Tax reform paying off more quickly than thought

 With apologies for stealing and changing this line: OK, Landry, Nelson, Emerson, et. al. were right.

Last week, Louisiana’s Revenue Estimating Conference held its end-of-calendar-year meeting to revise numbers. These revisions can mean the state might have extra money from past budget years to spend on essentially one-time items, extra money for this budget year to spend on anything, and more to spend on the upcoming fiscal year 2027 budget – or it might be reversals in this year where forecasts could cause retrenchments and reduced future expenditures, respectively.

With almost a year of data from changes made during last year’s Third Extraordinary Session of the Legislature now on the books, many of the usual suspects from the collectivist political left then predicted at best “uncertainty,” at worst “budget shortfalls” as a result of flattening tax individual and corporate tax rates, broadening the base a little by excising some exemptions, increasing individual exemption levels, and increasing the sales tax rate. Howls of protest came about how this would prove to be regressive and hurt lowest-income people’s pocketbooks (although one analysis estimated it would cost a whopping $5 extra a year for such a household).

LA coastal planning must avoid past mistakes

The philosophical change concerning Louisiana’s coastal policy will bring greater benefits when a more scientifically-based approach infuses the upcoming 2029 Master Plan for the coast.

The Republican Gov. Jeff Landry Administration since taking office signaled a strategy alteration in how to handle the state’s receding coastline. Rather than spend enormously on a very few big projects designed to reshape water carriage and runoff to entice this to become a conduit of sediment in a fashion that should rebuild land, the new leadership over the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority plans to emphasize many smaller projects that rebuild discrete locations and augment protection from flooding. This approach minimizes disruption of existing economies and ecosystems.

The Master Plan, devised every six years, provides overall guidance, but annually the CPRA after its Board’s approval must present a list of specific projects for funding by the Legislature. Those selected must be congruent with the direction of the Plan. The roster for fiscal year 2027 contains less spending because the previous main strategy of flowing water diversions was so much more expensive, absent now as the Landry Administration halted that work.

Those invested in the prior approach squawked when the paradigm shift occurred and currently claim they will support the list as long as, in their opinion, it comports to the Plan. But the longstanding problem with the plan extant is how it strays from depoliticized science as its foundation.

The past two plans, both ratified under the Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards Administration, used entirely unrealistic modeling, for example, of exaggerated eustatic sea level rise based upon highly unlikely scenarios. Ensuing research has verified that misfire, and with this as a part of growing evidence that hyperventilated claims have no evidentiary or theoretical backing even acolytes of the ideology behind that “science,” catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, are losing faith.

Garbage in, garbage out, so that makes the Plan’s focus suspect. Thus, it’s wise for CPRA leadership to rein in the vastly expensive projects and concentrate on smaller, more protective ones in light of the fact that the larger were formulated with apocalyptic scenarios given credence as a significant possibility, which only wastes money by an overexaggerated approach.

But the real work remains with the next iteration of the Plan returning to a more science-based approach free of ideology. Work on it already has started with a series of public solicitations and more planned.

Coming up with a plan based on realistic assumptions will serve taxpayers better and target better the right interventions to prevent coastal land loss and to protect vulnerable populations from natural disasters. That will be a welcome change, and while the Landry Administration is doing the best it can to compensate for past mistakes, there’s no substitute for having the correct foundation in place by which to make project decisions.

LA housing policy needs quick corrective shift

Louisiana needs to pick up the pace in transforming its housing provision strategy, which spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually, due to a major programmatic shift at the national level.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development recently announced a retreat from allowing a near-purist “housing first” methodology by introducing more elements of a “treatment first” model. Housing first concentrates funding on provision of housing as quickly and as permanently as possible, while treatment first seeks to address potential health and behavioral issues prior to access to permanent housing.

Ideally, dosages of both approaches would be applied, with the housing model focused mainly on temporary rental and other assistance with government-financed residence construction as a last resort, but subordinate to the treatment model because the central cause of homelessness, for the nondisabled population, is from behavioral problems often stemming from mental health issues. Indeed, just over three-quarters of the adult homeless population has such issues, the large majority stemming from alcohol and drug abuse.

LA library boards need to exercise ratified power

Thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court and Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, clarity now exists (although perhaps requiring a confirmatory future Court opinion) for Louisiana library boards of control in what they can regulate as content in their parish libraries. It’s now up to them to act.

This week, the Court denied a hearing of Little v. Llano Co., ratifying the Fifth Circuit’s ruling. Llano County’s (TX) library commission had removed several books from circulation that it found unworthy of backing with public dollars, prompting a few aggrieved residents to sue on First Amendment grounds.

The Fifth Circuit made quick work of that ridiculous argument. It said the amendment had no historical and intended basis of giving an individual the right to demand that taxpayer dollars be spent on or the judgment of public servants conform to putting into circulation a certain book. If people in a jurisdiction wanted a different outcome, they should elect officials that, in exercising the power of their offices or in delegation of those, who would select those books.

Deshae Elizabeth Lott Sadow, 1971-2025

Some readers already know of this. I was hesitant to alert all of you because publicizing obituaries or funerals in particular can end up, as I have witnessed, as instruments of distraction from the rendering of a person's life and character. But among people I know more than in an incidental way who have had an impact on the political world, from great to small, I have published reflections on their lives, which included my father and mother who were on the smaller side in impact. Thus, by that metric I can't exclude Deshae, who served for (basically) two-and-a-half years on the Louisiana Developmental Disabilities Council and had very definitive policy preferences about how the state interacts with its people with disabilities -- opinions that have been reflected in posts here from time to time and which I may give a fuller airing in the future here and in other channels -- as well as had other strong political views unrelated to that.

Do not feel sorrow for me. Save that for the fact we have lost such a remarkable person and that the world is poorer for everybody without her among us. The first two links above will tell you why, which I encourage all readers to review.

Birthright case could increase LA GOP legislators

Maybe Republican former Sen. David Vitter was right, and if Louisiana causes one momentum-shifting constitutional case outcome, it might get caught up with another that would cause changes in its state legislature just as politically consequential.

Any day now the U.S. Supreme Court could rule on Callais v. Louisiana, which could declare that reapportionment of legislative districts becomes too race-conscious if drawing maps to reflect roughly a proportion of a jurisdiction’s minority population onto its proportion of majority-minority seats of that minority. That would mean for Louisiana’s congressional map its Legislature could draw a plan that favors the election of five Republicans and one Democrat, as opposed to the current map that has produced two Democrats.

Such a decision would leave current legislative maps with slight Republican supermajorities in stasis. Nairne v. Landry currently challenges the two chamber maps but using the same logic contested in Callais. If the Court rules as expected to negate the use of race in such an intrusive fashion, the complaint in Nairne vanishes.

Nelson appt upgrade to achieving Regents' goal

Louisiana is getting a noticeable upgrade with Richard Nelson assuming the presidency of the Louisiana Community and Technical College System.

Nelson currently helms the state’s Department of Revenue, having served as a state representative for one term and running for governor before exiting the race early. He carved out a reputation for fiscal responsibility, offering several pieces of legislation well-designed to make the state more competitive economically, and took many of those ideas and stumped successfully to put some of them into law once Republican Gov. Jeff Landry installed him overseeing Revenue. Others fell by the wayside by a defeated constitutional amendment, but there will be another try with them for voters in 2026.

That commends him well in taking over a higher education system which has had its traditional model of heavy lifting by taxpayers that discouraged efficient operations usurped by a more balanced one that increases reliance on tuition, creating an incentive to provide useful educations to a clientele interested in value for its money. This especially matters with community and technical colleges, for while the former may serve as a gateway to a bachelor degree and above, much of community college emphasis and the entire focus of technical colleges is vocational in nature.

Bossier 2025-26 deficit spending worrisome

A trend that developed in Bossier Parish this year of deteriorating finances looks to accelerate in 2026, according to preliminary budget documents that the Police Jury will discuss at its next meeting, which should send a warning to jurors and the public.

In October, the Jury held its required public hearing on the budget, with passage scheduled to occur at its first December meeting. As over a month-and-a-half has passed since then, numbers may have changed from what was forecast to be the anticipated changes, but they likely are close enough.

When reviewing what by accounting standards are considered to be the major funds of the parish, which combined comprised in 2024 about three-quarters of all revenues deposited, that year was pretty decent. These funds after expensed items and transfers finished $11.7 million in the black, and although the dozen or so minor funds all together had expenditures doubling up their assigned revenues, the parish still overall was $4.7 million to the good.

Election pressures digging deeper Shreveport hole

Despite Shreveport having a turkey delivered to it, election year politics threatens to compound its negative effects even more.

On the heels of budget negotiations that bandy about pay raises for city employees beyond the statutorily-required ones for police, Moody’s Ratings dropped all forms of Shreveport debt down a notch to barely investment grade. It stated essentially two reasons for doing so: the city’s dwindling fiscal position highlighted by its deteriorating fund balances that are indicative of deficit spending, and by its unwillingness to increase further water and sewerage rates to provide sufficient capital to fix the numerous and large deficiencies in its water, sewage, and drainage systems.

The rate issue is the time bomb that Republican Mayor Tom Arceneaux inherited when he took office. Although it barely was discussed during the 2022 campaign, whoever took office as a result would have to address Shreveport’s massive day of reckoning concerning an Environmental Protection Agency consent decree that has gone way over budget. Separately, S&P Global rated the newest issuance low investment grade level and kept the two other issues related to water and sewerage at the same level scarcely above junk status. Additionally, the firm turned negative on the city’s outlook, meaning it increasingly believed a downgrade of ratings was in the cards within the next couple of years.

This has put Arceneaux between a rock and hard place, because he can’t raise rates without the cooperation of a Democrat City Council supermajority that doesn’t want to do that. And, with the 2026 campaign underway, voters might not look kindly on another hike after an increase last year, already having voiced disapproval at a two percent increase of his that didn’t even go towards fulfilling the decree, which councilor criticism forced him to yank.

But making matters worse is Arceneaux has thrown his support behind pay raises for city employees. He proposed a three percent increase for all except those in public safety who would receive five percent as state law mandates at least a two percent increase. For some that is not enough as they would like to see the public safety cohort receive a ten percent hike.

Once again, election year politics may be raising its head, with Arceneaux wanting to give city employees a reason to vote for him. But clearly the city can’t afford that, costing some $4.4 million that the administration claims will come from royalties from oil and gas revenues, federal funds left over from the American Rescue Plan Act and shifting some city funds dedicated to other services, including public streets. In other words, using one-time money and beggaring some needed capital spending.

That is foolhardy, but worse is because the even more foolhardy alternative gets pitched, this makes Arceneaux look like he’s miserly as well. Even before pitching the pay increases, the budget contemplated reducing the general fund balance by $5.5 million, a deficit any recurring pay hike expense will increase even further in future years.

Politically, the pursuit of higher pay with no predictable and stable resources to back it could be an electoral winner, as only the most informed and prudent voters will gig him while city employees will be heartened, and it’s not like opponents announced and unannounced are likely to spend more prudently. Yet it serves as another example of the decades-old can-kicking habit by Shreveport politicians that is building a larger and larger fiscal mess from which not even a supposed fiscally conservative Republican is immune.

Alarmism wave may hit LA data center growth

Climate alarmists have kept busy trying to snuff out the two most important new avenues of economic development in Louisiana, challenging policy-makers to counter such agendas contrary to the benefit of the people.

Earlier this fall, a rogue state judge invented law out of thin air to halt construction of another liquified natural gas production facility for export purposes near Lake Charles. She said the state didn’t take into account the alleged factors of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming effects and “environmental justice” in issuing a permit needed to proceed – an unprecedented ruling.

Although precedent argues that ruling stands little chance of being upheld by a higher court, the state went ahead and revised its determination to expedite the process on the basis of the judicial objections. In it, the state reaffirmed that the concerns it supposedly hadn’t addressed were and concluded the appropriateness of issuing the permit. For now, that may have turned aside the ploy of several activist groups concerned with carbon issued into the atmosphere in the transport and liquidation of natural gas as well as its eventual use after transportation to prevent propagation of the process.