In contests dealing with the criminal justice system, Caddo Parish voters didn’t see any surprise winners, although how the contests turned out may not have been anticipated.
There wasn’t a whole lot of action for voters. Not atypically, only one district judgeship in the 1st District was contested, and that took some special circumstances. In one of the two majority white registrant special election sections in the 1st (another is majority black), veteran prosecutor Republican Hugo Holland, who is white, secured the Division F (Section 3) seat over local attorney Democrat Treneisha Jackson Hill, who is black, by two percentage points.
That was closer than might be anticipated given a district about even in partisan terms, but where white registrants outnumbered black ones about 3:2. All other judges in the section are white Republicans. Also, Holland would build a significant advantage over Hill in money, with his campaign committee raising $82,000 compared to her $18,000, although she started late in the campaign.
She started late because she was recruited at the last minute to oppose Holland, who has a fearsome reputation as a death penalty prosecutor previously in demand around the state, which raised the ire of capital punishment opponent. He also faced unfounded allegations of racism because blacks were convicted disproportionately of capital crimes and he also was found to have withheld evidence in a pair of cases, although that was adjudged not to affect the outcome of the cases. His presence in the contest started the scramble among some black elected officials and activists to come up with an opponent so he wouldn’t walk in.
And efforts against him almost succeeded. Turnout (unofficially) for the race at nearly 50 percent exceeded all other significant contests except for a couple of schools board races, which might indicate relatively elevated black turnout compared to white turnout. Still, in precincts where the proportion of black Democrats was at least half, turnout was six points lower than in those where Republicans and no-party/other voters combined exceeded a half.
Perhaps factoring into more to the final results was Holland had trouble holding onto his base. Reviewing non-split precincts, he averaged only about 79 percent of the vote where Republican registrants exceeded 50 percent of the total or white Democrats exceeded 10 percent, and 61 percent where no-party/other voters comprised at least 30 percent. Hill racked up 85 percent on average from precincts where black Democrats exceeded 50 percent of registrants and 88 percent where black voters exceeded half, while Holland only captured on average 80 percent in precincts where registered whites exceeded half.
This leakage almost cost him, but it wasn’t quite enough. By contrast, the numbers game worked well for Democrat First District Attorney James Stewart, who defeated principal challenger Republican state Sen. Alan Seabaugh by 13 points, avoiding a runoff. The numbers were against Seabaugh, with whites and blacks registered to vote in the parish in almost equal amounts but with Democrats having a 2:1 advantage.
Seabaugh, who is white, hoped a big war chest could help induce a turnout differential to make up for this gap plus eat into the black Democrat base of Stewart, who is black. However, through the middle of October Stewart had outspent him by about $50,000. And even as Seabaugh could present credible evidence of the relative laxness of Stewart’s office, to the extent Stewart’s campaign became worried that the race was very close that Stewart appeared to be behind a last minute desperation attack distorting and falsifying an event in Seabaugh’s youth, the challenger’s strategy didn’t pay off.
That contest turned out to be very much a base election, and the Stewart camp did a better job of holding onto his which he had to do to press home his superior numbers advantage. Among precincts with at least 90 percent black registrants, Stewart averaged 90 points better while Seabaugh only had a 55-point advantage in precincts with at least 70 percent white registration. His advantage dropped further in precincts with at least 10 percent white Democrats to 24 points and the pair were about even in precincts with at least 30 percent other/no-party voters. And while among precincts with at least 70 percent black Democrats Stewart also had a 90-point buffer, for those with at least half Republicans Seabaugh had but a 58-point cushion.
Finally, the checkered career of Democrat Shreveport City Judge Sheva Sims looks like it will come to an end. The longtime judge, who has garnered multiple sanctions from the Louisiana Supreme Court over the years and actually at present is under suspension for one of them, ran second narrowly to attorney Kharmen Davis-Taylor in a three-woman race. That a longtime incumbent couldn’t close out a contest without a runoff, much less lead the field, indicates she can expect to pick up little support in a runoff.
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