What does the revolt against the electorate by Democrat powerbrokers that chased Democrat Pres. Joe Biden from another term in the White House, almost certain to be replaced by Democrat Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, mean to Louisiana electoral politics? Absolutely nothing.
Much of the party’s leadership and activist cadres turned against Biden not because they were concerned he couldn’t lead the country, not because they feared for his health, but because they saw an electoral landslide for Republican former Pres. Donald Trump and the GOP in the offing should he have remained at the top of the ticket. The move came from purely political calculations as an exercise in attempting to hold the maximal power possible starting in 2025.
For them, ideally that would include reversing the existing campaign momentum and promoting Harris. Yet realistically they and the political left know this to be a long shot with Harris as perhaps the weakest possible replacement. It’s telling that all her presumed competitors quickly assented to her elevation, because they see this election likely as doomed for their party’s nominee and they don’t want to have that around their neck. Such is their aversion to potential damage to their political careers that some even are summarily turning down the job as vice presidential running mate.
Then there are the practical considerations. As a party obsessed with identarian politics, civil war would erupt among Democrats if the torch wasn’t passed to a passed-over black female (Harris had a black Jamaican father and south Asian Indian mother, but identifies as black and, importantly as Democrats also increasingly are gender-obsessed, also as female.) Plus, a lot of legal complexities would be avoided regarding finances by having her as the nominee.
Thus, the plan is to hope for the best but to prepare for the worst while keeping the bench potential maximally intact for 2028. And the preferred semi-sacrificial lamb to keep leftist dreams alive would be one who can do the best to save down-ballot fortunes by attracting voters to prevent increasingly-vulnerable House and Senate incumbents from voters ushering them out.
Harris fits the bill, and so it’s a done deal. Democrats don’t throw away a superior candidate for the future and, as an admitted affirmative action hire, Harris as black hopes to stem the trickling tide of black voters into Trump’s column that if left unabated at current levels not only would induce an Electoral College mini-landslide in his favor, but also could cost Democrats several Senate seats and dozens in the House. And, in picking a running mate, Harris could tab someone from a swing state with endangered congressional candidates and hope some coattails form on their behalf to salvage possibly some more seats.
Of course, that latter consideration is irrelevant to Louisiana, which isn’t a swing state by any stretch. Yet as well, the calculation of drawing black voters away from Trump or getting them off the sidelines to vote for Democrats also won’t matter in Louisiana, for a different reason.
At both the congressional and state levels, the only races Democrats can win are in districts deliberately designed to encourage black victors. Thus, in both the Second and Sixth Districts the bonus of black voters from Harris at the top of the ticket won’t have an impact, as black candidates are running for those posts already that will encourage voting by blacks. The same is true for the Supreme Court’s District 2 race. And in the only state contest not in a black-majority district and which didn’t attract a black candidate, given the large overlap with these other contests for the Public Service Commission’s District 2, Harris still won’t stimulate more than a trivial amount of extra black voters in this one for Democrats, who in this contest basically are running a cipher candidate whose impetus as the only Democrat only will get him to the runoff if one of the two Republicans greatly outdistances the other, who then would trounce that Democrat in a runoff.
Even the most important local race this cycle, for mayor-president of Baton Rouge, won’t have Harris producing a black voter bonus as the two leading candidates in this race are black and will do plenty to stimulate turnout, besides the overlap from the other races. That facet will shape area contests even further down the ballot without the Harris candidacy, as opposed to Biden, at the top of the ticket. If the changing of horses in midstream has any effect at all, it would trickle down only to shape the smallest scale offices, if any of these contests at all.
So, Harris becoming the presumptive nominee has a great big zero impact in Louisiana. It’s unlikely to help Democrats’ presidential hopes, but at the margins could stem losses for Congress outside of Louisiana and maybe give slight boosts for Democrats in states and jurisdictions not majority black but with substantial black voting blocs, but that won’t include Louisiana.
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