It might be a bit early to celebrate if you’re Louisiana Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry, but you don’t want to wait much later to get going if you’re a candidate for his job or secretary of state, recent surveying shows.
Last week, a group that owns several state television stations released a poll it had commissioned on the governor’s, attorney general’s, and secretary of state’s races. Far and away, Landry lead among gubernatorial candidates with 38 percent of the vote, compared to runner-up Democrat Shawn Wilson at 21 percent. Badly trailing were Republicans state Sen. Sharon Hewitt and Stephen Waguespack with 5 percent and Treasurer John Schorder at 4 percent, independent Hunter Lundy with 3 percent and GOP state Rep. Richard Nelson at 1 percent.
Significantly, this was a truly independent poll but one that showed more softness for Wilson and more strength for Landry than any other. This might have occurred partially as a result of the pollster having a sample 59 percent above the age of 49 while those voters make up about half of the electorate (the pollster tried to cull infrequent voters from the sample), which also resulted in almost half of responses coming through landline telephones when only 30 percent of Louisiana households (as of 2020) even occasionally used landlines.
This means likely Landry’s totals are exaggerated by a few points and Wilson’s underestimated by the same. Yet this actually is good news for Landry, for something like a 35/25 split between the pair makes it more likely that will be the runoff matchup, the one he wants. He would prefer much less one with another Republican, who likely would receive most of the votes of candidates who didn’t make the runoff, than with Wilson who he would defeat decisively.
Importantly, all other Republicans combined for only about 17 percent (Lundy’s vote probably would be split between a Democrat and Republican), and only about the same were undecided (with no clear indication where they might go, as they were fairly evenly split by party and race). This means not only does any single Republican other than Landry have little chance of passing Wilson, but also at least two of the major four other Republicans would have to drop out to give one any chance of consolidating enough votes to have a shot at the runoff.
Notably, Landry is drawing five-eighths of Republicans, two-fifths of independents, and ten times the proportion of Democrats than the 1.8 percent of Republicans Wilson has. He also collects about five-eighths of voters for 2019 GOP gubernatorial candidates Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone and 2020 Republican Pres. Donald Trump’s reelection bid, and a whopping 80 percent of voters disaffected enough with the candidates not to vote in the 2019 race. He even picks up 15 percent of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards 2019 voters and 18 percent of black voters.
The pollster provocatively suggests Landry could win without a runoff, but these numbers indicate that’s a bridge too far. They do show he could crest 40 percent in the general election, which could lead to a 20-point blowout in a runoff. And with a war chest streaking towards eight figures, these numbers eroding more than a little seems unlikely.
His dominance contrasts with the contest for secretary of state where, because in the past she has run and as a Democrat, Gwen Collins-Greenup leads a fragmented GOP field with not even a vote percentage in the double-digits and five-eighths undecided, GOP Public Service Commissioner Mike Francis comes in next at 6 percent and is best positioned to make a runoff with Collins-Greenup, given his bankroll and ability to self-finance, with his closest competitor in those terms at 4 percent being GOP House Speaker Clay Schexnayder.
The same dynamic appears in the numbers for attorney general, which also has five-eighths of respondents undecided. Endorsed Democrat Lindsey Cheek doesn’t have the name recognition of Collins-Greenup and mustered only about half her proportion at 5 percent. Unless she can step on the spending gas quickly, she could get aced out by GOP state Rep. John Stefanski who led with 7 percent and Republican Liz Murrill, currently solicitor general at 4 percent. Without either Republican spending much, Stefanski still had around $700,000 in his kitty and Murrill twice as much.
In both instances, given the large parcel of undecided voters whoever can spend and raise the most among Republicans will make a runoff they will win. And for attorney general, the numbers indicate both are as likely to make it as one facing off with Cheek, meaning in the all-GOP case Stefanski has the edge.
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