Postponed election likely negatively impacts Carmouche

Sec. of State Jay Dardenne’s recommendation that Gov. Bobby Jindal reschedule congressional primary elections to Oct. 4 changes dynamics in contests, one in a major way, and carries with it a hint of irony as well.

Dardenne maintains a four-week delay is necessary to ensure all the infrastructure for the elections assuredly will be in place. It also helps out those candidates that otherwise might have been scrambling for quick fundraising had these been postponed only a week or two, as I noted recently. Four weeks buys a couple of weeks worth of begging for money, and then allocated in the last couple of weeks instead of having no chance to raise funds for a last-week blitz that a short delay would have turned into two or three weeks.

Still, candidates lagging their fields do get helped by this, as they have nowhere to go but up with an extra 28 days. But what truly will be interesting is that the chain reaction puts party runoffs on national election day Nov. 4 if there are any (if not, the general election occurs in those contests) and then on Dec. 6 would be the general election, over a month behind the rest of the country.

This will have a dramatic impact on one House contest. The Fourth District’s Republican nomination will not be settled on Oct. 4 so there will be a runoff on Nov. 4. This is to the major disadvantage of any Democrat running, although it is highly likely that their nomination will be won by next month by former Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche. His problem is that, in the conservative district where he has been somewhat unconvincingly been trying to place himself as a moderate, he will need strong black turnout to overcome whichever genuine conservative emerges as the GOP nominee. He would have a decent chance at that, were the general election on Nov. 4 with Sen. Barack Obama heading the Democrat ticket for president.

But on Dec. 6, this contest will be only one of two in the country (the Second District being the other as no Democrat will win the nomination outright, but whoever does will be extremely likely to win the seat on this day). There will be no black candidate topping the ticket to draw black votes to the polls on behalf of Carmouche. Worse for him, if Obama goes down to defeat the month prior, the palpable disappointment will depress black turnout even further. This will make his trying to win in this kind of district more difficult.

There’s some irony to the postponement, as one of the major reasons why the blanket primary was abandoned for federal elections in Louisiana was legal restrictions forced contests to be decided after the rest of the country voted. Here, the first federal elections after changing the law, the same is exceptionally likely to happen in two cases.

Gustav handling boosts Jindal but Palin still out front

Undoubtedly Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal acquitted himself well in his handling of the Hurricane Gustav crisis which led to few deaths, far fewer and with much less destruction than with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. He had help – New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin seemed to have learned lessons from his inadequate response in 2005, other local officials around the southern part of the state performed well, and Orleans-area levees appeared to be in better shape – and a little luck – Gustav was a little weaker and struck more of a glancing blow than Katrina – but management of a crisis always starts at the top so the major credit goes to Jindal.

For the moment, it strengthened his national political stature and boosted his pecking order in the Republican Party. But make no mistake, as I demonstrated last week, Jindal cannot rise any higher than second as long as the party’s vice presidential nominee Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin does not self-destruct. If she wants to pursue a presidential nomination in 2012 (if she and presidential nominee Sen. John McCain fail this year or they succeed and he wants to stay for just a term) or 2016, it’s hers to lose.

So far, in her mere days in the national spotlight, Palin is reinvigorating the party and promising to bring it back to its conservative roots which were responsible for the party’s electoral and the country’s policy successes. Realistically, her impact on people’s voting decisions will not be large but it could matter in a close race. But if on her own, running for the nomination to the office, so far the returns are impressive. Jindal, for all his skills and now considering her added exposure, will not be able to compete effectively against her.

But of more immediate concern is the impact Jindal made in Louisiana with his crisis-management skills. They will serve to smooth bumps in the road of his own doing, his dithering during the last regular session over coming on board a realistic individual income tax cut and over shooting down with a near-last-minute veto an absurdly gratuitous full-time pay raise for part-time legislators. Jindal may have feared future reactions from legislators by hanging out so many of them to dry by putting them on record with this toxic vote, but there’s no political ill that popularity can’t cure. If as a result of this episode Jindal finds his public approval at the level it was before the regular session began, he will have mooted their damaging effects.

Conservatives often do not govern as effectively as they could, precisely because they see government as a last resort that otherwise intrudes upon liberty. (Contrast this to the liberal conception of government as a desirable change agent to be used as the lead plow horse to remake society and people in the way they deem best.) If there’s one thing Jindal has shown in his several months in office, regardless of political missteps, is that he does know administration and can provide leadership. This crisis provided an (unwanted) opportunity to put it on display.

Primary elections postponing helps some, hurts others

Did part of Sec. of State Jay Dardenne’s decision to recommend to Gov. Bobby Jindal (who took this advice of) postponing the weekend’s elections come out of concern that some candidates might be differentially affected by the impact of Hurricane Gustav, as I mused recently? If so, he’s not telling but that so quickly it was declared that conditions, even in places that only got a lot of rain, would be too disruptive to hold it on time was surprising.

Regardless, dynamics will be affected in two contests. Incumbent Rep. Rodney Alexander will not be affected by any delays as he will mop up any opposition whenever an election is held and incumbent Rep. Steve Scalise will do the same to whoever is opponent may be. Nor will Democrat Paul Carmouche running really be affected in the Fourth District as he is expected to win outright despite date changes. Contests that could be affected include the Republican side for that district and the Second District Democrat contest.

The chief factors that could be altered are those of momentum and money. Some candidates who may have been doing well earlier may find they were beginning to slide as time went by, so they will be unhappy at this delay, while others not making much progress will be given extra time to rectify that. Others built spending strategies based around the date; for example, a heavy ad blitz with big expenditures right before the election may have been believed to pay off with a runoff spot and momentum where more money could then be raised. But without such a reward, these campaigns now will be punished as, unless their candidates are wealthy, their coffers will be low without much ability to get ad time next week (or even the week after, as Dardenne has hinted there could be a two week or even more delay).

In the Second, the delay helps incumbent Rep. Bill Jefferson since his resources depends the least upon others. He can sink more personal wealth and use the advantages of his office during the extended period. Others will scramble to find money in a challenging environment. It also gives new life to slow-developing candidacies like those of Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee and state Rep. Cedric Richmond who appear to have been languishing, providing overtime for them to try to turn things around.

In the Fourth, Bossier City attorney Jeff Thompson is the most adversely affected. The latest comer into the race with the fewest resources including his own, he was starting to get momentum on his side that may be interrupted by a money crunch, a period where the two candidates who largely self-financed their campaigns Minden physician John Fleming and Shreveport executive Chris Gorman can more easily adapt. Indications were Fleming and Thompson were headed to the runoff but that could change as a result of this interruption.

Whether postponement occurred, the storm was going to make an impression on these races. Whether this decision will significantly affect them remains to be seen.

Landrieu, Blanco revise history as result of latest storm

Politics took a welcome and needed backseat to performance as Louisiana dealt with Hurricane Gustav. But, unfortunately, only for a short time as the imperatives of historical revisionism got some Democrat females to talking.

Perhaps former Gov. Kathleen Blanco can be forgiven for asserting that the impressive display of implementation put on by the Gov. Bobby Jindal Administration was in part built on changes in emergency response started during her term. The muted credit-grabbing by current officials would have been unlikely to include her and she continues to seek rehabilitation for a reputation that, honestly and regrettably, she deserves for her mishandling of the Hurricane Katrina episode in 2005.

That is so because her reminding neglected to mention anything about “Hurricane Pam” in 2004. Few remember that because it didn’t exist; it was an exercise conducted by governments coordinated by the federal government during Blanco’s first year in office that history subsequently showed eerily paralleled Katrina. While it focused more on the aftermath of a storm, the associated press release also noted some things to be done in anticipation of such a storm with a quote from the Blanco Administration that “[o]ver the next 60 days, we will polish the action plans developed during the Hurricane Pam exercise. We have also determined where to focus our efforts in the future.” If any of this ever was done the next year, it seemed never to have been used or was irrelevant.

A few months later, real-life Hurricane Ivan followed and, while it missed Louisiana, it again could have been a useful test run. Certainly it’s good that Blanco learned from Katrina and set the stage for future administrations to profit from her experiences. But while Jindal seemed to do that, the inconvenient truth is that Blanco (and others) did not learn from the exercise or other prior opportnities given her response to events a little more than a year later, to the detriment of the state.

But it is difficult to forgive Sen. Mary Landrieu’s disingenuous remarks that, aware that work on the levee system in the greater New Orleans area was incomplete, this work should have been commenced three decades ago to have it completely ready by now. Such a remark implies either Landrieu doesn’t know, or refuses to admit, that work was to have started on comprehensive flood control in 1977 – only to be shot down by environmentalists that today often ally with her which delayed the project for years and produced some missing some potentially crucial elements to an overall response.

Regardless, Landrieu has had 12 years in office to have advocated getting things going in this regard. But, prior to 2005, not only did she seem disinterested in the whole issue, she actually worked against it in order to fund pork and boondoggles.

More should have done more expeditiously, and many past and current elected officials share blame. But for Landrieu to lecture others after having been one of these slackers shows just how much integrity she is willing to sacrifice in order to win reelection this fall.

Gustav may alter LA 2nd District election dynamics

As this posting gets published, Hurricane Gustav is making landfall south of Houma, meaning high winds will come to its east and a drenching along a path to the northwest. Its track seems to indicate it will hit minimally populated, presumably evacuated areas. But wind and possible tornadoes also take their toll especially east in the Second Congressional District. How will this unfortunate scenario impact elections coming up in five days?

Its direct path appears to avoid any place with a primary election, required only for federal offices. But the 2nd District does have its high profile Democrat primary where embattled Rep. Bill Jefferson tries to hang onto office, which at this moment almost is totally devoid of people (or at least of registered voters). Realistically and optimistically, mandatory evacuation orders won’t be lifted until Tuesday, then people will start flowing back, and how many will have returned and have interest in getting to the polls on Saturday is another matter, especially if it turns out some cleanup is involved.

Had things turned out differently, this might be a moot point. Hitting the district more squarely and perhaps a couple of days later probably would have postponed the election, not only because of the general chaos but also as Baton Rouge likely would have borne more of the brunt and this would have made election administration there more difficult. As it is, it would appear an election can occur largely unimpeded.

As a result, certain candidates may be advantaged and disadvantaged. With West Bank levees perhaps the weakest and being the closest to the eye wall, the Jefferson Parish part of the district might see the most potential for damage that would distract from voting, to the presumed detriment of the single Jefferson Parish candidate in the contest parish Councilman Byron Lee. By contrast, with a New Orleans East district already largely depopulated, state Rep. Cedric Richmond will lose proportionally fewer voters from his base.

The only non-black candidate in the race, former media reporter Helena Moreno, might also accrue and electoral advantage as it is believed she will do best among white voters (Democrat and independents are allowed to vote in this primary). While they are in the minority in the district, if she corrals a large plurality of them while the black vote gets fragmented among all other candidates, this should push her into the runoff. Likely of better socio-economic status generally than black voters, these whites may be able to get onto their feet faster after all of this and be in a better position to get to the polls on Saturday.

Intriguingly, perhaps the biggest beneficiary of all this may be Jefferson. With his support the most geographically broad-based and perhaps least popular in Jefferson Parish (where he has trailed in every contested election compared to Orleans except once), his partisans’ lives (maybe excepting Moreno’s) as a whole may be the least affected by the storm and can get more easily to the polls. Former New Orleans councilor Troy Carter’s chances also may be affected less, given he has run before and may have a more solid campaign structure in place than other challengers.

However, it would be ironic if fate in the form of this hurricane twists the political dynamics in such a way that it assists the damaged candidacy of Jefferson, after he appears to have done so much on his own to remove himself from office.

Did Jindal's past shape GOP VP pick, his political future?

If your name is Gov. Bobby Jindal and if you are politically ambitious, there’s good news and bad news with the pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the running mate of Sen. John McCain for the presidency for the Republicans in 2008. And it’s a pick Jindal perhaps inspired McCain to make.

The bad news is that should McCain win, Jindal’s not likely to get a presidential nod from the party for a long time. Palin is only seven years older than Jindal and would become the prohibitive frontrunner to succeed McCain as long as she serves without controversy as vice president. Like Jindal, she is seen as a conservative reformer, family (wo)man, and also would be an atypical nominee (i.e. not white and/or male) that could pique interest and votes for the GOP. With at least four years on the national stage, if she wants it she would be difficult to stop.

Should McCain lose, Palin still provides additional competition for Jindal. Even though the record of defeated vice presidential candidates then assuming the presidency is almost exclusively bad – only Franklin Roosevelt 12 years after his second-fiddle bid in 1920 came back to win the presidency and it took the Depression to do it – in the past several decades almost every single vice presidential pick who was in current office when tapped later ended up making a run for the presidency, regardless of whether that ticket won. At the very least she almost is a sure thing to compete in the future provided she does not self-destruct politically, thereby reducing Jindal’s chances of success.

The good news for Jindal is, if willing, his chances have increased to be on the national ticket in four or eight years. Palin will not try the second slot again so if Jindal wins the nomination despite her momentum, he’s there on it. But if he tries and loses to Palin, unless there is a lot of acrimony in the campaign (which seems unlikely given the combination of their personalities) he would create an outstanding choice to balance the ticket with her. McCain’s choosing Palin has markedly improved his status on this account.

One wonders, in fact, whether Jindal himself inspired McCain to select her – perhaps not in a way he would have desired. Palin and Jindal do have much alike and perhaps McCain at some point vacillated between the two. But what might have gotten Palin the nod (who, if you count Jindal’s congressional experience, has less national experience although she started serving as governor of Alaska in 2007 and was mayor of Wasilla prior to that) was her reformist zeal stayed truly close to conservative principles. When the time came for Jindal to support individual income tax decreases and to oppose self-serving legislative pay increases, he hesitated and unnecessarily made himself look like a proponent of established interests and big government. By contrast, Palin never showed loyalty to big government and five years ago broke with the state’s GOP over ethics issues (although she generally has been a tax-cutter as a politician, she does occasionally go off in a populist direction such as floating a windfall tax idea on oil companies).

Or, to be more blunt, did Jindal blow it with McCain when their actions showed her to be more the conservative reformer, even a “maverick” just as McCain styles himself? Had Jindal stumped immediately for the tax cut and impressively told the Legislature no huge pay increase was coming (although that would have made it a much lower-profile issue) maybe McCain, if he was looking for someone fitting this mold, would have picked him instead?

Only McCain and a different history could answer this, and only Jindal will know whether he will think about this in years to come, pondering whether some political misjudgments on his part cost him the opportunity to send his political trajectory higher than he may end up ever achieving.

Tempest in teapot aggravated by ill-suited function

To comprehend why controversy has emerged concerning the LSU Board of Supervisors over its officer elections requires understanding the very controversial function the Board was given long ago. (Technically the Board ultimately oversees me and at times like these often with chagrin as not all of its members or the system as a whole will end up agreeing with me on issues.)

In its upcoming election to be chairman-elect, one candidate being backed for months by many board members is being challenged by another who apparently is favored by the Gov. Bobby Jindal Administration. Governors appoint these members and neither member was appointed by Jindal.

This is claimed by the long-time candidate to be divisive and one of his supporters claims the entry of the other candidate and the lobbying, which he claims without verification included threats not to reappoint a member who did not vote the Administration’s way, will wreck the Board with bitterness. Further, the candidate feeling aggrieved by competition sees this as an undue interference by an administration into the workings of the Board.

Three things immediately are worth noting about these claims. First, competition for an office is a healthy thing that provides opportunities for evaluation of different policies that in all likelihood strengthens the quality of the victorious program. By nature this will produce division, but it will create better policy than if consensus is allowed to play too prominent of a rule in the process. Successions that are too orderly too often have a way of perpetuating rigidity and inflexibility.

Second, a governor and/or his staff have a right to lobby for whoever they please. If they believe one candidate as opposed to another will produce policy that better helps the state, not only should they express that preference, they would be derelict in their duty not to.

Third, the Board is independent of the governor’s office and the only way its members lose that is to surrender it themselves. Even if an administration in order to get its way threatened recalcitrant members with not reappointing them to the Board, one must question the motives of Board members for their service if reappointment is seen as such a prize. The first priority of any board member should be to the organization and who it represents, the people of Louisiana in this case. They are there first and foremost to serve, and you best serve by making the best decisions possible without letting an extraneous consideration such as reappointment get in the way. One must wonder if a member so highly values reappointment to allow it to exert leverage over his decisions that perhaps he is there for the wrong reasons – not so much to serve but to enjoy power and privilege that comes with board membership.

But considering more deeply this issue discovers a larger implication. The complaining board members believe the policy dispute leading to rival candidacies comes from questions about governance of the health care portfolio for the LSU system (which actually takes up more resources than its educative function). Louisiana famously is the only state in the union which primarily runs its indigent care system through a series of state-owned hospitals, and for over a decade these have been run by the LSU system.

Regardless of the merits of the differing views of governance issues, if this assertion is true the fact remains that this would not be an issue at all if LSU did not have this (for an educational systme) bizarre function. As health care redesign in the state continues, hopefully the “charity” system will be dismantled, or at the very least its administration transferred away from a university system so that it can concentrate on its core mission of education.

To some extent the dispute is a tempest in a teapot, encouraged more internally than externally. At the same time, it’s a dispute that really need not exist were the LSU System not saddled with providing a service only tenuously connected with its genuine purpose. Perhaps some change on this account will occur as a result of this election.

Landrieu, Melancon, Morial: vapidity reigns over them

Sometimes one must shake his head with incredulity at the divergence between the real world and what Democrat politicians claim things actually are. Some Louisiana political figures gave us excellent examples concerning the unreal world imagined by Democrats at their national convention.

First up was former New Orleans mayor, now head of the National Urban League, Marc Morial. He opined that comments about how the party’s almost presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama draw unfair criticism about him being too inexperienced to run the federal government, observing that relatively recent presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and current Pres. George W. Bush had no national political experience, so why should Obama with his eight years in the Illinois legislature and four in the Senate be considered so unseasoned, he argued.

One may forgive Morial the obvious denseness of this remark, as it was Morial the executive who more than any New Orleans mayor drove the city into the ground and whose relatives associates not yet convicted remain under criminal investigation while he fights a lawsuit accusing him of corrupt practices. His mentioned chief executives actually ran a government and each accomplished significant things during their six to 12 years in office. Obama has no such experience and has not one significant legislative accomplishment in any office. Even his putative Republican opponent Sen. John McCain can claim over two decades in the Senate with some significant (if not always the wisest) policy accomplishments and committee leadership, as well as executive experience in the military. Morial must never embark upon a career as a fruit salesman because he clearly doesn’t know the difference between apples and oranges.

But there’s more from this buffoon. He then chides the media for not bringing up this point (which no doubt they avoid to prevent themselves from looking stupid) and even implies the media is in some sense biased against Obama because they don’t “bring a little perspective” to the charge. If he believes this, he truly lives in a fantasy world as media perceived and displayed favoritism for Obama in the campaign has been documented time and time again.

Then almost on cue we have confirmation of, if not Obama favoritism at least sympathy towards Democrats in general or perhaps more specifically Sen. Mary Landrieu, when the New Orleans Times-Picayune’s national political reporter Bruce Alpert ineptly relays her remarks at the convention. She spoke in part about her idea with first nine, now 15, other senators to deal with dwindling energy supplies for the U.S.

Inexpertly, Alpert describes the plan as “The measure combines increased domestic drilling with more conservation and development of alternative fuels and cars powered by nongasoline products.” But this is like handing a person who knows nothing about oranges the unpeeled fruit and inviting him to bite into it by describing how the inside tastes. Alpert makes no mention that the plan only marginally increases the amount of potential drilling that could be done while imposing $84 billion in new taxes that will get passed through to consumers. To have reported it this way, either Alpert didn’t know what he was writing about or he’s in the tank for Landrieu.

Yet as ridiculous as Morial sounded, Landrieu actually does him worse when she insisted “I am not here to be a champion of the oil industry” on the basis of the plan. As it is, the organization of petroleum producers the American Petroleum Institute weeks ago released a blistering critique of the proposal that shows that if anything they consider Landrieu and her supportive colleagues are opponents of them on the issue. That she tries while engaged in a difficult reelection battle to pander to voters back in the state (a fair number in the energy industry) in this fashion defines chutzpah.

Finally, a minor case of muddled thinking infected Rep. Charlie Melancon, who offered his musings on why Obama looks like he will be pummeled by the Louisiana electorate. They included the official liberal Democrat narrative being circulated to explain an eventual Obama defeat (“racism”) and the inexperience issue, but he only obliquely stumbled onto the sole real reason, the Louisiana electorate being more conservative.

Let’s make it a little more basic and simple for Melancon since he seems to need the help. Obama was the most liberal senator in 2007 according to National Journal ratings. His new running mate Sen. Joe Biden was the third most liberal. This means there are profound policy disagreements between the majority of Louisianans and this ticket and it therefore has absolutely no chance of winning the state. Issue preferences do matter.

The convention is only halfway over, providing more opportunities for Louisiana Democrats to top these examples of absolute vapidity.

Local govts make last desperate effort to milk consumers

One reliable way to find out political motives – especially when somebody is claiming they are doing something for reasons other than this – is to follow the money. And when money is involved, you can be sure the citizenry is getting the short end of a deal.

This basic principle explains why the Louisiana Municipal Association and the Police Jury Association of Louisiana are suing to try to prevent changes in how cable provision is achieved in the state. The new law allows any operator to acquire a statewide cable franchise valid anywhere in the state, while apportioning out monies received from the franchisee to continue to go to the local area at the same 5 percent maximum rate of the deal.

What’s to object about this: local governments still can get the same maximum of the revenue? And current providers, almost all cable companies, don’t have any real objection to the deal. What’s got the local governments upset is that they no longer will be able to restrict entry into their marketplaces and use that leverage to pass through stealth fees to consumers.

The past law did not mandate local governments in awarding a franchise to accept offers as good or even better than what an existing franchisee had. Further, by deliberately limiting competition, it could set things up so the sole franchiser could claim certain costs that then could be levied on behalf of the government and shoot these right into its coffers, shaped around market-interfering requirements imposed. Now these governments have no leverage to force these things out of a single franchisee and consumers and cannot block competition that will cause sweetheart revenue pass-throughs courtesy of a monopoly provider to disappear.

It’s not about contractual fidelity as these organizations claim. It’s really all about an obscured means for local governments to milk money out of its citizenry that uses these services. Hopefully the judiciary will see through this and/or decide, since the state ultimately controls all actions of local governments, that shifting contracts to the state level is consistent with the jurisprudence defining state and local government relations. For which consumers in Louisiana would be grateful.

Jefferson almost certainly upcoming primary loser

Quite a salient question is whether Rep. Bill Jefferson on Sep. 6 will make the Democrat primary runoff for his current position. Things would get quite interesting if he did, but chances are that he won’t despite his opinion to the contrary.

Certainly a poll commissioned by opponent Troy Carter’s campaign, on top of a previous poll that showed Jefferson battling with other at the 12 percent mark, casts doubt on Jefferson’s ability to continue into another term. In it, Jefferson’s not even cruising near the top; it says he languishes in the single digits of support. At the same time, it bears recalling that Jefferson was considered embattled in his last election as rumored indictments swirled around him yet pulled out the win.

But conditions have changed in two years. Rumor has turned into fact, along with accompanying indictments of other politically-connected Jefferson family members. His caused the stripping of any positions of influence from him within Congress. As important although not generally recognized as such, the change from the blanket primary to closed primaries also will not work to his advantage.

Before Hurricane Katrina, with the winner of the district by the numbers almost certainly having to be a black Democrat, Orleans parish political organizations in the black community were the main jousters in this competition. Leading the Progressive Democrats, Jefferson could at worst compete with anybody easily for this office and other organizations knew it and did not seriously compete for it.

But the storm weakened all of these organizations and Jefferson’s suffered an additional blow with his legal troubles. However, with the advent of the closed primary, other organizations for this office were able to re-coup (yes, bad pun for those of you who know something about New Orleans black democrat politics) some of their strength because their powers became more concentrated. That is, relative now to a primary where Republicans cannot compete, these organizations no longer have to account for the vagaries of GOP voters in an election, and also a fair chunk of the white vote has disappeared as well, leading to the same favorable outcome for these groups.

But the Progressive Democrats will have a much harder time controlling parts of the electorate because of the blows to Jefferson’s reputation. That much was clear when, gunning for the state Senate, his daughter former state Rep. Jalila Jefferson-Bullock got trounced by one of her less-prominent colleagues, now state Sen. Cheryl Gray.

The impact of the closed primary also has an effect separate from interaction with changes in relative power of political groups as it increases the non-black proportion of the electorate. Under the blanket primary system, blacks would have had about 62 percent of the electorate; under the closed primary system they have 55.7 percent of it.

This consideration redounds to the advantage of former reporter Helena Moreno, who is the only non-black candidate in the contest, and thereby to the disadvantage of Jefferson. Even if she picked up only half of this vote, it puts her in an excellent position for the runoff.

The primary form actually helps Jefferson in that the Jefferson Parish proportion of the population drops about five percent to just over a quarter, reducing the advantage of any Jefferson-based candidate. But there is one in the contest, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, backed by perhaps the leading parish figure Sheriff Newell Normand, creating another threat to muscle Jefferson out of a runoff.

Other candidates could pose a threat. State Rep. Cedric Richmond has picked up key endorsements from politicians and the area’s Alliance for Good Government. New Orleans City Councilman James Carter recently got elected and has a fresh electoral base on which to draw. Former councilor Troy Carter ran in 2006 and appears by polling to have the broadest appeal. (Former New Orleans official Kenya Smith appears to have no real chance to make the runoff.)

But these others also have their warts, which is why Jefferson has reason for optimism. Richmond’s political base remains decimated from the storm and he faces censure over professional conduct. James Carter may suffer backlash seeking higher office less than two years after winning his current one. Troy Carter appears to be the most popular second choice but whether he can do better than third in first-choice ballots remains unanswered. Even Lee seems by polling to be underperforming in Jefferson, and Moreno must demonstrate she can make the transition from media star to political glad-hander to solidify a majority of the white vote.

So if sufficient fractures remain in the electorate, Jefferson could sneak into a runoff. The real key is how the roughly three-eighths undecided vote fragments. At this point in a contest with an incumbent running such a high number shows considerable dissatisfaction with the incumbent. However, it’s one thing for Jefferson not to be competitive with these voters; it’s another thing they’ll vote for another candidate in that its takes an additional step to get them, or enough of them, into another candidate’s column.

Simply, one or more of the challengers have to prove they can be an adequate replacement for Jefferson. If this does not happen, many either will roll off entirely on the contest, or they’ll vote for Jefferson anticipating a “do-over” when he is convicted and almost certainly removed from office with a (hopefully) fresh slate of candidates. The proper way to conceive the undecided non-Republicans at this point is not that they can’t make up their minds about which challenger to choose, it’s whether any of them are worth choosing.

If at least one can make a semi-compelling case for their candidacies, Jefferson is finished, and chances seem good that will happen. But if not, Jefferson has a non-trivial chance of gaining a runoff, and then the dynamics of the race could get unpredictable depending upon who his opponent would be.