The last batch of campaign finance reports prior to this week’s election reveal for candidates running in Bossier Parish that existing legislators may be pulling away from their opponents, all in contests that will be settled this weekend.
This last span of raising and spending importantly gives clues as to the direction of a candidacy at a crucial period. Unlike with the governor’s race, where five to two weeks out most voters have made up their minds, other contests remain in flux as these typically have had little or no information delivered not only by media and sources independent of campaigns but also by the campaigns themselves. Ramping up efforts in this period produces the most impact. Further, donations in this period tend to display a front runner effect, where gifts go to candidates who donors believe will win so they can have access to whom they think eventually will win.
By that metric, Republicans state Sen. Robert Mills in District 36 and state Rep. Dodie Horton in District 9 took best advantage of their opportunities. Mills outraised his opponent GOP Bossier Parish School Board member Adam Bass by $50,000 and outspent him by $130,000. Both have about $100,000 left for the stretch run. Mills has leaned more towards using electronic means to entice voters, while Bass has taken a more hands-on approach without much indirect voter contact. A Senate district is of such size that either approach could work, but the latter takes much more campaigning effort.
Horton appeared to have even more momentum over her opponent GOP businessman Chris Turner. While he raised only around $10,000 and hardly spent anything, Horton pulled in $60,000 and spent most of that, leaving her with almost $100,000 for the home stretch or about $25,000 more than him. She spent on both instruments of direct voter contact and indirect means through electronic media.
Another sitting legislator but running for a different office, Senate District 31, Republican state Rep. Alan Seabaugh also seized an advantage over his opponent, GOP retired basketball coach Mike McConathy. Seabaugh raked in close to $60,000, beating McConathy by about $20,000, but drawing on a huge war chest shelled out over $170,000 or about $100,000 more than McConathy. Seabaugh has more than double McConathy’s $120,000 available for the run home. He spent across all campaigning platforms while McConathy relied mostly on television advertising.
This contest, however, can’t be judged entirely on the candidate’s efforts because so much outside money is pouring into it. Here also Seabaugh seems to have a leg up, as particularly Americans for Prosperity Louisiana and the Louisiana Committee for a Conservative Majority have sent multiple mailers, with the Louisiana Republican Party chipping in. McConathy has had mailers on his behalf from Watchdog PAC, a dark money group recently taken over by Baton Rouge Republican maverick Scott Wilfong who through another organization has campaigned on McConathy’s behalf, and Keep the Lights On PAC, a climate alarmist dark money group that spent heavily to elect far leftist Democrat Davante Lewis to the Public Service Commission.
Donor data reveal that Turner is drawing money disproportionately from unions and the Bossier political establishment. McConathy also is getting action from the Bossier good old boys and additionally much from trial lawyers.
Finally, in the one parish contest without a sitting legislator involved, recent reports show a continuing divergency trend in the House District 2 contest between Democrat Caddo Parish Commissioner Stevem Jackson and Democrat Caddo Parish School Board member Terence Vinson. Jackson leans heavily on a more traditional direct voter outreach approach, while Jackson spends more and heavily on electronic-based indirect contact.
The outcome of this one should be telling. At the House level, typically Vinson’s approach is the most effective, and Jackson faces reputational problems. So, if Jackson’s higher spending and more electronic-media based strategy works, it could signal changing dynamics in campaigning.
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