LA congressional donation record no surprise

If anything, had Louisiana congressional candidates not pulled in record dollars of campaign donations that would have been unexpected.

In sum, this election cycle has produced the highest total ever given to candidacies, in aggregate $74 million. Yet this should surprise no one, because of several factors.

 First, start with this election cycle offering up two competitive House of Representatives races, a competitive Senate contest, and not having a presidential contest to siphon money from congressional contests. Races believed to be close suck in more money. The last time this many hotly-contested cropped up was in 2014, and inflation plus changes in some donation ceilings would encourage more giving. It also helps that two candidates, one in each of the hotly-contested House races, are willing to put considerable own-resources into their campaigns, as did one Senate contestant.

Second, consider how the prominence of the delegation has changed. In the previous midterm cycle, Republican Rep. Steve Scalise held the minority whip spot. Four years later, Scalise has received a big promotion to majority leader. More dramatically, GOP Rep. Mike Johnson came from the back of the pack to become Speaker of the House. This pair constituting the two most powerful individuals in the chamber makes them each absolute magnets for money. Consider that already (basically through July) Johnson has raised almost $21 million this cycle with Scalise picking up nearing $11 million, as compared to a final 2022 haul of Johnson’s $1.3 million and Scalise’s $18.5 million with the expectation then he would become majority leader (if not speaker) in 2023.

Third, the overall national competitiveness also drives more money into both the pockets of Scalise and Johnson, as well as into the Senate contest. With both Senate and House control in the balance, donors step up.

The two GOP leaders get funds from across the country, not just because they will remain in positions of party power even if forced into the minority (although early indications being even if that did happen, they have good chances to reclaim majority party status in 2028). By way of example, of itemized individual donations, which comprise about $8.4 million of Johnson’s donations, only just over a quarter million of that comes from Louisiana residents, while almost none of his approaching $9 million in authorized and other committee come from Louisiana-based committees or individuals.

National donors give big to these leaders in part because then the leaders can spread that around to other campaigns in need of resources at a moment’s notice. The $1.6 million Johnson already has doled out should accelerate through year’s end.

Then there’s the Senate race. Republican nominee Rep. Julia Letlow has attracted a bit over half of number of donors and a bit under half of dollars donated of her $1.3 million in itemized donations from out of state, and of her roughly $4.7 million in authorized and other committee donations most come from in state.

Her opponent Democrat Jamie Davis has raised only about $2 million, but almost all of that comes from out of state as part of a (largely overenthusiastically fantasy-driven) national effort trying to propel Davis into at least marginally competitive status. Almost three-quarters of his donations are not itemized, reflecting pass-throughs from national organizations bundling nationwide small-dollar givers, and a good portion of what is itemized comes from beyond Louisiana’s borders. When all is said and done, despite at this point raising only about a third of Letlow’s totals, in raw numbers he’s likely to have more out-of-state donors and dollars than her.

Fourth, there was spirited intra-party competition for the nomination Letlow bagged. Note that her relatively high levels came in response to spirited competition with GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy and Republican state Treas. John Fleming, who combined (more from the latter) spent over $19 million.

All of these factors combine to make the running total setting a record anticipated. The way things stand, a final figure of over $80 million wouldn’t be a shock.