It also elicits a sigh of relief
from Democrat Gov. John
Bel Edwards. Kennedy would have posed the strongest challenger to an
Edwards reelection, and probably would have defeated the incumbent had the
election occurred to day. The treasurer winning the Senate obviously removes
that threat, which would be reduced by his running and failing to win it, so
now Edwards is a happy camper as a result of Kennedy’s choice. Kennedy likely headed
in this direction spurred by his two past failures to snare the office (the
first time as a Democrat) and at age 64 he would have to wait three more years
to run for governor while not getting any younger.
His entrance makes him the best
option at present for Democrats, who do not yet have a declared candidate. Of
the Republicans running, only Anh “Joseph” Cao has the potential to have
prompted significant crossover voting from Democrats, and, given the vast gulf
in experience and publicity that Kennedy has earned over his 17 years as
Treasurer and from that perch sniping at existing policy-makers for what he
sees as a lack of fiscal probity, Cao as a Republican alternative for Democrats
shrivels into insignificance. Kennedy would steal votes from any moderate
Democrat that dares to run (the only Democrat name mentioned that comes
close to this near-mythical creature is state Sen. Gary Smith), pushing into mathematically
impossible territory the chance of such a candidate winning a seat.
With Kennedy aboard, with the
chances of a more moderate Democrat that could make the runoff diminished close
to zero, now that party faces a choice: roll the dice on a more moderate
candidate likely aced out of the runoff or go with a hard core liberal that has
a decent chance of making the runoff who will get slaughtered in the runoff but
perhaps would provide incentive for the extreme left to turn out and support
down-ballot candidates. In other words, they can bet on a longshot that could
backfire down the ballot or put up a sacrificial lamb that could help win a few
other races.
Among Republicans, with Kennedy’s
entry Cao has company in being put on the defensive. While a conservative, the
more moderate leanings of Rep. Charles
Boustany also makes some of his support vulnerable for capture by Kennedy.
And Kennedy completely steals the thunder of 2014 Senate candidate Rob Maness, whose reputation as a
conservative already made for tough sledding when stacked against Rep. John Fleming, considered the most
conservative prominent figure running. This left as Maness’ only opening to
present himself as a non-Washington conservative, if not populist as well,
alternative to Fleming, but now Kennedy can position himself as a non-establishment
populist with far more credibility.
Kennedy’s entrance least impacts
Fleming, who with Maness now further neutralized has the clearest path to the
runoff. But his problem is that, once there, Kennedy likely would be his
opponent and would win that matchup. Fleming must hope that a quality Democrat
enters the contest to siphon enough votes from Kennedy to relegate him to third
place or lower.
With his crossover appeal and
credibility, Kennedy now becomes the clear favorite in the field as it now
stands, with Fleming best placed to join him in the runoff, although Boustany
would not trail by much. Cao and Maness have become afterthoughts, while the
likes of Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle should give many
second thoughts to running and instead try for a more realistically-attained
congressional seat, and other possible Republican entrants such as Public
Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta
and state Rep. Paul
Hollis, both of whom would compete in the solid conservative lane with
Fleming, might find their resources too sparse and opportunities too limited to
make any serious attempt.
Democrats must now ask themselves
whether they can live with Kennedy or run someone meaningful with little chance
of winning that increases the chances of Fleming or perhaps Boustany triumphing.
They may settle for the treasurer solely on the basis that Kennedy
already has demonstrated he will act as a powerful critic of Edwards and
that shuffling him off to the Senate might turn down the heat. And he did campaign
as a liberal Democrat only a dozen years ago.
So unless a significant Democrat
makes a play for the seat, Kennedy finally has found a Senate contest that is
his to lose.
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