Within the past month no fewer
than five Republicans have announced and/or filed paperwork to organize their
candidacies for the open seat. They include physician Dr. Trey Baucum, former state Sen. Elbert Guillory, Shreveport City
Councilman Oliver Jenkins, lawyer Rick John, and state Rep. Mike Johnson.
Guillory perhaps has the highest
profile, having recently run for lieutenant governor and of some renown as the
only black Republican legislator in the state for over a century when he made
the switch from Democrat a few years ago. However, he ran an underwhelming race
for the state’s second spot, gathering only eight percent of the vote. Then
again, he spent just around $56,000 when his opponents far more than he. This
demonstrated either or both that he has a core of support, likely proportionally
higher in the district than statewide, and that he did not do much to have potential
donors take him seriously.
This makes the frontrunner Johnson,
who has won his two elections without drawing an opponent. While these free
rides into office make him an untested campaigner, it also shows tremendous
background support, built chiefly on social issues. Last year, Johnson gained
great publicity for offering legislation to protect
individuals from discriminatory actions by government based upon beliefs about
marriage, a natural outgrowth both of his constitutional law background and
ties to the evangelical community.
With strong support in (particularly)
northwest and southwest Louisiana for conservative social values and his
history, Johnson already can count on a significant portion of votes. If able
to emphasize his conservatism on economic and other issues, it will prove tough
to keep him out of the runoff given this field.
Worse, from the perspective of
Democrats, having one of theirs in the contest most likely would seal the win
for Johnson. The district
has one-third black registration, so a Democrat running would capture much
of that, but only a small portion would come at Johnson’s expense with Guillory
losing the largest number of them. That almost certainly would guarantee a
runoff between a Democrat and Johnson, giving him the win. Democrat elites’ dislike
of Guillory, whose runoff chances brighten considerably without a Democrat
contesting, make unappealing as well a scenario with him and Johnson vying in a
runoff.
Which is why Democrats might turn
to Jenkins to stop this pair. In his six years on the City Council, he has acted
the way they hope Republican politicians would in a majority Democrat/black
political environment – going along with their policy preferences more often
than challenging these, arguing things can be done better at the margins instead
of confronting them over the size of government – an attitude that has led to
the steady atrophy of Republican influence in Shreveport governance to the
point the GOP has not run a credible mayoral candidate in almost two decades.
Particularly appealing as a foil
to Johnson, Jenkins
sponsored the city’s ill-advised “Fairness Ordinance,” with its
heavy-handed approach restricting latitude regarding some commercial activity and
employer-employee relationships by privileging some behavior – the opposite of
the protections Johnson’s bill sought to guarantee. By his backing of the
trendy ordinance, Jenkins can distinguish himself from other candidates in
selling himself to Democrats.
But it would be a mistake to
count out the two political newcomers in a district whose last three
congressmen over the past three decades comprised of two who prior to their election
never had served in elected office and one who had served a term as a coroner
in a rural parish. Both Baucum and John seem capable of self-financing to some
degree, and in a national political environment where candidates seen as not part
of a political establishment have experienced unprecedented success, the same
dynamic may turn either of them into a formidable candidate that can make an
inevitable runoff.
So while Johnson may seem the
most likely to make it to December’s round, at this point it’s not unrealistic
to think any of the five could end up there.
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