Reapportionment shook up Caddo and Bossier Parish representation in the Louisiana Legislature, setting up for some new faces, refugees from other local offices, and intense clashes on this fall’s ballot.
The area’s overall declining population rearranged things considerably. Which boundaries are coming and going will create some interesting dynamics.
In the House of Representatives, District 1 won last time for his first term by Republican Danny McCormick, retreated from Bossier Parish to become a completely Caddo-based entity. He will again face Republican Randall Liles in a race that could be closer than last time. Although McCormick eked out a general election win without runoff, he ran six percentage points better in Bossier than Caddo. Still, the foothold he has established over the past four years and votes reflecting the district’s ideological tilt should be enough to reelect him.
The Bossier precincts largely transfer into District 10, the Webster Parish-based district held by an unopposed Republican Wayne McMahen. The district him for currently has Bossier’s most southern precinct as a footnote, but starting in 2024 his Bossier portion swings north and grows substantially.
The other district within Bossier that largely was an afterthought, the Caddo-based District 2 currently held by the leader of Democrats’ House caucus Sam Jenkins, expanded somewhat around old Bossier City. Jenkins will try for the Senate District 39 seat of term-limited Democrat Greg Tarver, and in his place Democrat Caddo School Board Member Terence Vinson will make his second try for the seat in eight years. He is joined by Democrat Caddo Parish Commissioner Steven Jackson.
Vinson’s familiarity with the district should help, but his main asset is the quite erratic and controversial tenure that Jackson has had in office. In Bossier, Jackson committed his most recent and biggest folly, convicted for impersonating a police officer, which should just add to fodder that ends Jackson’s political career.
Joining Jenkins in pursuit of a Senate seat is District 4 Democrat Cedric Glover. That House territory open, school board member Democrat Jasmine Green, term-limited Democrat commissioner Lyndon Johnson, and former District 3 candidate Democrat Joy Walters, who in 2019 lost narrowly to Democrat Tammy Phelps, who didn’t draw an opponent this year, when she lived in that district. This could go in any direction, likely to the candidate who most convincingly runs to the far left ideologically while conveying an ability to bring home the bacon.
District 5 shifted eastward, still containing southeastern Caddo but with much of it now outside the parish, the plurality of that in southern Bossier and the remainder scattered well south into Red River Parish. Former Bossier Parish School Board Member Republican Dennis Bamburg played his cards right to become only one of three rookies to enter the House next year without drawing any opposition.
While that district entered Bossier, District 6 exited it and will pick up a new representative as GOP state Rep. Thomas Pressly will gun for Senate District 38 that moved over to grab east Shreveport. Michael Melerine, present Board of Elementary and Secondary Education member, also will take part in musical chairs by running for this spot. He is a big favorite against no party public defender Evan McMichael and Democrat theater manager and activist Robert Darrow.
In recent years, the traditional afterthought House district in Caddo has been District 7, as most of it is in rural parishes to the south. GOP incumbent Larry Bagley is heavily favored to retain that seat for a final term. In Bossier, the boundaries shoved a bit north, District 8 Republican Raymond Crews faces no opposition for another term.
As previously noted, district boundary changes and Bossier political establishment annoyance will create a rugged reelection battle for Republican Dodie Horton to secure a final term. She squares off against businessman Chris Turner, the establishment’s pick. Her solid conservative legislative record might be enough to hold him off.
The reconfigured Senate District 38, open as incumbent Barry Milligan declined to run for a second term, that drew in Pressly managed to retain former Democrat now Republican former seat holder John Milkovich. Voters after one term grew sour on his taste for big government in particular and Milligan handily defeated him last time. Pressly is favored over him and also banker but previously political operative Republican Chase Jennings.
Spanning both parishes with a little presence in Bossier, the District 39 race that attracted Glover and Jenkins also brought back Democrat former state Rep. Barbara Norton, who tried to contest Tarver last time but who ran afoul of the residency requirement. With all three having tasted success in running in parts of the district, this also will be a contest where the winning candidate most convincingly runs to the left and shows an ability to pile up the pork. Making things even more interesting, perennial GOP candidate Jim Slagle is back, with his impact uncertain on who will make the runoff, or even against him. However, Glover’s track record also as Shreveport mayor perhaps gives him a slight edge.
Perhaps receiving the award for most far-flung district touching multiple parishes, the plurality of new District 31’s residents lie in Bossier and Caddo, washing over the southern reaches of each. As in the case of House District 9 but for somewhat different reasons, this turned out as a battle of the Bossier political establishment, if not of the rump grouping of white northwest Louisiana Democrats whose power steadily has faded, against conservative insurgents. As previously noted, establishment forces back retired basketball coach Republican Mike McConathy while insurgents are behind one of the Legislature’s most prominent disruptors of traditional liberal populism, term-limited Republican state Rep. Alan Seabaugh in a race sure to be close. Again, a long legislative conservative record may allow Seabaugh to move into the upper chamber.
Finally, as previously noted another contest in which the establishment has a vested interest occurs in District 36, which has migrated south and mostly out of Webster Parish. Republican incumbent Robert Mills, who beat an establishment incumbent last time that spent the most money on a legislative race in history, takes on another establishment favorite in the form of Republican Bossier Parish School Board Member Adam Bass. Mills has run into difficulty among area conservatives by not backing an effort to hold the line on spending hundreds of millions more dollars on capital outlay this past year, and this disgruntlement presented an opportunity for the establishment to jump on him. Mills will have to hope an otherwise solidly conservative voting record carries him to victory.
No comments:
Post a Comment