brumley refused to do so at the end of last year despite pressure
brought against him by the outgoing Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards Administration
and leftist media outlets.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Brumley refused to buckle, wisely determining that
the incoming Landry shouldn’t be bound for this year to a decision made only nine
days prior to his inauguration by his predecessor, nor should disallow input by
an entirely new Legislature that would be on the hook for at least $10 million
had the commitment to proceed been made. The federal government extended the
deadline, originally at year’s end, to Feb. 15 to facilitate this option.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Plenty of resources exist to ensure adequate
nutrition for Louisiana’s children, and where if more aid must come this could
be delivered in a fashion much better targeted, less costly, and less prone to distribution
to those not actually eligible or to fraudulent use, through existing programs
which are better designed to promote self-sufficiency. Politicians and special
interests who see government as a vehicle for a wealth redistribution ideology will
squawk at the decisions made by Matlock and Brumley, but Louisianans who prize policy
that actually improves people’s lives without unnecessarily burdening others should
applaud the pair.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-16328890961807024312024-02-11T18:40:00.002-06:002024-02-11T18:43:09.318-06:00BC review panel signals moves on term limits<p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The term limits issue in Bossier City elections
took interesting turns this past week that will impact what voters see on the
ballot the remainder of the year and reveals the high stakes involved for the
parish’s political establishment.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://www.ktbs.com/news/bossier-charter-commission-members-disagree-about-term-limits/article_8f9734ce-c561-11ee-9370-97c78b9c8dfe.html">Last
week</a>, the city’s <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/499/Bossier-City-Charter-Commission">Charter
Review Commission</a> <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Agenda/_02052024-598">met</a>
mainly to go over more preliminaries about input into its task, but sparks flew
when the term limits subject came up. The four appointees by Republican Mayor Tommy
Chandler and Republican Councilors <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/256/At-Large---Chris-Smith">Chris Smith</a>
and <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/474/District-1---Brian-Hammons">Brian
Hammons</a> at various points have signaled they want to see the
recommendations forwarded include a term limits measure.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2024/02/bc-charter-review-initially-seems.html">Up
until then</a>, the assumption had been the commission – voted into existence by
all councilors except Hammons and Smith and excepting that pair multiple times
voted against placing a certified petition under the city charter, and in
violation of it, to establish a lifetime three-term limit to elected officials
retroactively applied that would have disqualified four of the five from running
in 2025 – was a vehicle to head off meaningful term limits in the immediate
future either by recommending a weak substitute or by pairing a measure with
such an unpopular measure, as consideration comes as a package deal, that would
send it to defeat. The other five appointees represent the anti-term limits councilors
– Republicans <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/258/At-Large---David-Montgomery">David
Montgomery</a>, <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/268/District-4---Jeff-Free">Jeff
Free</a> and <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/271/District-5---Vince-Maggio">Vince
Maggio</a>; Democrat <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/262/District-3---Don-Williams">Bubba Williams</a>,
and no party <a href="https://www.bossiercity.org/261/District-2---Jeffery-Darby">Jeff Darby</a>.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Adding fuel to the fire that the purpose of the
commission in the eyes of that majority was to neuter term limits, while
Chandler, Smith, and Hammons have taken advantage of the charter’s call for appointers
to suggest topics – and named term limits – none of the others did. It became a
bonfire when mayoral appointee Shane Cheatham addressed the subject positively,
only to be met with resistance by others.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Vicky Whitman, the appointee of Maggio and wife of
Republican City Marshal Jim Whitman, said she was interested in a comprehensive
review that wouldn’t lend itself to a term limits measure appearing on either
of the fall ballots, as the commission wouldn’t have finished its work by then.
As reflective of the Bossier political establishment, this view marks a risky
alternative approach to making sure that Darby, Free, Montgomery, and Williams
can stay on the ballot next year.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://bossierpress.com/judge-rules-in-bossier-city-term-limits-case/">Odds
of that improved last week</a> when a 26<sup>th</sup> District Court ruled the
petition for term limits was not properly certified, even though state law
doesn’t address that eventuality. The petition didn’t have entries for voters’
years of birth, even thought it did include voter identification numbers that
when accessed contain that information. The court ruled strictly on statutory
wording, even though other parts of statute suggested such a strict reading
wasn’t warranted.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Further, the main defendant in the case, David
Crockett, indicated they would not pursue an appeal. That means the gun pointed
at most the Council majority bloc on the issue, with rookie Maggio excepted meaning
the four graybeards who have served at least 10 years and as many as 26 thereby
disqualifying them from running next year and impelling them to try to sabotage
any measure with that effect, for the moment has been unloaded and would make their
commissioners much more likely to take a leisurely stroll with the charter review,
perhaps even using it as an instrument to attempt to make changes to strengthen
the establishment’s grip on city politics, such as by trying to make the referendum
process to amend the charter more difficult.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The problem with that approach is that Crockett
and others continue to work on another set of petitions that includes term
limits. They have about seven months to gather signatures again with the aim of
making the December ballot, which if passed as likely would lock out the
graybeards. But by rushing a watered-down measure onto the December ballot,
that counter probably would take precedence through the results as defined in
stature and supplant the restrictive measure that reflects the one torpedoed by
the judiciary.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A more combative but even riskier avenue was broached
by perhaps the definitive establishment voice on the commission, Republican
Police Juror <a href="https://www.bossierparishla.gov/police-jury/police-jurors/district-5">Julianna
Parks</a> who is the wife of Republican City Judge Santi Parks and appointed by
Montgomery. She derided the notion of term limits in an exchange with Cheatham
and let on she didn’t want the idea among any recommendations.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This aggressive tactic of dealing with term limits
might have been in part a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BossierWatch/videos/693288642705298">byproduct of
a Parks political blunder days earlier</a>. Parks’ outspoken public defenses at
various of the get-along-go-along attitude prevalent in Bossier Parish
governance that belittles citizen input in favor of <a href="https://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2023/07/bossier-jury-must-answer-for-unlawful.html">sometime
lawless government behavior</a> has made her a lightning rod for criticism, to
which her typical response has been to portray herself as a victim.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">However, recently she advanced to manufacturing
controversy to allow her to present herself as aggrieved. During a transmission
of the Bossier Watch narrowcast the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BossierWatch/videos/374780525249511">week before</a>,
which generates social media commentary as the show progresses, one frequent
commenter took a dig at Parks’ complaint that Tuesday commission meetings were inconvenient
for her (begging the question of why she would have accepted the appointment),
which neither show host even noticed at the time.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet Parks or some supporter of hers must have combed
very carefully through the hundreds of comments and when these synchronized
with the show dialogue and within hours constructed something at which to take offense.
Seizing upon an obscure slang reference of which the show hosts and commenter
said they had no idea about, she embraced it as a personal insult in a message
she relayed to supposedly personally close social media adherents, as is
typical defining herself as victimized, alleging the remark insulted all of
womanhood and asked that recipients boycott the show for allowing it
(regardless of the impossibility of real-time policing of posted commentary).</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The move backfired when at least one recipient made
the screed public and it was revealed by the show hosts that Parks was engaging
in a campaign beyond social media to discredit them and the commenter, who runs
a news- and entertainment-oriented website in the parish’s south. The over-the-top
petulance of Parks especially looked bad when she tried to equate her
privileged and pampered life and elected official status voluntarily serving
the public with the lives of genuine involuntary sufferers of actual misogyny,
if not of real violence against them.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Taking up the official political establishment
cause on term limits so vigorously in the meeting may have come as a means to
deflect the backlash against her play for sympathy/quest to delegitimize a pair
of frequent critics, but it also may have been a preemptive strike from the
term limits disease spreading elsewhere in the parish, particularly for the
Jury. The Lawrason form of government of the parish
makes it difficult for imposing term limits which would have to be accomplished
by statute, but <a href="https://legis.la.gov/legis/law.aspx?d=88686">it has
been done in the case of Lincoln Parish</a>. More threateningly, the <a href="https://www.bossierparishla.gov/police-jury/police-jurors/district-5">Constitution</a>
establishes a procedure for petitioning the election of a home rule charter
commission by just ten percent of the electorate that could create a document
limiting juror terms. Giving in on term limits by the city charter review board
that leads to a successful vote could encourage advocates to bring the same to
the parish, so perhaps best to nip it in the bud.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Regardless of motive, it’s an even riskier proposition
just to leave it off. That gives term limits advocates the chance to put
something on the ballot without competition. With a November election placement
unlikely via the active petition, the commission anti-term limits majority putting
a toothless but competing measure on December’s even if passed without a
petitioned version will accomplish the primary objective of the graybeards
being able to run in 2025. Petitioners could hold their powder and get it on
the city election ballot next spring instead, but even if it succeeded among
voters the graybeards still will have had their opportunities to last in office
at least until 2029.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The high-stakes poker playing over Bossier City
term limits as practiced by the commissioners will make for interesting watching
as city electoral politics start to heat up for next year’s contests.</span></p><p class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><o:p></o:p></p>Jeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.com0