LA budget inevitably faces cuts starting now

As the physical health of Louisianans remains threatened, the state’s current fiscal health continues to deteriorate, with more damage coming as a result of extending by Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards measures that effectively close many businesses and dampen commerce now through the end of April.

To review the condition of the state financially prior to the first Edwards proclamation that attenuated business activity, economists had predicted on the order of $170 to $236 million greater revenues for fiscal year 2020, and for FY 2021 of $103 million. The orders will have put a halt to some business activities for at least one-eighth of the year. Essentially, five things are affected: income taxes, sales taxes, gaming taxes, other taxes, and severance/petroleum taxes and their externalities.

Some, like casino operations and video poker, essentially are shut down entirely for the entire period. Others like sales tax and income tax face some shrinkage because commerce declines and idled workers draw no income, nor do shuttered business. A depressed economy somewhat affects oil prices by reducing demand, but other exogenous factors also play out that will depress the price. The state estimated around $59 a barrel on average for FY 2020 and $60 for FY 2021.

Edwards chose higher-cost way to flatten curve

The good news is Louisiana maybe has entered the downhill portion past the worst of the health crisis. The bad news is that policy decisions will make that stretch longer and more painful than it could have been.

Yesterday, at what has become typical afternoon news conferences concerning the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards sounded more upbeat about the state’s prospects. He proclaimed that, in part due to what he alleged was the nation’s highest rate of testing and to social distancing measures (many of which come imposed courtesy of a series of proclamations he has made utilizing emergency powers), the rate of infection seemed to be tailing off, or “flattening the curve.” He recommended staying the course, continuing such measures and his proclamations to encourage these through their targeted expiration date of Apr. 30.

He was wrong about the testing data. Actually, as of that time (and as of today as well), Louisiana ranked second per capita in the country, at 1.61 percent of the population tested, to New York’s 1.75 percent. The Empire State continues to lead Louisiana in deaths per million, 322 to 140, and in infection ratio of 1:130 to 1:273 (Louisiana also has started to trail New Jersey in both categories as well).

LA virus policy leaves little improvement room

The bad news is Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards made mistakes in his responses to the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in the state. The worse news is as a result he can’t do much to attenuate its ill-effects, which are among the worst in the country.

Essentially, Edwards did three things wrong:

1.     He discounted the massive incubation effect of Carnival and the proactive strategy it required to mitigate.

2.     He banked everything on a one-size-fits-all reactive social distancing strategy.

3.     He became locked into that where intensifying it brings few rewards with many costs and leaves no genuinely good alternatives.

LA has virus costs under control ... for now

The costs Louisiana incurs in battling the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic keep adding up, potentially presenting a growing budgetary problem.

Louisiana’s condition deteriorated rapidly so that as of today it ranks third in both infection rate and deaths per capita, prompting Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards only two weeks after the first confirmed case to ask for and have granted a disaster declaration from Republican Pres. Donald Trump. This allows the state to have 75 percent of disaster-related costs reimbursed by the federal government.

The problem is, these have accumulated quickly. As of this morning, the state had spent almost $569 million on its response. This means it and local governments owe in the neighborhood of $142 million.

Failing LA virus strategy needs drastic change

When Louisiana found itself unprepared to test aggressively for the Wuhan coronavirus as a proactive strategy to quarantine or treat, the fallback reactive strategy that Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards had to resort to assumes personal behavior will flatten the infection curve. But it’s not working well, precisely because leadership failed to prepare for the onslaught.

Edwards has rolled the dice on exhorting the citizenry to minimize personal contact among themselves in order to break the back of the state’s infection rate that not only stubbornly refuses to subside, but also tries to shift higher. His strategy also treats the state as one, despite the enormously higher rates of infection and death in the New Orleans area. This weekend, he plead some more for the public to follow social distancing guidelines as directed from his office, saying strict adherence to these could make a big difference.

Not really. It would help, but only to turn a prolonged large disaster in certain parishes into a lesser, somewhat shorter disaster in these. Had Edwards acted differently a month ago, it never would have mutated into a crisis of these proportions.

Edwards mistakes exacerbated LA virus plight

While other states have begun “flattening the curve” of Wuhan coronavirus cases, Louisiana hasn’t yet. Policy mistakes by Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards and big city mayors explain why.

Two errors stand out in particular, although in retrospect avoiding one would have demanded expert crystal ball-reading skills even as it fed into the other. That was failure of attenuation, if not cancellation, of Carnival parading and celebrations. The first U.S. case cropped up in Washington on Jan. 19, and when Carnival started in earnest on Feb. 14 the country as a whole had just a baker’s dozen of cases, a number that barely rose by Carnival’s close on Feb. 25.

Edwards engaged in some minor finger-pointing in this regard when queried about his inaction. “There was never any hint from anyone to me … that there should be any consideration to downsizing or canceling Mardi Gras,” he told a national television audience. On Mar. 11, after Louisiana’s first case popped up Mar. 9, he issued the first of a series of proclamations that increasingly have confined citizens and closed businesses.

LA virus testing, death data don't add up

With little attention or fanfare, this week Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards extended a series of proclamations limiting gatherings and commercial activity to stave off the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic. He did this using data that appears increasingly questionable.

Observers such as MacAoidh already have pointed out not only errors in data collection that affect perceptions about the disease’s contagion in Louisiana, but also have noted timing involved in releasing specific numbers on specific days fits a pattern designed to produce messaging that promotes a political agenda. Certainly, continuation of the Edwards bans throughout the entire state idles further a Legislature chomping at the bit to enact policy contrary to Edwards’ liking while it embolden actions comporting to his general philosophy of expanding government through increased taxation and spending.

The extension again raises the question of whether a blanket approach serves the state’s best interest. The figures for today continue to show the virus, at least in a critical form, remains largely a New Orleans-area phenomenon. Orleans, Jefferson, and their surrounding St. Tammany, St. Bernard, Plaquemines, LaFourche, and St. Charles Parishes have but 28 percent of the state’s population but 69 percent of the cases and 73 percent of the deaths.

Order defiance charge may end political careers

The legal drama starts, and it might cost some political careers along the way without accomplishing much of anything.

Tuesday, Central’s Life Tabernacle Church minister Tony Spell received summons from the Republican Police Chief Roger Corcoran, with six charges of violating R.S. 29:724.

That law gives the governor emergency powers including the issuance of proclamations to limit gatherings, and lists penalties up to a $500 fine and six months imprisonment. Spell allegedly violated it when he preached to considerably more people on several occasions than allowed since Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards began issuing orders with limitations because of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic.

It didn’t change anything. That night, Spell conducted regularly-scheduled services before another crowd, which produced another set of summonses. And he’ll keep on going until he’s cuffed and jailed, which would be a public relations disaster for any politician involved.

Will Facebook cushion Advocate from its ills?

Will Facebook come to the “rescue” of Louisiana’s home of “there’s more to the story”™ and “reporting you can trust?”

Undoubtedly, snickers arose in newsrooms from Shreveport to Thibodaux and among news consumers from Vinton to Mound when reports surfaced that the source of these phrases to describe itself, the Baton Rouge Advocate, which includes allied operations in Ascension, Lafayette, and Orleans Parishes and several weekly newspapers – with competition from another daily newspaper only in Lafayette – sent out an e-mail plea to its subscriber base to “donate” money to it. This came in the wake of staff cuts and furloughs about a week after Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards’ first of three proclamations that progressively have brought a fair portion of the state’s economy to a standstill to combat encroachment of the Wuhan coronavirus.

Understand that, as the media landscape has changed with the advent of broadband delivery via Internet, cable, and satellite plus the social media revolution that in part cuts out information intermediaries, print newspapers have suffered tremendously. However, Advocate owner John Georges – a former gubernatorial and New Orleans mayoral candidate – since his 2013 purchase of the operation had pursued an aggressive expansion strategy that gobbled up or created outlets big and small, while smaller operations in particular have had difficulty in adapting to rising fixed costs and in getting a handle on increasingly important targeted digital advertising.

Congregants defying orders won't see penalties

They have been getting away with it. And they will continue to get away with it.

Central’s Life Tabernacle Church hasn’t missed much of a beat since Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards has issued a series of proclamation over the Wuhan coronavirus invasion into Louisiana. The orders began at limiting gatherings to 250, then went to 50, and the current iteration places the maximum number at ten. But the church continues tohold services and events that draw hundreds and even over a thousand participants.

Drawing national attention, pastor Tony Spell claims the virus won’t affect his congregants. He calls the matter a question of religious freedom, and suggests that the First Amendment’s free exercise and assembly clauses overrides any attempts at state government restrictions.