As Louisiana political leaders assert
they’ll come up with a quickie budget in case they have to move fast, they
must recognize the other shoe will drop with lagging state revenues.
Yesterday, the Legislature’s Republican leadership
described efforts to put together a contingency package, sparked by fears if Wuhan
coronavirus could continue for some time to radiate as rapidly as it has then
the Legislature would have to shut down. Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards joined
them in that assessment. The state has to have its several budgets complete for
next fiscal year by Jun. 30.
But they have to recognize that to rely even on
existing official revenue forecasts likely overestimates the money the state
will have available for the next 12 months starting Jul. 1. The Edwards
Administration made
an attempt to create estimates $103 million higher in the general fund as
part of $285 million more in spending, backed by other increases in sources of
revenues such as dedications. However, GOP leaders argued for a much lower
number, which Edwards’ Commissioner of Administration Jay Dardenne
rejected.
Right analysis, wrong agent.
A
month ago, I wrote that Louisiana Democrats wouldn’t have any real
influence over their party’s presidential nomination. With so many delegates elsewhere
to be decided by the first Saturday in April – a position dictated because the
holiday and elections calendar conflicted – the history of a nominee decided by
then made it highly likely to neuter Democrats’ votes for this contest.
But I had the wrong guy. At the time, it appeared independent
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders had the
path necessary to win. His closest ideological competitor Democrat
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth
Warren had performed well below expectations and seemed an obvious choice
to depart the contest. Meanwhile, party establishment favorite Democrat former
Vice Pres. Joe Biden flagged in the polls
as he threw off gaffe after gaffe and Democrats’ recent attempt to impeach and
remove Republican Pres. Donald Trump shone
more unfavorable light on Biden’s activities in office, and independent former
New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg appeared poised to convert a lot of
campaign cash into primary votes, splitting opposition to Sanders.
There goes not only the supposed budgetary surplus
for this and the upcoming fiscal year, but also a fake accomplishment Democrat
Gov. John Bel Edwards
alleged throughout his reelection campaign last year.
At the last meeting of the Revenue Estimating
Conference, Edwards’ representative Commissioner of Administration Jay Dardenne
got
all hot and bothered when House Speaker Republican Clay Schexnayder
rejected his desire to have the panel declare that the state had $170 million more
for this fiscal year and $103 million for the approaching one. The speaker argued
for, respectively, lower and dramatically lower figures, saying they should keep
“some conservative
in the forecast.”
Dardenne objected to this that he called a
politicization of REC forecasting – despite the process set up to induce
political judgment into its decision-making – and voted to prevent the lower
forecasts favored by Schexnayder and GOP Senate Pres. Page Cortez from becoming official. By
doing so, he ended up keeping even more conservative in the official
prediction, which remained unchanged from last year. And that has turned out to
be a good thing.
Carnival krewes can chunk
what many see as racist throws, and there’s not a thing Louisiana or any of
its municipalities can do to stop it.
Democrat state Sen. Troy Carter made
news when he introduced SB 261, which
would ban the tossing of “hate-related objects” during a parade or
demonstration, that he called inspired by the story of young boy catching a
throw featuring a caricature of a black man holding a watermelon with a noose
around his neck. It proposes heavy fines and prison time for the thrower, although
if not identifiable then fining the organization.
It’s a publicity stunt, because such a law violates
the U.S. Constitution in many ways, starting with basic free speech rights. If
someone wants to go around spouting racist themes by print, speech/broadcast,
or, in this instance, symbol, you’re free to do so. And, naturally, what is a “hate-related”
object, which the bill doesn’t define?
The adults intervened, handing Louisiana Democrat
Gov. John Bel Edwards
a humiliating defeat on food stamps policy.
Last week, Edwards acknowledged this by sheepishly
retracting Executive Order JBE 16-12
with JBE
20-5. This came in response to the finalization of
federal government rules regarding the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance
Program that essentially forcibly restored changes Edwards had made to eligibility
requirements not long after taking office.
His predecessor, joining the majority of states,
just before leaving office had let expire waivers the state had regarding SNAP.
Ordinarily, under the old (and illegal)
federal rules a state could ask for a blanket waiver of program requirements that
able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWD) work, train for work, or
volunteer in order to qualify to receive this benefit more than three months
out of every three years.
As a Louisiana liberal steeped in the state’s
populist tradition, Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards
knows the best way to stop something that makes sense with a lot of momentum against
his special interest allies is to demagogue it to death.
He registered full-throated illustration of this among
his otherwise reheated comments this week to the media. Largely replaying his inauguration
remarks that put forth an agenda going nowhere, he also introduced a new
element addressing likely the hottest issue of the legislative regular
session starting next week: tort reform of case law involving vehicles.
With the public increasingly tired of Louisiana’s extraordinarily
high rates – second
for passenger vehicles – Republicans have presented an impressive package
of bills that builds upon best practices for lower rates in other states,
incorporating many items they have offered in the past. The compelling nature
of these bills plus the overwhelming GOP majorities in both chambers means
these bills will pass.
Northeast Louisiana may become ground zero for an
educational experiment without parallel in Louisiana history: rather than
looking to have a district separate, such as what happened with Ouachita Parish
and Monroe City schools, districts may end up combining to a certain extent.
Last year, the Louisiana Legislature asked the
Department of Education to review the deteriorating financial situation in many
school districts. Particularly rural districts have fought stagnant if not
declining populations, which dampen business activity and tax revenues, in the
face of ever-increasing costs.
The report, released
last month, noted that about a third of all districts faced fiscal pressure.
Six in particular – Union,
Morehouse,
East
Carroll, Tensas,
Madison,
and Catahoula
the document identified at elevated risk. Together, these hosted 26 traditional
public schools with around 9,200 students in the fall. Their 2018 financial reports
(only up-to-date Catahoula has released its 2019 audit) excluding Catahoula show
together their net positions deteriorated by $48 million from 2017 (Catahoula
eked out a tiny gain from 2018 to 2019).
It’s what Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards does
best – says he’ll change something to make Louisiana less inhibitive of economic
growth, only to produce a cosmetic result that does nothing substantive.
Until now, his best-known
sleight-of-hand in this regard concerns the Supplemental Nutritional
Assistance Program. He abandoned the requirement of his predecessor that able-bodied
adults without dependents receiving it work, train for work, or volunteer, and
replaced that with meaningless executive order that changed nothing about that
while alleging it accomplished much the same thing as he had discarded. Fortunately,
over these next few months SNAP rules changes by the Republican Pres. Donald Trump Administration
essentially will cancel Edwards’ intervention and put the state back in the
posture prior to his arrival.
Last month,
Edwards may have topped that. During his first term, he changed the rules of
the Industrial Tax Exemption Program on a couple of occasions. This property tax
break for major capital expenditures offset the confiscatory local levies on corporations,
but had no local input. His new rules basically gave a veto power to major
local entities, which disconcerted businesses who complained conditions sought
by local governments to grant the credit could make the activities in question economically
unviable and thereby would discourage investment.
