If Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards
doesn’t have a general sinking feeling, he’s
not paying attention.
A poll
unconnected to any Louisiana gubernatorial campaign released earlier this week
put him at 38 percent of the three-way vote for reelection Oct. 12, facing
Republicans Rep. Ralph Abraham,
who scored 23 percent, and businessman Eddie Rispone, who took in 7
percent. A subsequent pair of runoff questions had him drawing 40-36 over
Abraham and 41-28 over Rispone, with the remainder undecided.
These numbers aren’t good for Edwards. An
incumbent who has a good chance of winning pulls at least 45 percent of the
vote in any given poll; one who doesn’t reach 40 percent is in serious trouble.
This phenomenon reflects that undecided voters largely either don’t vote at all
or break for challengers. Other indicators also point to trouble ahead for
Edwards.
Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport. If you're an elected official, political operative or anyone else upset at his views, don't go bothering LSUS or LSU System officials about that because these are his own views solely. This publishes five days weekly with the exception of 7 holidays. Also check out his Louisiana Legislature Log especially during legislative sessions (in "Louisiana Politics Blog Roll" below).
Search This Blog
9.5.19
8.5.19
Perkins promises openness while dissembling
If this is what “stubbed our toe” looks like, I’d
hate to see a full-scale accident.
That phrase Democrat Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins used to describe his handling of the city’s insurance renewal. Actions he took over the first four months of his administration led to, by his own description, city taxpayers in 2018 paying $550,000 for $815 million in single-occurrence insurance while in 2019 they forked over $900,000 for $300 million worth.
However, he begged for the people’s patience on this matter. “We're gonna make some stumbles. We are a new administration. But the key part about that is we're gonna learn from them and be better going forward,” he explained to a local radio station.
That phrase Democrat Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins used to describe his handling of the city’s insurance renewal. Actions he took over the first four months of his administration led to, by his own description, city taxpayers in 2018 paying $550,000 for $815 million in single-occurrence insurance while in 2019 they forked over $900,000 for $300 million worth.
However, he begged for the people’s patience on this matter. “We're gonna make some stumbles. We are a new administration. But the key part about that is we're gonna learn from them and be better going forward,” he explained to a local radio station.
7.5.19
LA House GOP rewriting education spending
It seems Louisiana’s House Republicans have turned
things up a notch to improve the state’s dismal elementary and secondary
education.
In the quest to fund this for fiscal year 2020, to date the Senate has backed the rare alliance of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards and legislative Democrats with the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, controlled by Republicans. The Minimum Foundation Program continuing resolutions express their preference, not just a pay raise for educators of $1,000 and support staff of $500 yearly but also a 1.375 percent increase for other aspects of education.
The MFP formula sets a benchmark that the Legislature must accept or reject. If it rejects, the last-approved version applies. That means approval of this formula locks in the raises and extra spending until any future BESE wants to change that. If not approved, then no raises would occur through the MFP, even though most legislators regardless of party have expressed a desire to see that occur in an election year.
In the quest to fund this for fiscal year 2020, to date the Senate has backed the rare alliance of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards and legislative Democrats with the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, controlled by Republicans. The Minimum Foundation Program continuing resolutions express their preference, not just a pay raise for educators of $1,000 and support staff of $500 yearly but also a 1.375 percent increase for other aspects of education.
The MFP formula sets a benchmark that the Legislature must accept or reject. If it rejects, the last-approved version applies. That means approval of this formula locks in the raises and extra spending until any future BESE wants to change that. If not approved, then no raises would occur through the MFP, even though most legislators regardless of party have expressed a desire to see that occur in an election year.
6.5.19
LA political journalism roiled by big merger
Well, scratch
that.
When the Baton Rouge Advocate decided to pursue a paywall strategy, this created a significant ripple in the Louisiana political journalism landscape. Its decision to buy the entity that owns the New Orleans Times-Picayune induces a tsunami.
An independent T-P looked to gain much from the paywall choice. As the last major newspaper standing in the state without one, it would have benefitted from the flow away from The Advocate. Keep in mind what the research says about paywalls: they act to capture revenue not from the online market, but by shoring up offline subscriptions for people wanting local news. Thus, those wanting something else, like statewide political news, would go to other sources.
When the Baton Rouge Advocate decided to pursue a paywall strategy, this created a significant ripple in the Louisiana political journalism landscape. Its decision to buy the entity that owns the New Orleans Times-Picayune induces a tsunami.
An independent T-P looked to gain much from the paywall choice. As the last major newspaper standing in the state without one, it would have benefitted from the flow away from The Advocate. Keep in mind what the research says about paywalls: they act to capture revenue not from the online market, but by shoring up offline subscriptions for people wanting local news. Thus, those wanting something else, like statewide political news, would go to other sources.
5.5.19
Voters punish Bossier schools leadership
That two
tax propositions got crushed in Bossier Parish tells us multiple factors
caused such a stinging defeat.
The two measures featured in Louisiana local elections this past weekend, along with next-door Caddo renewing a property tax to underwrite bonds for school facilities, an Orleans Parish item that rededicated and redistributed existing property taxes among city and nonprofit recreation facilities, and one that in Jefferson Parish added a new property tax for educator salaries. Those all passed handily almost three-to-one, the exact opposite of the items in Bossier.
However, the Jefferson increase paled in comparison to the one for pay in Bossier, being about a third as large (the ones in Caddo and Orleans were of similar size). The Bossier request of nearly 24 mills would have increase school property taxes by 40 percent and would have made those paid by Bossierites 16 percent higher than the next highest in the state, top-ranked Zachary Community (Bossier Parish schools, by contrast, barely crack the top 20 in performance).
The two measures featured in Louisiana local elections this past weekend, along with next-door Caddo renewing a property tax to underwrite bonds for school facilities, an Orleans Parish item that rededicated and redistributed existing property taxes among city and nonprofit recreation facilities, and one that in Jefferson Parish added a new property tax for educator salaries. Those all passed handily almost three-to-one, the exact opposite of the items in Bossier.
However, the Jefferson increase paled in comparison to the one for pay in Bossier, being about a third as large (the ones in Caddo and Orleans were of similar size). The Bossier request of nearly 24 mills would have increase school property taxes by 40 percent and would have made those paid by Bossierites 16 percent higher than the next highest in the state, top-ranked Zachary Community (Bossier Parish schools, by contrast, barely crack the top 20 in performance).
2.5.19
Legislators whiff on patronage program reform
Give Republican state Sen. Dan Claitor credit for figuring it out.
But that still didn’t make a difference in the final outcome.
Claitor saw his SB 183 go down in flames yesterday. The bill would have reined in the expansive Tulane Legislative Scholarship program (a separate one exists for the mayor of New Orleans), which allows legislators to pick essentially anyone except themselves, including business partners, friends, relatives (except for children, although this isn’t written into law), and donors and their families, to attend Tulane University tuition-free (these deals from 1884 allowed Tulane to separate itself from the state to become a private university and granted it property tax-free status in Orleans Parish).
Over the decades, a number of students related to elected officials, lobbyists, and donors have received this largesse. Even though Tulane has implemented programs that permit legislators to have the university make the decision, only a few Jefferson Parish legislators on occasion have defaulted to that. Others have set up their own imprecise procedures that inject some merit rating to applicants, but the vast majority of selections come down to who knows who and/or who’s asking.
Claitor saw his SB 183 go down in flames yesterday. The bill would have reined in the expansive Tulane Legislative Scholarship program (a separate one exists for the mayor of New Orleans), which allows legislators to pick essentially anyone except themselves, including business partners, friends, relatives (except for children, although this isn’t written into law), and donors and their families, to attend Tulane University tuition-free (these deals from 1884 allowed Tulane to separate itself from the state to become a private university and granted it property tax-free status in Orleans Parish).
Over the decades, a number of students related to elected officials, lobbyists, and donors have received this largesse. Even though Tulane has implemented programs that permit legislators to have the university make the decision, only a few Jefferson Parish legislators on occasion have defaulted to that. Others have set up their own imprecise procedures that inject some merit rating to applicants, but the vast majority of selections come down to who knows who and/or who’s asking.
1.5.19
Zealotry ignores science in CAGW screed
Louisiana environmentalists’ version of Crazy
Uncle Joe Biden, Crazy Uncle Bob Marshall, has gone Chicken Little on us again.
Like Biden in the world of politics, the former outdoors reporter Marshall when addressing environmental issues has a habit not only of making embarrassingly foolish statements, but also doing so comically in such a hyperventilating, spleen-venting way that makes one wonder whether he passes out at the keyboard when typing his screeds.
He treated readers at his former employer to another such example when he reported on updates to storm surge maps issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center. These show that a terrifically large hurricane could push enough water to inundate Baton Rouge, and smaller ones could flood the north shore, Cajun and bayou countries, the southwest part of the state, and even Baton Rouge’s suburban parishes.
Like Biden in the world of politics, the former outdoors reporter Marshall when addressing environmental issues has a habit not only of making embarrassingly foolish statements, but also doing so comically in such a hyperventilating, spleen-venting way that makes one wonder whether he passes out at the keyboard when typing his screeds.
He treated readers at his former employer to another such example when he reported on updates to storm surge maps issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center. These show that a terrifically large hurricane could push enough water to inundate Baton Rouge, and smaller ones could flood the north shore, Cajun and bayou countries, the southwest part of the state, and even Baton Rouge’s suburban parishes.
30.4.19
LA criminal justice changes may prove draining
Advocates of criminal justice changes in Louisiana
pitched that it would save the state money. In fact, it may cost taxpayers more.
That well could happen if the Legislature passes HB 551 by state Rep. Katrina Jackson. The bill would increase the amount paid by the state to local jails for housing its prisoners from $24.49 to $28.49. As the state sends (as of the end of 2018) over half of its inmates to local lockups, this would jack up taxpayer costs around $97 million over the next five years. It passed its initial test, a House committee, with no votes against.
This contrasts with dollars saved from changes designed to reduced the prison population. Computed at around $13 million for the past fiscal year – the first under the changes – state officials think the amount will reach about $15 million for this fiscal year.
That well could happen if the Legislature passes HB 551 by state Rep. Katrina Jackson. The bill would increase the amount paid by the state to local jails for housing its prisoners from $24.49 to $28.49. As the state sends (as of the end of 2018) over half of its inmates to local lockups, this would jack up taxpayer costs around $97 million over the next five years. It passed its initial test, a House committee, with no votes against.
This contrasts with dollars saved from changes designed to reduced the prison population. Computed at around $13 million for the past fiscal year – the first under the changes – state officials think the amount will reach about $15 million for this fiscal year.
29.4.19
Wrong claims to abolish death penalty persist
A new legislative year brings the same old inadequate
arguments to ban capital punishment in Louisiana, although with one new wrinkle
for Catholics.
Two bills filed for the regular legislative session seek to eliminate the death penalty, and in support of these the Most Rev. Shelton Fabre, Bishop of Houma-Thibodaux, sums up the usual arguments against the practice in an opinion column. Fabre is no stranger to this issue, having taken the point on the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops efforts to combat racism that has given him opportunities to assert, as he did in the piece, that prejudicial application of the death penalty presents a reason to reject the practice.
Specifically, he notes “Nearly 70 percent of the people on Louisiana’s death row are people of color, the highest percentage of any state with more than three people on death row. In one study of Louisiana’s system, the chances of a death sentence were 97 percent higher for defendants whose victim was white than for defendants whose victim was black. Louisianans should not stand for this prejudice.”
Two bills filed for the regular legislative session seek to eliminate the death penalty, and in support of these the Most Rev. Shelton Fabre, Bishop of Houma-Thibodaux, sums up the usual arguments against the practice in an opinion column. Fabre is no stranger to this issue, having taken the point on the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops efforts to combat racism that has given him opportunities to assert, as he did in the piece, that prejudicial application of the death penalty presents a reason to reject the practice.
Specifically, he notes “Nearly 70 percent of the people on Louisiana’s death row are people of color, the highest percentage of any state with more than three people on death row. In one study of Louisiana’s system, the chances of a death sentence were 97 percent higher for defendants whose victim was white than for defendants whose victim was black. Louisianans should not stand for this prejudice.”
28.4.19
Senate looks to provide Edwards more cover
Get ready for another Louisiana Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards
two-step to try to fool voters.
HB 258 by Republican state Rep. Nick Muscarello would keep confidential information about parties involved in carrying out a capital sentence. In particular, it would shield from public records the data regarding providers of drugs pursuant to lethal injection.
Over the past several years, manufacturers and pharmacies have grown skittish over making these sales to states. Activists ignorant of or unwilling to acknowledge that regular executions of those sentenced to death deters violent crime and saves lives have engaged in a publicity campaign highlighting those vendors role in carrying out lethal injection, and with suppliers involved wishing to avoid a spotlight that could have a negative impact on their sales of any product, the drugs have become hard to come by. Some states have enacted similar laws to prevent this intimidation, with Louisiana officials conceding this negativity has contributed to Louisiana’s nearly decade-long moratorium on executions.
HB 258 by Republican state Rep. Nick Muscarello would keep confidential information about parties involved in carrying out a capital sentence. In particular, it would shield from public records the data regarding providers of drugs pursuant to lethal injection.
Over the past several years, manufacturers and pharmacies have grown skittish over making these sales to states. Activists ignorant of or unwilling to acknowledge that regular executions of those sentenced to death deters violent crime and saves lives have engaged in a publicity campaign highlighting those vendors role in carrying out lethal injection, and with suppliers involved wishing to avoid a spotlight that could have a negative impact on their sales of any product, the drugs have become hard to come by. Some states have enacted similar laws to prevent this intimidation, with Louisiana officials conceding this negativity has contributed to Louisiana’s nearly decade-long moratorium on executions.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)