Today, Edwards signaled that the state would move
into Phase 3. According to federal
government guidelines – which in the past Edwards claims he follows along
with closed-door advice he asserts he receives from the White House Coronavirus
Task Force –the only restriction left for individuals in lower-risk populations
is they “should consider minimizing time spent in crowded environments.” As for
businesses, they can resume “unrestricted staffing of worksites,” but specifically
for places such sit-down dining restaurants, movie theaters, sporting venues, and
places of worship these can operate under “limited” physical distancing
protocols (as opposed to “moderate” or “strict” requirements in Phase 2). Even
more specifically, gyms can remain open if they adhere to standard sanitation
protocols and bars may operate with increased standing room occupancy, where
applicable.
At the very least, this means every kind of
business can open, although with mild capacity restrictions, including bars
which Edwards has kept shut unless they served more food than drinks and/or had
a video poker license. Whether Edwards will match action to words remains
doubtful, indicated by his announcement saying tomorrow details would be
forthcoming – as well they should since his orders expire tomorrow – except
that the face covering requirement in public would continue.
That already runs counter to federal government advice, which never has advocated for such a thing but in Phase 2 counsels that large gatherings “should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed” which could include wearing masks. The Phase 3 guidelines don’t mention that, and while some states in that phase don’t have such a requirement, others do.
The timing is interesting. On Jul. 21, Jul. 30,
and Aug. 25 Edwards made announcements about changes/extensions to
restrictions, several days before these things went into effect. Even the Jul.
13 major retrenchment which included the mask mandate he made two days early.
But on this, he’s going down to the wire, as if he kept waiting for something
to emerge that could justify keeping the restrictions longer.
Which actually, in an indictment of his decision-making,
he has more justification to keep in place now than he did weeks ago. Consider
the data
on the four dates on which decisions about restrictions were made, and review
the two statistics the federal government advocated prior to moving into a new
phase – downward trajectory of cases over 14 days or in positive proportion
of tests (there are others, but the state long ago met those) – plus a lagging
indicator, hospitalizations, using 14-day rolling averages for very
conservative smoothing and trend establishment:
Jul. 11 – cases up 159 percent, positivity up 67
percent, hospitalizations up 51 percent. The crackdown intensified, and the data
lent that some credence, even if Edwards’ reaction was overbroad.
Jul. 21 (when the impact of the Jul. 13 changes
had just eight days of implementation) – cases up 69 percent, positivity up 10
percent, hospitalizations up 64 percent. You still could make a case for extending
restrictions, but clearly a change was coming – and probably more from external
factors such as acquisition
of herd immunity than anything done from Jul. 13 on, with the median case manifesting
five days after infection.
Jul. 30 – cases up 13 percent, positivity down 15
percent, hospitalizations up 37 percent. The target is met, yet Edwards extends
the set of restrictions until Aug. 28.
Aug. 25 – cases down 50 percent, positivity down
30 percent, hospitalizations down 23 percent. Yet Edwards extends the set still
again to Sep. 11, citing uncertainties (or, perhaps as a more realistic description,
grasping at straws as a means to continue his agenda implementation on this
issue) about bad weather and a return to college in-person classrooms over a week
earlier, the latter of which he had known about for weeks.
And now, compare to Sep. 8 (the day earlier this
week normally he would have been expected to announce a decision, but pointedly
passed upon) – cases down 7 percent, positivity up 21 percent, hospitalizations
down 24 percent. The two criteria together actually are worse than in later
August, and no better than at the end of July.
So, what’s different now that essentially compels
Edwards to pay lip service at least to loosening the strictures? Three things,
none scientific, all political: (1) the decision by schools at all levels and apparently
strongly supported by families to resume in-person classes, which contradicted
the Edwards narrative about problematic control of the virus, (2) the decision by
these to play football, which Edwards
opposed until entering Phase 3 so as to make the tail wag the dog, and (3)
a public increasingly fatigued at his hesitation, some of which have taken to suing
or recalling
him. Plus, legislators lie in wait with a petition
to cancel his emergency rule-making authority that makes it easier to sign
the more the public pushes back.
His agenda in delaying? Edwards has plenty of political
reasons to make matters look worse than they are. He backs a frivolous suit – ironically,
against himself – that would degrade
the integrity of fall elections using the pandemic as an excuse. The longer
he can keep more of the economy closed, the more likely he can squeeze money
out of federal taxpayers to allow him to continue propping up oversized state
government. Additionally, he undoubtedly has acquired a taste for ruling by
decree when he can instead of having his plans thwarted by the Legislature.
We’ll see tomorrow if Edwards is playing a shell
game or actually grants meaningful relief, but known now is, in proclaiming the
state is moving on, that he hasn’t stopped putting politics before science in
making these decisions.
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