Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards
shouldn’t break his arm patting himself on the back. His latest
poll numbers do nothing to remove his underdog status for reelection.
Southern Media Opinion Research released a survey asking
for the popularity of several state political figures and opinion on a few
issues. Three prominent national Republicans from Louisiana polled between
45-55 percent approval, but Edwards topped them at 65 percent. One, Sen. John Kennedy who
drew 54 percent, some speculate may run against Edwards in 2019.
But history has demonstrated only the foolhardy
extrapolate polling numbers not at the extremes to electoral strength.
Disregarding that things can change in a hurry even to make very high or low
numbers not indicative of future electoral performance – witness the
sky-high ratings of former Pres. George
H. W. Bush yet his losing reelection fewer than two years later – approval ratings
occur in isolation, while elections do not. As a case in point, former Pres. Barack
Obama’s number stayed under 50 percent for most of his first term, yet because
the GOP put up a relatively weak candidate, he managed to score a second term.
SMOR pollster Bernie Pinsonat pointed out a
related factor, in the more specific case of Louisiana: ratings depend upon
talk of taxes and spending reflected in the news. Little of that has gone on at
the state level since the end of the second legislative special session for Edwards,
while during the polling period that’s all that was going at the federal level for
the Republicans mentioned. Do a poll six months from now after weeks of talk of
raising taxes in Louisiana and, unless he goes completely against type, Edwards
will come in much lower.
By then the campaigning for governor will kick off, over
which Edwards remains quite vulnerable. For example, say Kennedy does get in.
Can you imagine the headwinds Edwards will have to face:
· While all Edwards has talked about, and helped
do during his term, is raise taxes, Kennedy can talk about how he
cut taxes at the national level.
· As Edwards’ re-appointees, former and present,
to government positions find themselves mired
in controversies about which he could have anticipated, Kennedy can suggest
how this invalidates the “Honor Code” image Edwards blanketed across the state
when he ran in 2015.
· Kennedy can point out how Edwards
hiked taxes over $200 million to expand Medicaid while many suffer under
skyrocketing health insurance rates, backed by Edwards through his support of
the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), and contrast that to his own positions of
asking
Medicaid recipients to pay their fair share and his vote to repeal the Obamacare
requirement that people must buy health insurance.
Nobody seriously would trade Kennedy’s positioning
here for Edwards’. Or with any other prospective candidate: that no fewer than the
state’s attorney general, two U.S. House of Representatives members, and a U.S.
senator seem interested in Edwards’ post demonstrate his extraordinary weakness.
And as soon as one or more of them begin to campaign in earnest, no matter how
many ads Edwards tries to run backing his candidacy, his approval rating will
drop, and significantly.
Not that the numbers on issues worked out very
well for Edwards as it was. The public seemed divided as to desiring more spending
cuts or higher taxes or whether to support Obamacare, and a majority saw the
state, with him at the helm, headed in the wrong direction.
About the only genuinely good news for Edwards
from this poll is he didn’t not come close to treading water or worse. That
result would have signaled game over right now.
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