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17.11.22

Arceneaux must attack to have winning chance

Especially when encountering Democrat state Sen. Greg Tarver’s dog whistles, Republican Shreveport mayoral candidate Tom Arceneaux doesn’t seem to have the wherewithal to pursue intensely enough that office successfully.

The two survivors of the general election who will meet in the December runoff participated in a forum this week and answered questions cautiously throughout. Tarver had every reason to, being the perceived frontrunner with the numbers on his side.

Arceneaux didn’t. A candidate in that situation – a white Republican running against a black Democrat in a city with a majority of Democrats more than double Republican registrants and with a black majority electorate – must come out swinging to change the dynamics. Negative campaigning may grate, draw frowns from the chattering classes, and appear clich├ęd – but it works.

16.11.22

Numbers point to expected Tarver mayoral win

Race and partisanship, plus an unpopular incumbent, determined the Shreveport mayor’s general election – and the same dynamics point to the winner in the runoff, an analysis of precinct demographics and voting results from the election shows.

That contest featured five significant candidates: white Republican former city councilor Tom Arceneaux, Hispanic no party Caddo Parish Commissioner Mario Chavez, black Democrat City Councilor LeVette Fuller, black Democrat Mayor Adrian Perkins, and black Democrat state Sen. Greg Tarver. Arceneaux, with 28 percent, and Tarver, with 24 percent, advanced to the runoff; Chavez finished third with 18 percent, Perkins a bit behind him, followed by Fuller with 10 percent.

Using the statistical technique multiple linear regression with voter percentage for each candidate as the dependent variable and percentages of white Democrats, black Democrats, and Republicans as independent variables by precinct reveals the strength and direction, and whether significant, of support for each candidate by these important blocs, by isolating each factor with others held constant. Proportion of other race and party initially were analyzed, given Chavez’s race and non-affiliation, but in all analyses including of his proportions proved insignificant in statistical explanatory power.

15.11.22

On voting, Bossier head goes from pan to fire

The Gospel tells us why it’s important that the Bossier Parish Police Jury, Parish Administrator Butch Ford, and parish Registrar of Voters Stephanie Agee follow the law: “Whoever is faithful in small matters will be faithful in large ones; whoever is dishonest in small matters will be dishonest in large ones.”

On Oct. 19, this space posted a piece about how the Jury didn’t appear in compliance with R.S. 33:1236.1 that dictates that the equivalent of a parish administrator must be a registered voter in that parish, when early this year it hired Joe Edward “Butch” Ford, Jr. for the position. At the time of publication, and since 1985, Ford had been registered to vote in Caddo Parish, Precinct 115.

On Oct. 21, Secretary of State records show Ford registered in Ward 04 Precinct 09 of Bossier Parish. As such, insofar as that statute and the Jury’s obligation to follow it goes it now is compliance with the law, 10 months late.

14.11.22

Black majority cities deny white non-Democrats

The passage of time with several examples this election cycle has demonstrated just how exceptionally Monroe independent Mayor Friday Ellis2020 victory transpired.

Ellis, who is white, grabbed the city’s top spot that summer by fending off black incumbent Democrat Jamie Mayo, who had held the office for nearly 20 years. He won despite the fact that 55 percent of voters registered as Democrats, 63 percent were black, and his main supporters (including his wife, a Republican on the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education) were Republicans.

The roadmap he laid out – in a majority black electorate present an agenda of competence as opposed to an incumbent increasingly detached from voters’ basic concerns but run without a major party label to attract non-Democrats and blacks hesitant to vote for a labeled Republican – gave hope to conservative candidates to win in Louisiana municipalities with these characteristics. At the same time, the nature of his victory made clear circumstances would have to be just right to pull it off.