As
noted last week, a poll
for The Hayride website by Remington Research produced the following results:
Kyle Ardoin: 13%Renee Fontenot Free: 10%
Heather Cloud: 8%
Julie Stokes: 8%
A.G. Crowe: 7%
Gwen Collins-Greenup: 6%
Rick Edmonds: 3%
undecided: 45%
And this week, a poll
by JMC Analytics for the state Rep. Rick Edmonds campaign gave these results:
Fontenot Free: 22%Stokes: 11%
Edmonds: 11%
Collins-Greenup: 4%
Ardoin: 3%
Cloud: 2%
Crowe: 1%
Other candidate: 1%
undecided: 46%
That they collected data a week apart can’t
explain this – there’s was no major news between Sep. 12-20 that could cause
such dramatic reshufflings in this low-profile contest. Nor does an explanation
by the creator of the temporally later of the two, JMC’s principal John
Couvillion, wash.
Couvillion tried to explain why the incumbent
Ardoin polled so low by arguing revelation of alleged bid-rigging by his
office. But that was old news prior to the Remington poll, having emerged
a month earlier. And the few campaign communications that have gone out
since then haven’t had any Ardoin opponent extensively hammer home the issue.
Observed differences, then, came from one of two
or both sources: either the manner of polling differed, or one or both were victimized
by “unhappy randomization,” or hitting on the one in twenty chance (according
to the polls’ metrics) that one or both drew an unrepresentative sample of the
public. Reviewing the details of each can determine which seems to present the most
representative snapshot.
One major difference is sample size. The Remington
one had over twice as many respondents, 1,615, than did the JMC one. All other things
equal, larger samples more likely present more representative results.
Remington’s also speaks to contacting likely
voters, while JMC’s says it contacted likely voting households through an
automated system, which Remington also used. Remington asked more than 20
questions and JMC only 3. This is a crucial point. Automated collection runs
the risk of picking up nonvoters and even unregistered individuals. Further, it
could skew the demographics to make the sample less representative.
Pollsters will try to compensate for this by asking
demographic questions and adjusting the call balance throughout. That is, if an
inordinate amount of completed calls come from, say, black households, the
dialing protocol can adjust to oversample on white households until the desired
balance occurs. So, the more demographic questions asked, the more one can
mitigate the chances of an unrepresentative sample.
As it turns out, JMC asked a single demographic
question – sex, the least robust control of all. Remington asked at least one
additional – ideology identification, another control not all that robust – but
perhaps several others as part of the survey protocol. If so, that gives it a
distinct advantage in securing maximal representativeness.
(NOTE: after this original publication, Remington confirmed it asked questions about sex, race, and party identification, while geographic information was inferred from the respondent information used.)
(NOTE: after this original publication, Remington confirmed it asked questions about sex, race, and party identification, while geographic information was inferred from the respondent information used.)
Regardless of confirmation strategies, the demographics
didn’t end up too far apart. JMC overweighed a bit on black households and
Lafayette residents while Remington went higher on Baton Rouge and New Orleans
residents and Democrats. Much of this likely has to do with differing models of
turnout, although some could be an artifact of sampling which, because of its
smaller sample, would have had a greater likelihood with JMC.
Some of these differences might explain the differing
distributions; for example, Ardoin’s better showing on Remington’s and better
performances by the Democrats with JMC’s. Then again, four percent more black
households seems a stretch to explain why JMC had Democrats picking up over a
quarter of the vote while Remington had them at less than a sixth, and that the
only black Democrat in the race, Collins-Greenup, got six percent in Remington’s
but only four percent in JMC’s.
One other issue might have inflated Ardoin’s
totals with Remington: that survey apparently didn’t rotate names in the question,
instead asking all Republicans first in alphabetical order, then the two Democrats
in the same fashion. Some respondents not knowing anything about a race but wanting
to give an answer for whatever reason will attach to the first name they hear,
in Remington’s case apparently always Ardoin.
The short JMC poll did ask another question that
overlap to a degree with Remington’s: whether to reelect Democrat Gov. John Bel
Edwards. Both delivered the same proportion to reelect, 43 percent, but Remington
had 46 percent for “someone new” while JMC had 37 percent to say he didn’t deserve
“to be reelected.”
Undoubtedly the question wordings – “If the 2019
Election for Governor of Louisiana were held today, would you definitely vote
to reelect John Bel Edwards or would you give someone new a chance?” and “Do
you believe that Governor John Bel Edwards deserves to be re-elected?” – had something
to do with 9 percent more undecided than negative. It’s also possible that the
slightly different sampling frame, with more blacks in JMC’s, might also have
reduced the negative response.
So, should Edmonds be reassured, Ardoin worried,
etc.? Given its much larger sample and apparent control questions, Remington’s
results have the edge. Discounting the week’s difference as immaterial and
weighing JMC’s at a third of both, you get something like this (rounded):
Fontenot Free: 14%Ardoin: 10%
Stokes: 9%
Cloud: 6%
Edmonds: 6%
Collins-Greenup: 5%
Crowe: 5%
undecided: 45%
Which comes out with a more closely-packed field
that seems more realistic in a low-information, low-interest environment.
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