It’s true, a month out from party primary elections, it’s uncertain which of three serious Republican candidates will advance to an inevitable runoff. And there’s a polling-based reason for that for which a little historical data and common sense can address partially to give a better idea who’s likely to be part of that duo.
In the last several days, the campaign for Treas. John Fleming released one, and two others have come from other organizations, although there are no details as to who paid for these. Rep. Julia Letlow was named the leader in those, while the Fleming campaign had him on top with incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy running second. The other polls had him running third.
This continues a pattern where campaigns release polls favorable to their candidate, which may be why Cassidy’s camp hasn’t released any recently. None of the most recent trio had him at better than 26 percent, which is abysmal for a sitting senator who by himself already has spent probably at least $10 million on his reelection (as of the end of the year; the most recent numbers through the first quarter of 2026 will be available later this week) and has had surrogate political action committees as well churning out cash on his behalf.
