Suit against BC Council may set off hidden bomb

With lawsuits and petitions flying around, it’s not a great time to be one of the Bossier City Council graybeards or their puppy dog – and sitting on potentially a huge bomb waiting to explode over an incident where graybeards’ actions cost the city tens of millions of dollars.

For months, the Council majority bloc of graybeards Republicans David Montgomery and Jeff Free, Democrat Bubba Williams, and no party Jeff Darby, plus their newcomer lapdog Republican Vince Maggio, have fought tooth and nail to prevent having to follow the city charter and schedule a referendum on a three-term lifetime and retroactive limit to elected officials (all but Maggio couldn’t run for reelection if the referendum succeeded). They even directed City Attorney Charles Jacobs to file with the judiciary a plea for the courts to invalidate the duly certified petition of registered voters triggering the Council to call an election on the matter. On multiple occasions all five of them violated the charter by voting against resolutions to do that.

The rearguard action to date only has caused them more trouble. In trying to cut off the head of the term limits movement, spearheaded by an informal group called the Bossier Term Limits Coalition that the city sued (apparently against the wishes of GOP Mayor Tommy Chandler and Republican Councilors Chris Smith and Brian Hammons), the bloc instead saw more heads of it mushroom into existence. The original petition just had a handful of individuals involved, yet now the Coalition reports several times that number active seeking signatures approving of the same language and maintains at least two locations gathering signatures. It’s possible that the group will gather an amount of signatures surpassing the charter-mandated one-third of the number of votes in the previous mayoral election before the court even rules on the validity of the existing petition challenged on the basis of technicalities, where the new petition avoids those ambiguities.

Bad school diploma policy needs quick change

Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards converted on an eleventh-hour chance to roll back in one respect education reform in Louisiana, after a long eight years of playing defense.

Coming into office with the support of special interests opposed to the reforms which emphasized choice, accountability, and standards, Edwards made little legislative headway in turning back any of these implemented earlier in the decade. His presence in the Governor’s Mansion, however, did block continued reform such as creating a money-follows-the-student funding distribution which probably could have drawn legislative majorities or, which happened twice, preventing state aid for students with disabilities to attend schools of their choice.

He had help from pliable Republicans House Speaker Clay Schexnayder and Senate Pres. Page Cortez, who tried to bottle up such bills, but he had little luck in reversing reform in any meaningful way. Except for now with the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, which this week forced the most significant retreat over the past eight years.

Reports show Bossier legislators gaining traction

The last batch of campaign finance reports prior to this week’s election reveal for candidates running in Bossier Parish that existing legislators may be pulling away from their opponents, all in contests that will be settled this weekend.

This last span of raising and spending importantly gives clues as to the direction of a candidacy at a crucial period. Unlike with the governor’s race, where five to two weeks out most voters have made up their minds, other contests remain in flux as these typically have had little or no information delivered not only by media and sources independent of campaigns but also by the campaigns themselves. Ramping up efforts in this period produces the most impact. Further, donations in this period tend to display a front runner effect, where gifts go to candidates who donors believe will win so they can have access to whom they think eventually will win.

By that metric, Republicans state Sen. Robert Mills in District 36 and state Rep. Dodie Horton in District 9 took best advantage of their opportunities. Mills outraised his opponent GOP Bossier Parish School Board member Adam Bass by $50,000 and outspent him by $130,000. Both have about $100,000 left for the stretch run. Mills has leaned more towards using electronic means to entice voters, while Bass has taken a more hands-on approach without much indirect voter contact. A Senate district is of such size that either approach could work, but the latter takes much more campaigning effort.

Turnout likely down due to top job candidates

Perceived lesser quality of gubernatorial candidates except for the front runner explains why voting in Louisiana’s contest for its top job likely will decline markedly this cycle.

The latest statewide figures for registration by party and race are Democrats at 38.7 percent, Republicans at 33.8 percent, and others at 28.5 percent, with whites comprising 62.8 percent, blacks 31.2 percent, and others 6 percent. This contrasts with 2019 figures at the same time of year of 42.4 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans, and 27.6 other/no parties, and whites being 63.5 percent, blacks 31.3 percent, and others 5.2 percent. Reflecting the population drain throughout the two terms of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards, only 8,000 more voters were registered now than four years ago.

However, early in-person voting was down considerably compared to 2019, after years of increasing proportions. It was off by nearly a fifth, or 66,000. Louisiana has had early no-excuse voting since 2008, and throughout this period analysts have grappled with understanding year-over-year changes in numbers and proportions in terms of whether these would predict eventual turnout and whether any party benefitted. It has been assumed that a learning curve existed for voters which caused largely a substitution effect; i.e., almost all early voters would have voted on election day, but increases from similar election to election were confounded by the learning curve of more voters realizing they could vote and then taking advantage of voting early. But dropping off in early voting, and considerably, unmistakably denotes a lack of enthusiasm compared to the previous similar election, as it seems unlikely that those intending to vote would delay deliberately their vote choice.

Reports suggest some Bossier Police Jury changes

Campaign finance disclosures, or sometime lack of these, give some clues as to whether wholesale changes may come to the Bossier Parish Police Jury's composition staring next year.

While all but one incumbent chose to run for reelection, and a few didn’t draw an opponent, according to reports that detail spending and activity three challengers stand a decent chance of displacing an incumbent starting this week, and at least a couple more have an outside chance of doing so. The reports ten days prior to the general election cover an important period in local campaigns that demonstrate the seriousness of a candidacy and tactics used. For this level of races, the most effective campaigning is door-to-door canvassing, followed by direct mailing, eye-level signage (yard signs better than billboards), canvassing before groups such as at high school football games, display print advertising, and lastly electronic means such as ads and texting.

The reports show some vulnerable incumbents. District 1, with three challengers to Republican Bob Brotherton, has the most candidates but not much active campaigning. Only two have filed reports, with the incumbent not being one of them. That doesn’t mean campaigning isn’t going on – reports are necessary only if there is a donation the exceeds $200 or more than $2,500 spent – but that it is occurring at most at a low level, it at all.

Edwards bypass foiled in part by progressive DA

Looks like 1^st Judicial District Attorney James Stewart will have to forgo any future George Soros bucks as he joined Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry, Democrat 19^th Judicial District Attorney Hillar Moore III, and several other district attorneys in defeating a gambit backed by Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards.

This week, these prosecutors reached a settlement with the Louisiana Board of Pardons and Committee on Parole over its prospective clemency hearings concerning almost the entirety of Louisiana’s death row. Contrary to existing rules, the Board had scheduled to conduct reviews of 20 inmates under capital sentences beginning Oct. 13 through Nov. 27, with perhaps more afterwards. This prompted the suit from Landry and the DAs from all districts with an inmate on the list, except for no party 4^th DA Steve Tew, Republican 21^st DA Scott Perrilloux, and 41^st DA Democrat Jason Williams.

Edwards this spring had signaled, after years of strategic obfuscation and caginess, that he opposed capital punishment. This dog whistle activated anti-death penalty advocates to flood the Board with the requests. The Board, after first refusing to breach its rules, acquiesced to a request from Edwards to conduct the reviews, drawing upon an ambiguity in the rules that allowed the governor to make such requests at any time, even though Landry’s office had opined that this exception was overridden by the scheduling rules except in cases of imminent execution.

LA helps beat left's privileging boycott tactic

The strategy of economic boycotts from the far left aimed at jurisdictions like Louisiana over social issues officially ran out of steam with California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom’s quiet repeal of a ban on paid employee state travel to states who rejected empowering individuals of certain characteristics at the expense of others, emphasizing the moral poverty of the left’s argument.

California was the first of several states, by gubernatorial executive orders, to enact this and similar measures involving potential commercial activity between a state and others who passed laws allegedly discriminating against politically-favored constituencies. For example, California initially issued a fatwa on state travel to North Carolina because the latter passed a law mandating that people of their natal sex or altered sex when using single-sex restrooms to use those corresponding to their current sex.

At first isolated, North Carolina eventually did away with that law having little to do with California’s action, but because leftists and special interests through a combination of suasion and bullying activated some economic interests to join the boycott. Fortunately, that didn’t cow a number of other jurisdictions like Louisiana – now over half the states – to pass laws refusing to privilege the agendas of such groups. Since then, corporations and nonprofit entities have realized they lose business and opportunities to interact with all community interests and walked back from highly-politicized public pronouncements and actions signaling solidarity with the actions of the groups attempting to gain privilege.

Surprise ouster may make Scalise Speaker

Republican Rep. Steve Scalise’s moment may have arrived with the ouster of GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the U.S. of Representatives.

Hours ago, the House voted to remove McCarthy as speaker at the behest of Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz. He and seven other Republicans joined all Democrats to succeed, which as Republicans had only a five-member majority meant only the second vote ever to vacate worked.

That parliamentary move existed only because McCarthy’s retained the post tenuously. At the beginning of the year, after 15 rounds of inconclusive voting for its holder, as part of an agreement to win enough votes McCarthy accepted being restored into the rules this privileged maneuver that allowed any single member to ask this. Consistent House conservatives, who held up his victory, felt this gave them leverage in case McCarthy didn’t adhere to other aspects of the agreement that would ensure conservative input into governing the chamber.

Wilson, 4 Dwarves debate doesn't change race

The song remains the same as Wilson and the Four Dwarves battled among themselves futilely to keep Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry from an expected eventual gubernatorial victory.

Not a band but gubernatorial aspirants Democrat former cabinet member Shawn Wilson; independent trial lawyer Hunter Lundy; and Republicans state Sen. Sharon Hewitt, Treas. John Schroder, and former gubernatorial appointee Steven Waguespack – all met in a candidate forum for the office televised by the Louisiana Public Broadcasting consortium of stations and affiliates. Noticeably absent was Landry, who the latest polls make the clear front runner, followed distantly by Wilson, with the other four unable to crack single digits of support.

For that reason, any analysis of the efforts insofar as specific answers to issues is meaningless without Landry’s responses. General impressions of each will suffice from the forum that won’t change the dynamics of the contest that will put Landry and Wilson into a runoff, with Landry the clear favorite.

LA map likely to stay in force through 2024

The odds now are that Louisiana will have 2024 elections to Congress using the same districts as last year, as a result of a recent court decision, and maybe until 2032.

Last week, a three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals put the brakes on the headlong rush Louisiana Middle District Judge Shelly Dick through judicial means has tried to bully the state into having a map with two majority-minority districts among the six districts for its representatives. Earlier this year, a surprise ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court gave race primary status among reapportionment criteria, reviving a case heard by Dick a year earlier that sought to throw out the state’s plan that featured a single M/M district in a state where nearly a third of the population claims at least in part black ancestry.

That original case placing an injunction on the state’s map spawned another to draw a new plan. This new case depends upon the older one being upheld as to whether the stoppage was proper. Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry objected, arguing that the excessive speed imposed by Dick prevented a majoritarian solution that historically the judiciary has preferred, especially in complex and politicized cases involving reapportionment.