As noted previously, even with his long experience and family name, Landrieu could not be considered the favorite for the spot unless no high-quality black opponent emerged, somebody with elective policy-making experience in government. Several passed on it, but one who got in the chase was state Sen. Edwin Murray and seemed like the best bet to make a runoff against Landrieu, who unexpectedly entered the fray less than a month ago. If so, an enormous edge in black voting registration would have made it difficult for Landrieu to secure the win.
In other words,
Unless one of the remaining black candidates can hurriedly demonstrate some major fundraising prowess, the election environment otherwise will create momentum for some blacks, who almost double up on whites in the electorate, to go with Landrieu and discourage others from turning out, giving Landrieu the ability to win. Henry might be the best placed, being an outsider of government with a successful business background to contrast with the insider Landrieu and the current regime running the city into the ground again.
The problem is, the one who is encouraging the present follies in city government was before assuming the city’s top job was an outsider with a business background, Mayor Ray Nagin. New Orleanians historically put insiders into the position so the chance they took on Nagin, twice, may have soured them on the kind of candidate that is Henry.
Regardless, Landrieu’s biggest obstacle is out of the way and unless something happens soon where support suddenly coalesces around a black candidate, he has established himself as the most likely to collect eventually on his dream post.