Several obvious reversals are on tap for Louisiana’s upcoming veto session, but the balloting that affirmed this regathering of the Legislature provides clues as to what other worthy legislation should be resurrected, and why these bills might be, after their attempted murders by Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards.
This marks the third year in a row a veto session will have convened – previously for the 2021 Regular Session and for the First Extraordinary Session of 2022 – but the first with better-than two-thirds supermajorities attached. Only 31 of 105 representatives and 12 of 39 senators sent in ballots requesting cancellation.
That distribution didn’t quite fall along partisan lines. With no party state Rep. Joe Marino sending in a ballot, Democrat state Sens. Katrina Jackson and Greg Tarver essentially switched places with Republican state Sens. Fred Mills and Rogers Pope. Among other representatives, Democrat state Reps. Roy Daryl Adams, Chad Brown, and Robby Carter all withheld ballots.
This pattern suggests several bills will enjoy veto overrides in the House, which require supermajorities, beginning with three, HB 81, HB 466, and HB 648. The last would prohibit medical interventions to alter the sex of children, where research shows such interventions regretted by almost a third of all children guided into these and a significant portion of others years later feeling no more positively about themselves. HB 466 would prevent school employees from psychological coaching of students about their gender identity in ways inconsistent with state instructional standards and protect school employees and students from confusion over pronoun use of students. HB 81 would cover pronoun usage like HB 466.
Final version passages reveal that HB 466 will win favor easily, with no GOP House dissent and the three Democrats on board under original passage. It wouldn’t be necessary to bring up HB 81 in that case, as its text basically is a subset of HB 466, but it also enjoys similar majorities. With HB 648, GOP state Rep. Joe Stagni did defect originally, but the three Democrats plus others more than made up for that. As well, these are electoral life-and-death matters for Democrat state Rep. Mack Cormier, who although voting against the session must vote for overrides if he has any hope of winning reelection.
Greater uncertainty lies on the Senate side. Last year, Pope helped to torpedo a veto session aligned with the regular session by saying he wouldn’t vote for overrides even for matters he had voted for, with his vote again not to have one perhaps indicative of the same attitude. Fred Mills’ voting not to affirm may indicate his hostility towards HB 648, but he might vote to override other things. Regardless, at least on that and HB 81/HB 466 Jackson and Tarver, both voting for all three, will offset.
These three are near-locks for success, but the picture is murkier for others. The key to whether others come up for overrides depends upon how these put endangered Democrats in a bind electorally, focusing on taxes, crime, and health and election policies.
SB 1 and SB 6 had just a single vote cast against them together, with the linked bills potentially swapping the corporate franchise tax for half of the Quality Jobs Program tax credit, which over the year would become a net tax decrease, so these likely would make it even if marching order went out from Edwards to legislative Democrats to reverse their previous approval. SB 159, which would make seventeen-year-olds potentially prosecutable as adults for some heinous crimes, has with the defection of GOP state Rep. Barry Ivey on original approval just enough to override if everything else stays the same.
Another bill dealing with crime and minors that could see salvation is HB 659 that would aid especially in reducing repeat offenses by creating a statewide database of crimes committed by minors. HB 188 would tighten parole requirements; both had a few Democrats approve, perhaps hoping for their votes to be merely symbolic and not substantive with a veto but now they have to go along again or else face voter retribution.
Among others utilizing the same dynamic, HB 399 that would have schools inform parents with their annual mailer about vaccinations that these are optional seems a good bet to gain new life, but a companion HB 182 that would prohibit schools requiring vaccination against the Wuhan coronavirus, because of the defection of Republican state Sen. Patrick Connick originally, will have to thread the needle. HB 646 would increase election integrity with an additional annual canvass of voters, but faces almost as tight a vote in the Senate as the original vote split among party lines among those present.
Perhaps other victims will come up in the session that will last no more than five days, but Edwards, probably knowingly, vetoed many as he knew several high-profile ones would escape but perhaps leave some little ones behind. Regardless, overriding a handful of his vetoes would make more history under the governorship of Edwards, but from his perspective for the wrong reasons.
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