This space being devoted to
political analysis, it will eschew the more gossipy speculation about
McAllister’s stated primary motivation for the turnaround, that his wife, whom
he cuckolded some months ago, told him that the district’s constituents
deserved his representation so that he should not unilaterally remove himself
from their adulation. No doubt many a journal article will be written by marriage
counseling professionals concerning the amazing speed at which this marriage
found repair, the need for achieving this being the reason McAllister once gave
for eschewing reelection, so that McAllister and his wife once again could
tackle the unglamorous, penurious, and empty social life and standing that
comes with being a Member of Congress and a spouse of one.
While comparisons between
McAllister and Sen. David
Vitter will get made in judging McAllister’s chances of success, the
accurate ones will note the considerable dissimilarities. Vitter, who admitted
to a “serious sin” believe to be consorting with prostitutes, made the
announcement many years after the alleged last act, from which time he appeared
to have behaved in this department without reproach. It also came after several
years of service in Congress that his constituents on the whole found more than
satisfactory, and three years before he ran for reelection.
By contrast, McAllister has had
but a cup of coffee in Washington with no accomplishments to his name, his
dalliance ended only months ago (followed by the resignation of the married
female staffer after revelation of their trysts), and his reelection attempt
approaches in four months. But perhaps worst of all, a major theme of his
successful special election campaign was he was not a Washington politician
that could bring good, clean living to the joint, and so what is the first
thing he does after getting there? Just like the worst stereotype, he acquires
a mistress.
Nevertheless, while he will not
have nearly the support he did last time precisely because many voters will see
him as a betrayer and fraudulent, given the current configuration to the
contest, he is not a longshot to retain his post. To date, only almost totally
unknown Republicans and a Libertarian have entered the race. If this turns out
to be the field, he has a fighting chance.
Part of his advantage is that the
well has become poisoned
to candidates that projected the aura that he tried when he first ran. Now,
voters might find some comfort in a seasoned candidate who has held some kind
of non-minor elective office and none of these fit that bill. And while his
ability to self-finance a campaign this time around is crimped and he might
find his troubles don’t exactly vacuum money in, he does have as a resource
incumbency (even if somewhat tarnished). But these considerations are merely
the kind that might push McAllister over the goal line.
What could get him there is that
there is as yet no Democrat in the contest. The theory here would be that
snaring McAllister for an occasional vote their way here and there brings a
greater return than the lengthy odds of getting one of their own in who will
vote their way always. With a base vote of about 40 percent and with activists
urging a vote for McAllister, it wouldn’t take a lot of forgiving Republicans
to put him over the top.
Whether that strategy best would
play out for Democrats is another matter. If they were not to run a candidate,
they might miss out on a once-in-a-generation chance to grab the seat for
themselves. Politically wounded as he is, if they united behind a single
candidate they might draw him in the runoff with theirs, and enough disaffected
Republicans could defect to give that Democrat the win. It seems that decision
has been made in favor of reaching for a win with the impending entrance of
former candidate Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo into the race.
Yet while that political calculus
is unclear, entirely transparent is that unless one or more of the other
candidates in the contest can develop a widespread and convincing message to
voters of their conservatism, and/or until a quality candidate of that nature
not yet in the running takes the plunge, regardless of whether a Democrat runs
McAllister has a decent chance of making the runoff and almost certainly would
without a Democrat running, which means he could ace out an unsullied
conservative Republican from winning the seat. Either those announced candidates
need to get it together and fast, or somebody of their ideology with meaningful
and recent elective experience, resources, and drive needs to get into the
race, and now, in order to prevent this.
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