Poll numbers disguise Edwards' vulnerability

Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards shouldn’t break his arm patting himself on the back. His latest poll numbers do nothing to remove his underdog status for reelection.

Southern Media Opinion Research released a survey asking for the popularity of several state political figures and opinion on a few issues. Three prominent national Republicans from Louisiana polled between 45-55 percent approval, but Edwards topped them at 65 percent. One, Sen. John Kennedy who drew 54 percent, some speculate may run against Edwards in 2019.

But history has demonstrated only the foolhardy extrapolate polling numbers not at the extremes to electoral strength. Disregarding that things can change in a hurry even to make very high or low numbers not indicative of future electoral performance – witness the sky-high ratings of former Pres. George H. W. Bush yet his losing reelection fewer than two years later – approval ratings occur in isolation, while elections do not. As a case in point, former Pres. Barack Obama’s number stayed under 50 percent for most of his first term, yet because the GOP put up a relatively weak candidate, he managed to score a second term.

LA, its people better off from impending tax reform

It’s official: wide-ranging federal income tax cuts begin in 2018 that promise to boost economic growth and let most people keep more of what they earn. And while tax reform always produces winners and losers, in general Louisiana and Louisianans come out winners.

As previously noted, the state benefits from changes in rules about deductions. The typical taxpayer will see a cut in his federal tax bill, but will take a portion of that to pay a higher Louisiana tax assessment (as the federal rate at all levels exceeds the state rate).

Additionally, while some economists take a less optimistic view of long-term growth as a result of the changes than do others, all agree in the short run a noticeable pickup in economic activity, which will increase organically Louisiana’s tax base. As a result, the Revenue Estimating Conference at its next meeting in the first quarter of 2018 must factor in both sources of revenue boosting, which will reduce any projected deficit and thereby any need to increase taxes after temporary ones roll off at the end of the second quarter.

Edwards loses on contract dispute, but not much

Maybe they both blinked a little, but it seems the more severe eye-watering came from Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards. Although, for him, maybe not for naught.

Last week, the Joint Legislative Committee on the Budget approved contracts for Medicaid service providers that manage insurance for 1.5 million Louisianans. It took four tries for Edwards to have approved the $15.4 billion worth of business, or about a quarter of state spending for the next two years, to pass legislators’ muster.

Originally, almost two months ago, the House wanted some changes, primarily to ensure close scrutiny by the Legislative Auditor. The Edwards Administration admitted the benefits of such language and did not argue it could not add that with difficulty. But Edwards, looking to manufacture controversy that could aid his reelection campaign, dug in his heels and refused to do so.

Trending? Another GOP LA representative leaves

When Republican former state Rep. Chris Broadwater told the world he had quit his post to spend more time with his family, no doubt he meant it. But he also joined some lawmakers recently departed who may have lost their enthusiasm as they struggled with marginalized places in the House of Representatives.

Broadwater became the fifth ally of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards to jump ship prior to the end of his term since the inauguration. The group includes former state Reps. Bryan Adams and Joe Lopinto, both Republicans even through that party controls the chamber, and Democrats Jack Montoucet and Ed Price.

In the 2016 organizational session of the House, Adams and Lopinto crossed party lines, voting for Democrat state Rep. Walter Leger to be Speaker. Other Republicans still in the body who did so include state Reps. Bubba Chaney, Chris Hazel, Rogers Pope, and Rob Shadoin.

The Advocate column, Dec. 17, 2017

Edwards steals Obama's signature move, the sue-and-settle, at citizens' expense
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/opinion/jeff_sadow/article_f72f8002-e0f0-11e7-af87-8b3551ed0fbd.html

Links:
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/administrator-pruitt-issues-directive-end-epa-sue-settle
http://www.houmatoday.com/news/20171130/governor-asks-to-switch-attorneys-in-minority-district-lawsuit
https://www.houmatimes.com/news/the-judge-has-made-his-ruling-now-what-next-no/article_3045397e-87ad-11e7-840e-33427443cc36.html
https://www.houmatimes.com/news/for-ag-governor-different-approaches-emerge-in-naacp-suit/article_581e0e18-d482-11e7-ac2f-238407176c3e.html
http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2017/08/rubbish-court-ruling-ignores-good.html

Congress polarization good unless too personal

Some Louisiana former members of Congress got together recently to whine about Congress. Analyzing past their carping, one can discern the real reasons triggering their views of increased divisiveness in the chambers and its larger meaning.

Rodney Alexander, John Breaux, and Billy Tauzin recently addressed the Council for a Better Louisiana on their perceptions of today’s Congress. All served in the House of Representatives and Breaux additionally in the Senate, which he departed in 2005. Tauzin also left then, and Alexander took off in 2013.

Thus, only Alexander’s experience is reasonably recent, although all have maintained somewhat close connections to the institutions, because they work as lobbyists. That fact clues us in to understanding the insularity of their observations. Nothing like hanging around the same clique, even if it refreshes it membership, for 35 years like Breaux to isolate yourself exceptionally from the rest of the country and the typical citizen.

LA public defense allocations deserve scrutiny

Lots of different sources receive blame for the chronic money shortages faced by Louisiana’s public defenders. And they all deserve it, including the public defenders themselves.

Last year, a new law mandated distribution of at least 65 percent of regular revenues flowing to state public defense go to individual districts. While this increased the total going to districts, controversy has broken out over these allocations.

Public defense funding in Louisiana always has had problems, because so much of the amount for each district derives from local court adjudication. This relies heavily on law enforcement activity; for example, greater diligence in writing traffic tickets means more money for public defense. Thus, defenders suffer the vagaries of enforcement decisions as well as growing attempts by prosecutors to divert that flow of money to defenders through court diversion programs.

Edwards spins to deflect from tax, spend agenda

Gov. John Bel Edwards depends upon the public missing the real story whenever investigating state finances, and he’ll do his best to deflect attention from it.

Last week, the Louisiana Legislative Auditor released its annual report on money kept at the Department of the Treasury. It noted that the total amount bankrolled (which excludes certain funds like for pensions) came to around $6 billion, a decrease from $8.4 billion in fiscal year 2013. Most of that decrease came from state investment funds, some $2.2 billion. The amount available actually had gone down to $1.9 billion in FY 2016, but recovered by a half-billion this year mainly due to $600 million in increased tax revenues.

The Edwards Administration was ready, willing, and able to spin these numbers: “The Legislative Auditor’s report on the state treasury department findings further underscores what … Edwards has been saying about the state’s budget problems. Multiple funds sweeps and other irresponsible and deceptive practices that were used by the previous administration to artificially balance the budget with one-time funds created the state’s current fiscal crisis. Those types of decisions reduced state assets held in the treasury to the point where the state had to take out revenue anticipation notes to make sure its bills were paid on time.”

No, EBR can't stop St. George from incorporating

You can be sure that somebody’s argument operates from incredible weakness when they talk about how complicated is an issue. Case in point: the possibility of blocking creation of the city of St. George in regards to the contents of East Baton Rouge Parish’s Plan of Government.

On the surface, it might surprise observers that, during the protracted battle to incorporate St. George out of most of the southern unincorporated area of the parish, Sec. 1.05 of the document never came up. Its last sentence, after exempting Baker, Central, and Zachary, reads, “No additional city, town or village shall be incorporated in East Baton Rouge Parish.”

If enforced, that would have stopped St. George in its tracks. Indeed, Parish Attorney Lee Anne Batson said, decades ago when the Plan and metropolitan government came into existence, it explicitly wished to write in only the existing cities of Baton Rouge, Baker, and Zachary, prohibiting all others.

The Advocate column, Dec. 10, 2017

Donald Trump's tax cuts will be a holiday blessing for Louisiana; here's why
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/opinion/jeff_sadow/article_51644958-db02-11e7-ab21-eb87e017f1dc.html

Links:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/02/senate-passes-major-tax-reform-package.html
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/03/30/obamas-final-economic-record-not-great.html
http://freebeacon.com/issues/obama-economy-9-9-million-employed-14-6-million-left-labor-force/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/incomes-under-obama-are-nothing-to-brag-about/article/2004373
http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2017/11/change-ticket-policy-to-enhance-la.html