Best for Caddo voters to reject ballot requests

Caddo Parish voters will face one boondoggle and a subset additionally will deliberate about a search for relevance in their making decisions next month about two tax propositions.

On the ballot Nov. 3 will appear a measure that authorizes the Caddo Parish Commission to blow $70 million on a sports complex. As previously noted, it’s a bad idea that’s not even totally funded – the issue would be only up to $60 million, with $10 million more to be found elsewhere preferably by donations – which rests on pie-in-the-sky hopes of attracting tournaments (which will have the effect of crowding out less-affluent families from having children participate in sports) in an area with plenty of all of government, nonprofit, and for-profit venues. It would waste a lot of money with little return even on the account of amorphous “quality of life” and doesn’t even guarantee that property taxes won’t rise to find it as it only disallows raising the rate for the first year of issuance.

Shreveport voters will have a crack at another one, an item that on the surface begs to renew. The city’s quasi-independent Downtown Development Authority has 9.04 mills – 1.05 mills higher than the expiring levy, due to a decline in the value of downtown properties in aggregate – ready to ramp up in 2028 for 25 years. That funds the agency that many may think doesn’t cost them anything, as the tax is levied only on commercial properties in the district for administration, operational expenses, acquiring property, project expenses and/or the retirement of bonds or other evidences of indebtedness.

Democrat power trip leaves Monroe in lurch

The crybaby majority on Monroe’s City Council, fuming it couldn’t get its way, last week decided to take its toys home and put the city in a bad spot.

At its regular meeting, shortly after convening Democrat Councilors Juanita Woods motioned and Rodney McFarland seconded passing over the entire agenda, and they with Verbon Muhammad approved that over the objection of Republican Councilor Gretchen Ezernack, who at least got a chance to ask why. GOP Councilor Doug Harvey was running late and missed everything.

The Democrats remained closed-lipped about their rationale – with McFarland waving off Woods from even speaking to a reporter – until the next day, when they took to social media to complain their act showed displeasure at “disrespect” from independent Mayor Friday Ellis. The group and he have locked horns over many issues since McFarland and Muhammad took office in mid-2024, and from the timing it appeared on this occasion over the city’s new-old fire chief, Timothy Williams.

CD 5 forum distinguishes little among GOP foes

An issue-oriented candidate forum for Louisiana’s Fifth Congressional District gave viewers a chance to see three repeat candidates and four new ones vying for the office in November (with a likely runoff in December) that did little to set apart competitive Republican candidates.

This was the second such forum conducted by a Monroe television station, public radio station, and the local Chamber of Commerce and the University of Louisiana Monroe. Some months ago, under a prior and unconstitutional district map these entities held a forum featuring present GOP candidates Board of Regents chairwoman Misti Cordell, state Rep. Mike Echols, and independent businessman Austin Magee. Joining them were four of the other six new contestants: Republicans state Sen. Stewart Cathey and state Rep. Gabe Firment, and Democrats lawyer Dan McKay and state Rep. Pat Moore.

Through the course of the questions and their opening and closing statements, McKay demonstrated himself as the least informed and most out-of-touch with the district’s sentiments (judged by party registration numbers favoring Republicans). For example, he erroneously said removing Social Security tax income caps would solve for the growing depletion of its trust fund, when in fact it, using static analysis only, only about half to two-thirds of the gap would be covered. This may have been due to the severe case of Trump Derangement Syndrome he exhibited, and its prominent symptom of suspended critical thinking abilities.

Senate polls reveal strategy, not state of race

Polling by Democrat Senate candidate Jamie Davis released to the public denotes more an effort to chip away at a national Republican fundraising advantage and bolster the state’s depleted Democrat bench than serving as an assessment whether Davis can win.

Twice now, the campaign has released polling data that purport to show Davis trailing GOP Rep. Julia Letlow by only four points, which would be a remarkable showing for a Democrat in a statewide election. The firm doing it, Hart Research, is a venerable firm that deals almost exclusively with Democrats but ranks in the top quarter or so firms under one study of quality in 2024 (although its record was based on only three presidential polls, none for a Senate contest).

This particular poll does have some problems. The sample size was a bit low (500) which accentuated that it didn’t apportion by geography and likely oversampled Democrats, positing an enthusiasm gap that might exist in more competitive states but unlikely does in the Bayou State. It also had two push questions in Davis’ favor that after their rendering actually showed him with 53 percent, nine percent additionally.

Curb Edwards legacy to close looming cliff

Some federal government relief on the issue of Medicaid, as well as some overdue diligence in the program, could help Louisiana to address tightening budget conditions.

Last week the state’s Revenue Estimating Conference essentially reaffirmed projections for the next few fiscal years. With tax cuts coming unless the Legislature lengthens the duration of the sales taxes to roll off, revenues are projected essentially to remain flat for fiscal years 2028-30. That means unless the Legislature reduces spending and/or consents to use of the Budget Stabilization Fund at least in FY27, the general fund budget may go into deficit given the impact of price inflation.

Use of the BSF may not be all that bad, as it sits at a near-record amount, but legislators can’t use it two years running. Happily, final budget production last year by the federal government invites reductions in Medicaid spending, and as does better diligence by states.

As previously noted, reforms encapsulated in that budget process will give the states strong incentive to cut back on this spending by the federal government limiting extra payments to states to encourage reimbursement rates for Medicaid to be only at the same level as for Medicare. They also create disincentives to levy taxes on providers that are used as a device to grab more federal dollars, which if applied to Louisiana would make the presumed deficit a bit worse independently of the fewer dollars spent on Medicaid because of lower rates.

But the state has to help itself, and over the past several years Louisiana has offended among the worst in refusing to do this, at least up until 2024. Research shows that since 2019, under the most plausible take-up rate (the proportion of Medicaid expansion-eligible clients who do enroll in it), the state has one of the highest rates of ineligible recipients, a shocking 62 percent, with in that period the stunning highest per capita upwards change (nearly doubling) of all the states, in that final term of Democrat former Gov. John Bel Edwards who practically begged anybody and everybody to sign up except the obviously wealthy.

Worse, this includes even the first year of unwinding after the artificial inflation of roles during the pandemic period. Not all of this comprised people flat-out ineligible for Medicaid; many eligible under regular Medicaid likely were misclassified as expansion-eligible, and given the perverse incentive that the expansion population receives a 90 percent federal match while those with lower incomes and sicker receive get matched about 25 percent lower in Louisiana, states pay less by carelessness in categorizing recipients.

In part, that explains why Louisiana in 2024 paid out only an estimated $90 million extra. But if all of the ineligibles were otherwise qualified in no way – and remember the winding-down already largely had been accomplished by the end of that period who were all ineligible under regular standards – it would have been closer to $250 million. It’s not difficult for that figure to be zero – several states managed that, and neighboring Oklahoma had a misclassification rate of only one percent.

 Using data for the upcoming 2028 rate equalization assuming Louisiana will make up two percent of the total Medicaid population nationally and its having a (among the highest of states) regular reimbursement rate of 65 percent (it varies among states), the state with great diligence in eligibility determinations could save $600 million annually by then. That would solve for and then some any predicted budgetary shortfall. It’s low-hanging policy fruit and should be pursued.

Coming Medicaid reimbursement changes good for LA

The good news is the alleged bad news about Medicaid changes is good news for Louisianans.

One reform encapsulated in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill knocks out a loophole that disfavored Medicare patients over those on Medicaid, increased the number of less-valuable interventions, and distorted private sector pricing. At the tail end of the Democrat Pres. Barack Obama Administration to encourage greater Medicaid enrollment including sucking in states to accept expansion (which Louisiana foolishly followed), the federal government began subsidizing state Medicaid plans to boost rates. Often, states reimbursed at rates below commercial charges and even Medicare’s, which could reduce the supply of providers that would lower the amount of care to the Medicaid population.

This wealth transfer from federal taxpayers to states also was supplemented in most states by allowing them to levy provider taxes and have straight-up government appropriations count as matching monies. These policies facilitated boosting of spending on Medicaid to prop up rates to commercial levels, which could be double or more Medicaid rates. For example, for Louisiana’s managed care organizations that provide insurance for almost all of the non-waiver Medicaid population – the vast majority of Medicaid clients – for hospitals all of state-directed payments, provider taxes, and (for Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center New Orleans) intergovernmental transfers are used to peg Medicaid rates at or near commercial rates.

As election looms, Shreveport promising higher pay

You can tell it’s election season in Shreveport when pay raises for all coexists with a budget that looks as if it’s running on fumes.

Last week, the Republican Mayor Tom Arceneaux Administration presented a preliminary piece of the city’s 2027 budget. After having previously announced a round of pay hikes concentrating on public safety commencing before the next budget cycle, here comes another. Actually, two.

One will focus on issues of salary compression, which occurs when starting wages creep upwards without periodic adjustments to salary for existing employees, meaning relatively speaking green employees make more than seasoned. As well, Arceneaux’s last budget unwisely hiked city pay at the lowest levels to a minimum wage of $15 per hour, exacerbating the compression as well as inducing budgetary strain with millions of dollars in new recurring costs.

Landrieu next LA vanity presidential aspirant

Don’t look now, but it looks like Louisiana has another vanity project running for president, this time in the form of Democrat former Lt. Gov. and New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu.

The state occasionally experiences a credible politician (meaning not Prisoner #28213-034) taking a Quixotic stab at the country’s top office. Republican former Gov. Bobby Jindal’s attempt for 2016 falls outside this category, because he would have had a real chance after beginning a populist turn in the last couple of years of his governorship had not the most unimpeachably conservative populist of all time GOP Pres. Donald Trump trumped Jindal and other competitive Republicans with his outsider and semi-celebrity status. He was, for a while, a serious candidate.

Jindal actually had a really good shot for the nomination in 2012, but demurred. Instead, that year Louisiana sent forth a former GOP governor as a novelty candidate, Buddy Roemer. He got sucked into this idea that a major party could form on a temporary basis and make someone like him competitive. Of course it didn’t happen.

Spin detracts from fixing Caddo jail overcrowding

Political spin reaches its full rotational velocity during election season, as comments about the overcrowded Caddo Correctional Center illustrate that distract from the fact this problem stems from prosecutorial choices, not from law enforcement.

No, it’s not so much that burgeoning Shreveport police arrests keep the CCC “bursting at the seams,” although obviously that volume is a significant contributor without which it wouldn’t have the opportunity to inflate. That statement comes from Wayne Smith, Shreveport Police Department chief, whose boss Republican Mayor Tom Arceneaux this fall faces spirited competition to retain his job. The more Smith talks up SPD vigilance, the more it pats Arceneaux’s back as the election looms.

Yet Smith could ramp up arrests even more and it wouldn’t be a crowding problem, according to a 2023 report of the Caddo Parish Criminal Justice Task Force. It discovered a 40 percent growth in the pretrial population even as arrests declined from 2012 to 2022. It saw as the cause the median bail amount rising over 2.5 times, explained by an increase in felony arrests, from 2014 to 2022, and a 144 percent increase in days from a court case’s opening to its disposition, thought to be a result of staffing shortages which delay transmission of case materials.

BC budget subject to stormy weather ahead

Bossier City put forth a solid 2027 budget, despite a few dark clouds ahead, and perhaps a bit too optimistic.

This week, the City Council held a budget information session, where Chief Administrative Office Shane Cheatham presented it publicly. The plan concentrated on maintaining core services and continuation of existing ones with a 3.71 percent bump upwards in general fund spending to nearly $86 million. As it is, that increase is driven almost entirely by a predicted rise in sales tax collections.

Which might flash one sign of trouble. It forecasts that property tax revenues actually suffer a tiny decline, meaning resales of property would increase at the margin at best and bring little in the way of new higher valued property into service. In other words, this indicates stagnation economically with little upward movement in population.