The Advocate column, Nov. 6, 2016

Medicaid expansion busting the budget
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/opinion/jeff_sadow/article_88accabe-a144-11e6-b821-fb59335fd852.html

Links:
http://www.theadvocate.com/acadiana/news/politics/article_359d4d78-9d50-11e6-87a5-23454d24593a.html
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea01.htm
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/business/article_8abe8ccc-9d4b-11e6-89f8-73414c67a113.html
http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2016/10/tax-study-group-seeks-to-ratify.html
https://www.statereforum.org/system/files/mdcdexpntnimpct_mrch13.pdf
https://www.statereforum.org/sites/default/files/la_mdcdexpntn_april_14-2.pdf

Boustany does best, but Kennedy still Senate favorite

While the first U.S. Senate debate for Louisiana’s open seat presented the chance for the major candidates to put themselves on the paths they believed best to make for winning coalitions, the second would show well they could progress given the constraints inherent to those choices. Last night the consequences of those choices became clear, leading on the whole between both debates a performance most convincing to voters.

Starting with the least effective, that only could be the one contestant who did not inflict himself upon the viewing audience at the first one, invited just to the second. David Duke showed himself a joke on multiple occasions. The Republican, who has lived most of his life off of other people’s donations, made some valid general remarks, concerning government’s propensity to accumulate power to favor certain interests, but some of the details showed he has no connection to reality, such as his insisting a cabal of Jewish bankers wield too much political power in the world.

A quarter of a century ago, when running for senator and governor and racking up significant numbers of votes, he stuck with the generalities and understandably fooled many into supporting him on those occasions. But with time, his history since then, and an environment that provides far fuller information on candidates today, he probably thought he had nothing to lose by taking off his mask to reveal the beliefs that expose his general unfitness for elective office.

Floundering Jones CD 4 candidacy helps Guillory

For now, a popular game among those interested in politics around northwest Louisiana is “Where’s Marshall?” – but an amusement that looks unlikely to last much longer.

Drive around the Shreveport area or watch television emanating from it and you’ll occasionally see the visage of Democrat candidate for the Fourth Congressional District lawyer Marshall Jones touting “experience” (even though he’s never held elective office as opposed to three of his Republican opponents) and that he believes in God and guns. But unless you congregate among those he thinks likely to vote for him, you can be forgiven for thinking he exists only as a media creation.

So while he may show up at the Martin Luther King forum or at a brewery with other candidates, you’ll never see him at candidate gatherings where he can get asked tough questions such as at forums at Bossier Parish Community College or for the South Bossier Citizens Assembly. Questions like whether he will vote for Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, or her proposals to scrap the Keystone XL pipeline and increase gun control, whether he supports the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, whether he will raise taxes to fulfill his desire to balance the budget, etc.

Events add more controversy to fall LA amendments

Matters have gotten interesting regarding two of the six constitutional amendments with which Louisiana voters must struggle next week.

One has generated controversy because its impact appears indeterminate. Amendment 3 would remove the deduction for federal taxes now enjoyed by corporations, but because of two statutory changes that go into effect only if the amendment passes, it also would eliminate the several brackets of income tax rates applied to corporations and collapse them into just a 6.5 percent tax, below the current highest category at 8 percent.

As experts point out, the federal income tax deduction artificially inflates rates, to some degree takes state tax policy out of its own hands (because federal tax changes happen independently), and does not guard against double taxation of equity investments. Optimal tax policy emphasizes simplicity, and the removal of the deduction plus the added-on flat rate accomplishes this.

LA Supreme Court wisely advances religious freedom

The Louisiana Supreme Court ruled correctly on a case pitting religious freedom against laws requiring reporting of a crime against minors, finding a way to permit attainment of both objections.

This issue involved the confession a female minor made to Rev. Jeff Bayhi in 2008, where she allegedly told him of abuse at the hands of a now-deceased male member of the congregation. The family had sued Bayhi and the Diocese of Baton Rouge, saying he should have alerted authorities. But canon law unambiguously states that for a priest to violate ministrations under the confessional seal, even if the penitent reveals the content of it, would lead to his excommunication.

The Court had ruled over two years ago that if the penitent voluntarily revealed the information then courts could compel the priest to testify, in an attempt to clarify ambiguity in statutes. The Children’s Code maintained that mandatory reporters, defined as to include clergy, had to report potential endangerment regardless of privilege, while the Code of Evidence made privileged communications under confession. The defendants brought the matter to the U.S. Supreme Court, which declined to hear the case.

The Advocate column, Oct. 30, 2016

Landry simply follows constitutional principles
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/opinion/jeff_sadow/article_359f19b8-9c61-11e6-9542-f742e16f8863.html

Links:
http://gov.la.gov/assets/ExecutiveOrders/JBE16-11.PDF
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/article_e132cfe2-9476-11e6-823e-6f5ad58d8a5a.html
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/article_73a73fa2-96f2-11e6-9c51-0f0c4035df18.html
http://www.legis.la.gov/legis/Law.aspx?d=206444

Duke fixation sends parties, candidates off message

One ignorant peon needlessly has managed to interject a lot of anxiety into Louisiana’s U.S. Senate contest, because those involved with it inflate his importance.

The candidate in question, Republican former state Rep. David Duke, got the executive directors of both of the state’s major political parties all bothered when the former Ku Klux Klan official polled just enough for inclusion in next week’s televised debate. Both the GOP’s Jason Doré and Democrat Stephen Handwerk wrung their hands over his earning a place at the dais. “[H]e absolutely should not be given any extra time from anyone,” complained Handwerk, and Doré moaned that “if I were a decision maker … I certainly wouldn’t have him as part of the debate.”

That a Democrat official should wish to censor debate should not surprise. Increasingly over the decades the political left has advocated limits on free speech, most recently most visibly in Louisiana by arguments that public facilities should not host speakers that could offend somebody’s sensibilities and nationally where the Democrat nominee for president Hillary Clinton argues that certain voices need limitation when making arguments about ideas and candidates.

LA early voting initial results favor Republicans

Varying by degree only in whether early voting has matured within the electorate, Republicans initially have received good news from the practice this election cycle in Louisiana.

Now in its eighth year in the state, the last round of statewide elections topped the one-fifth mark for proportion of vote that came prior to election day. After so much experience, to understand how early voting may signal the direction of an election, we must consider whether it has come to approximate final returns, or whether it remains a phenomenon unrepresentative of actual outcomes.

In any given election, the proportion of individuals with certain characteristics in the electorate that end up voting can be to the advantage or disadvantage of parties and candidates. A crude method to determine this begins with the concept of a normal vote, or one where turnout essentially matches the characteristics of the aggregate of registered voters.

LA Senate race reverts to form: advantage Kennedy

Maybe back to the future explains how the state of Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race seemingly has reverted to its position of over a month ago, as campaigns have adjusted to burgeoning interest in the contest to produce the same top two then as now.

Until the middle of September, polling had shown Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy leading the field with around a quarter of the vote, and then several points behind Democrat Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell. Then a couple of polls emerged that saw Kennedy falling back close to other main rivals Republican Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming, and Campbell retreat back to his main rival Democrat, former lieutenant governor candidate Caroline Fayard.

The theory went that Kennedy for Republicans and Campbell for Democrats served as placeholders for an electorate minimally engaged, with their familiarity translating to default answers in surveys for people in reality undecided. With the proportion of the undecided still remaining high, it could have been that as some respondents began paying attention they detached from the pair and declared themselves undecided, while others of the undecided broke disproportionately for the other candidates. At the time, Kennedy hardly had any advertisements out and Campbell found Fayard picking up key endorsements from the Landrieu clan. Thus, it could be that Kennedy could win back supporters once he made his campaign more visible and if Campbell could rally his more state-centered campaign to overcome the national party emphasis on Fayard he would regain his edge over her.

Good LA tax reform idea faces daunting odds

Louisiana’s task force instructed to produce fiscal reform has suggested, very wisely, the elimination of the inventory tax. Not only will that need other changes attached, but also a lot of luck to succeed.

At present, Louisiana is only one of a handful of states to tax inventories. Many kinds of goods for sale sitting around the Constitution deems taxable, which creates not only a generally undesirable burden on businesses as a whole, but also specifically creates winners and losers in that certain businesses would have huge liabilities while other kinds little, if any. As such, typically taxation experts frown upon the concept.

To level the playing field, Louisiana refunds to businesses these property taxes levied at the local level. This only compounds the horror of the tax, because it makes the amount paid by state taxpayers completely determined by local authorities in aggregate. It becomes a crazy subsidization scheme where local jurisdictions with a high number of business with a large volume of inventories can jack up rates to suck in money statewide.