LA makes wise call to work on programs, pass on grant

Today is the deadline for states to enter the third round of the federal government’s Race to the Top education grant program, this focused on early childhood learning. Louisiana, as it appears another dozen states will do (four because they did not qualify by accepting a specific kind of programmatic funds related to the oxymoronic Affordable Health Care Act), said it will defer. Despite some predicting that the state would have a good chance of success in winning up to $60 million, reasons for passing on it seem well-founded.

Over the past several years, funding has increased in the state for programs related to early childhood education, or that which occurs prior to kindergarten. But whether it has done much good, or as much as it should have, is itself a campaign issue in this fall’s elections for at least one prominent interest group that argues the system’s lack of coordination hurts the state, which ranks 14^th in expenditures among the states. It, as did the Commission on Streamlining Government in 2009, recommends reorganization of the ECL system focused on a single system with high early learning standards and accountability measures. RTT-ECL addresses in particular the latter goal.

Thus, the problem for the state not only was to get together an application in less than two months, but also to spell out how major changes would be made in the state’s delivery system to begin at the start of next year.

Most Bossier, Caddo election action in northern parts

With one exceptional matchup, residents in southern Caddo Parish and their counterparts in Bossier mostly can snooze through fall state and local elections, as the real action seems to be in points north in both parishes.

That exception concerns the Senate District 38 contest between incumbent state Sen. Sherri Smith Cheek and Mansfield Alderman Troy Terrell. This is not a contest Cheek should take lightly, as four years ago in a differently-drawn district she eked out a narrow win over a relatively under-financed and then-relatively unknown today’s House District 5 state Rep. Alan Seabaugh, and Terrell appears to be a better-quality candidate now than Seabaugh was then, who this time drew a challenger in the form of former appointed Shreveport City Council member Cynthia Norton Robertson, now calling herself a Republican.

Through his pastoral duties, being a minister, Terrell has engaged in impressive community service both in the area and the state.

Early voting points to large GOP down ballot LA gains

Early voting in Louisiana for the general election this Saturday has concluded, and has given some hints about what may lay ahead – which looks redder and redder.

Turnout is up 12 percent over the period four years ago, but that doesn’t indicate a massive increase in overall turnout to come in a few days. As voters have become more familiar with the “no-fault” brand of early voting, more take advantage of it. In fact, given a low-profile cakewalk governor’s race for Gov. Bobby Jindal’s incredibly likely reelection without going to a runoff, overall turnout likely will be less than last time. This favors challengers down the ballot, as those who oppose incumbents are easier to activate into voting while voters less likely to show tend to go along with known names.

Comparisons of different kinds of voters prove more helpful, although they are a bit imprecise in using raw numbers rather than percentage figures since category populations change slightly over time. But even with raw numbers, it should be clear that the ratio of black to white voters in 2011 tells a different story than in 2008. Looking at a large parish with registrations split almost evenly between the two races, in Caddo in 2008 only about 1.1 whites for every black voted early in a high-stimulus election for blacks and Democrats with now-Pres. Barack Obama’s electors on the ballot, while in 2011 the ratio is about 2.5 to 1. In Orleans, with a heavy black majority, this year it is about one-half to one, while in 2008 it was about 0.3 to 1. Statewide, the figures are then 1.7 to 1 and now 3.5 to 1. With over twice as many whites relative to blacks voting early, this signals the black share of the electorate will be smaller than usual and favors Republicans and non-black candidates in the general election.

In partisan terms, while there has been a steady erosion of Democrats redounding to Republicans and no-party registrants over the past four years, the raw numbers show such dramatic changes that it’s hard not to conclude total turnout will end up favoring Republican candidates. While the ratio of Democrat-to-Republican early voter in 2008 was about 2:1, this year it has dropped to less than 1.5:1. As with race, a paucity of competitive high-profile Democrats for statewide offices looks likely to fail to excite their party’s voters, favoring Republican candidates.

The GOP entered this election cycle with enthusiasm borne of increasing the number of offices they held in the state at both the national and state levels, through elections and switches, and their continuing surge in registrations relative to Democrats. These early voting numbers show the optimism is warranted, and perhaps even understated. That means, besides keeping all seven statewide executive offices in the fold (obviously without the Democrats putting up a quality candidate for any of them), gains in the Legislature and in local contests may exceed what Republicans had envisioned.

Jindal budget reducing real, but not as big as claimed

Although apparently headed for an easy reelection, whether Gov. Bobby Jindal has, as his campaign claims, significantly has cut spending in Louisiana over his first term has come into dispute. When looking at the number in the most objective way, it seems that both Jindal and his critics on this issue are correct.

The Jindal campaign, at the simplest level, asserts that he lopped off around $9 billion from the last budget of his predecessor to his most recent. While factually correct, it assumes that the reduction came from conscious budget-cutting decisions made by Jindal when, in fact, not all of it came in a discretionary sense.

First and of course, note that the governor does not made spending decisions in isolation. He may have the majority of input, in his submission of the budget, his shaping it through the threatened and actual use of vetoes, and in implementation decisions that require no legislative oversight, yet the Legislature does pass budget bills and does exert oversight in many implementation decisions. Thus, any claimed reductions in spending in the main a governor can claim attribution for, but he cannot take entire credit.

Second, a great deal of operating expenses of state government get paid for by the federal government – in the most recently reported fiscal year, over a third. And in Louisiana’s case, between the start and end of Jindal’s term, a fair chunk of that almost uniquely was not discretionary – recovery funds relating to the hurricane disasters of 2005. These mainly constituted one-time expenditures for things normally not part of governance in the state and so existed invariantly relative to policy decisions made by policy-makers.

Third, of the remaining federal funds allocated, the governor’s spending decisions only partially influence them. For example, spending fewer state dollars on Medicaid means fewer matching federal dollars to spend, but those funds come in regardless. So, a governor does not control entirely this kind of spending; the only way that happens is in decisions whether to participate in federal programs, such as Jindal’s decision not to participate in, and thereby got no federal funds for, one that would pay more unemployment relief to more recipients.

Finally, the real area of policy-making discretion comes from general fund expenditures, since they are unencumbered in any way. By contrast, dedications and self-generated revenues have statutory or constitutional requirements that forcibly spend. The only other area of discretion in spending comes from the ability to dip into funds separate from the general fund (the so-called “one-time” money), to get at surplus monies produced by dedications and fees.

Parsing out these kinds of factors, the claim about reduced state spending may be fairly evaluated. A review of the state budget report for the fiscal year (2008) budgeted prior to Jindal’s assumption of the office and the latest (2012) provides this information. Comparing general fund totals, Jindal had about a half a billion fewer dollars to work with, and with the self-generated and dedicated funds almost the same amount, just a little less. He also had nearly $8 billion fewer coming from the federal government. However, considering that this difference was mostly recovery money, the net result actually was, adjusted for all of these things, a small net decline.

So Jindal did cut the budget in policy-related ways, but not nearly as dramatically as he might advertise. One could argue that the nature of declining revenues forced him into it, or that if he really made this a priority he could try to get through the Legislature bills to reduce the forced dedicated spending. As it is, his incremental reductions fit his governing style as someone not given to sudden, dramatic changes but who slowly but surely tinkers at the margins to create a more efficient government that spends less and more wisely.

Merger study may promote efficiency over politics

Local citizen leaders from Shreveport have floated the old idea to merge my institution, Louisiana State University Shreveport, with Louisiana Tech and Louisiana State University Medical Center Shreveport. While there are as many political reasons to do this as educative ones, if done for the latter something like it could improve educational efficiency in the state.

The idea isn’t new, and its history shows the political perils. During the term of the previous LSUS chancellor in the first part of the 1990s, he brought up the idea or merging us and Tech, which essentially got him run out of his job and town. A map reveals much of the logic behind his idea: LSUMCS is just miles from LSUS, which then is 70 miles west of Tech in Ruston, which is just five miles east of Grambling State University in Grambling and 30 miles west of the University of Louisiana – Monroe in Monroe. Also, 65 miles to the southeast is Northwestern State University in Natchitoches. Why scatter all these centers of higher education across an area of population of just a half million people?

Tech seemed the likeliest candidate for a merger.

Polling shows campaigns to feature even more attacking

New polling information about the only two substantive contests for statewide office up for grabs this fall shows a little clarity emerging on one but the other as murky as ever, and points to campaigning up until the Oct. 22 election becoming even less tied to issues and more to personality.

A poll conducted for WWL-TV in New Orleans for lieutenant governor showed the current occupant Jay Dardenne leading his opponent Plaquemines Parish Pres. Billy Nungesser 40-27 percent, and current House Speaker Jim Tucker up on incumbent Sec. of State Tom Schedler for that office. The margin of error computed for these races, both involving only Republicans, is four percent.

Ordinarily, that would tell us that while the Secretary of State matchup is close enough not to declare a definite leader, Dardenne’s lead is significant.

Official uses misdirection in downplaying LA pension reform

If we know nothing else about government, we know that bureaucrats always stump for more resources associated with their agencies . This explains several disingenuous remarks made by Louisiana State Retirement Systems Director Cindy Rougeou to members of the press regarding reform efforts that would downsize the power and resources of state pension funds.

They came as part of her stumping for Amendment 2 that voters will face in less than two weeks, which would mandate some portion of forecast budget surpluses to pay down the unfunded accrued liability of the four state retirement funds, which hold and manage money from defined benefit pensions in which most state employees participate. While she correctly voiced support for that measure, she proceeded then to try to explain away the responsibility that policy-makers and retirement officials had in creating the over $18 billion hole that must be wiped away according to the Constitution by 2029, in the process trying to cast doubt on proposals to assist in that made by the interest group Blueprint Louisiana. A list of these erroneous assertions made by her and the real facts concerning them is instructive.

Assertion: “The problem is the debt, not the benefit being earned.” This she argued because the state did not pay enough into the system in the past to make sure projected payouts would be covered.

Fact: The state contributions did not cover projected costs because benefits were too generous in the first place.

Report shows LA state policy-makers excelled on economy

Welcome music to the ears of Gov. Bobby Jindal and legislators running for reelection comes from a group reporting that Louisiana has fared recently better economically than about two-thirds of the states. But it’s important to understand the relationship between policy and results to assess validly the credit policy-makers may take for this.

The Federal Funds Information for States noted that while Louisiana was slightly below the national average in growth of personal income over the previous year, it ranked 10^th in employment growth, 11^th in population growth, and tied for the 13^th-lowest unemployment rate. All in all, this ranked it 15^th overall among the states for the past year.

Just in time for these elected officials to take credit, it reflects most on Jindal as by far he has the most influence on state economic policy as a single individual, even though collectively the Legislature has a lot to say about that as well.

Jindal endorsement leaves opening for his anti-tax critics

Through his nearly four years as governor, Bobby Jindal has attracted charges from a distinct but vociferous minority claiming he says one thing and does another. But now given a Hobson’s policy choice, Jindal has presented to these heretofore spurious opponents at least a small piece of ammunition that for the first time supports their assertion.

To date, the examples they have used lack validity. They complain about the ethics agenda that was largely Jindal’s creation that actually depoliticized and improved the process, that Jindal has not really reduced the size of government when the number of employees funded by state revenues continues to decrease and savings are being wrung through increased efficiencies in areas such as indigent health care, and that Jindal, who has argued consistently the opposite, supports “tax increases” yet cite increases in fees-for-service, including tuition, as obviously inapplicable examples. But, hold the phone on that last point, as, buffeted by political reality, Jindal has given them an opening with the first legitimate example validating their claim.

Asked about Amendment 1 on the Oct. 22 ballot, Jindal expressed support for it.

Leftist crackup preparing to plague NO misses diagnosis

The nervous breakdown of the political left has come to Louisiana, courtesy of a planned copycat march/sit-in/camp out/exercise in futility in New Orleans along the lines of the “Occupy Wall Street” mob.

Like its point of origin, whose members have set up shop around the environs of the financial center of the world in New York, this “Occupy New Orleans” bunch appears to be just as disoriented, clueless, and anti-intellectual as the original and its other knockoffs. Let’s hope that this screed of self-indulgence doesn’t turn as racist and destructive of other peoples’ livelihood as some of the others.

One question is how long the voluntarily unemployed, the lazy, and the aging hippies that typically comprise these groups can last if they get this thing in the Central Business District started and keep it going. If they can stand ditching the products of the capitalist system, such as their laptops, digital recorders, cell phones, and the like and actually live in hovels, where will these spoiled children of affluence, if not from their parents, get money to keep it up? In New York, professional trendy progressive groups are donating and collecting money on behalf of the juvenilia, as are labor unions through in-kind infrastructural aid such as organizers and supplying their members as reinforcements. Will similar kind of aid come to the New Orleans rabble?

Another is whether it will have any policy impact, even the most miniscule. In this version, it plans to camp basically across the street from the Federal Reserve Bank branch in New Orleans, one of the branches of the Atlanta District in order to protest ever-chimerical “corporate greed.” Just how situating this in a relative financial backwater compared to the entire world of finance will achieve their ill-defined, nebulous goals no doubt escapes not just anybody who can rub two brain cells together, but also the protesters themselves.

Workers in downtown New Orleans – actual contributors to and producers of benefits society enjoys, unlike the extended summer breakers scheduled to encamp in Lafayette Square – probably for the most part will ignore the spectacle, although some might get a kick out of the roadshow, like when the circus comes through town. In fact, they should see them as an objects pity, due to the self-deceived failing to have the knowledge, intelligence, or wisdom to understand the biggest impediment to however they define “economic justice” is not a system that maximizes the opportunity to contribute to the well-being of all who put forth effort, but is elites in Washington who use government to intervene inappropriately in that system while spouting the same platitudes issued forth by these skulls full of mush ready to descend on New Orleans like locusts.