Hot issues make upcoming session less predictable

Remarks by legislative leaders shows this upcoming legislative session likely will develop into the most contentious of this term – and not because of Democrats’ agenda.

When Republican Gov. Jeff Landry and the current crop of GOP legislators kicked off their terms in 2024, they largely were on the same page, such was the consensus around the excesses – both in priorities pursued and blocked – of the Democrat former Gov. John Bel Edwards Administration and the factions he empowered in the Legislature. That continued almost unabated in 2025, with perhaps a slight fraying.

However, 2026 looks to expose some significant fractures among Republicans, from the Governor’s Mansion on down to backbenchers. A vast gulf exists between the lot of them and Democrats, of course, with the minority party so enfeebled that it’s unlikely anything a majority of that party wants will make it into law. Yet several issues may divide Republicans, along axes of the leadership vs. Landry and a significant number of GOP legislators (particularly in the House) or the leadership and Landry vs. many in the party.

Bossier Council sidelines BAC, ups Boardwalk ante

While this week’s Bossier City Council meeting drew plenty of attention to the fate of the Bossier Arts Council, it undertook a much more far-reaching action.

The Council, after a two-week delay, voted formally to evict the BAC from the its city-owned digs as well as cut off any contracts or grants from the city. Another ordinance disallowed any nongovernmental organization from receiving city grants unless it did not appear on the Louisiana Legislative Auditor’s noncompliance list, issued annually in February.

Practically speaking, this means that the BAC will have to vamoose by Mar. 24 and it loses its contract to manage the East Bank Plaza, worth $50,000 annually (unless the Council shockingly reverses itself on second reading), as well as any opportunity to receive grants from the city for now. It already has drawn on in its entirety its $80,000 grant for this year. To be eligible for a future grant, it would have to get into compliance with the LLA, meaning it completes an audit for each of the last three years.

LA 2026 Senate race looking like 2008 CD 4 contest

Excuse Republican Treas. John Fleming if he wants to party like it’s 2008, because to date there is considerable congruence between the election that introduced him to Congress the next year and the one that could propel him to the Senate in 2027.

In the most recent poll fewer than three months out from the GOP primary election, Fleming held a lead of nearly ten points on his closest rival Republican Rep. Julia Letlow, who was up a few points on GOP incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy. Letlow’s and Cassidy’s numbers tracked similarly to those of a poll released a few days earlier, while Fleming had expanded his share by several points.

Cassidy’s campaign dynamics are such that he really only can make a runoff by attacking and flipping votes from Letlow, which eventually may not be enough to succeed yet will detach voters from her that don’t want Cassidy, mainly for a series of poor decisions, and therefore will settle on Fleming, who at this juncture with certainty would defeat Cassidy in a runoff and probably win over Letlow if, benefitting from the endorsements of Republican Pres. Donald Trump and GOP Gov. Jeff Landry, she hangs on despite an effective ethics attack deployed by Cassidy surrogates. The reason this is a realistic, if not the most likely, scenario is because Fleming has gone through this before and come out on top.

System should complete welcome LSU change

You win some, you lose some with the Louisiana State University Board of Supervisors, who recently took a belated two steps forward and one step back in admissions policy for the state’s flagship university.

Last week at the Board’s bi-monthly meeting it adjusted LSU’s admission standards. Since 2018, the Board has been out of compliance with Board of Regents standards by granting admission to a greater proportion of students scoring below a 22 on the ACT standardized test (in other words, those in the bottom fourth-sevenths of all takers) than Board rules permit. For the past eight years the Regents spinelessly allowed LSU to flout the rules.

But now, the pendulum has swung back – at least halfway. Starting for next fall, taking the ACT will be required for admission for students with a high school grade point average of below 3.5, and then for all the year after. In the past it was optional, so for those students not taking it (or not choosing to submit a score to LSU) they were evaluated on mostly subjective criteria.

Arceneaux campaign receives good, bad news

Republican Mayor Tom Arceneaux acquired another arrow in his quiver for reelection, even as he picked up his most serious challenger to date for that.

Last week, S&P Global announced a change in outlook for Shreveport’s credit rating. Maintaining its current call of BBB+ – the lowest investment grade category – it did cite a better outlook of “stable” rather than “negative.” The latter means a downgrade was more likely than an upgrade, which would have meant higher borrowing costs in the future, with the former meaning no change either way anticipated.

This declaration in and of itself doesn’t affect anything substantively, but it carries beneficial positive symbolism for Arceneaux’s quest, especially coming from the rationale stating why the rating agency made the change. The city has maintained a commitment to its 8 percent operating reserve target in the general fund, which he fought for in the 2026 budget, against some pressure to dip more into it for increased spending.

Poll shows Cassidy still trapped in death spiral

The death spiral of Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy’s Senate career continues, according to a new poll. Worse for him, there’s little he can do about it.

The firm Quantus Insights released results polling the contest, where he faces major challengers for the GOP nomination in the forms of Treas. John Fleming and Rep. Julia Letlow, from earlier this week. They show Fleming at 34 percent, Letlow at 25 percent, and Cassidy at 20 percent, leaving another 20 percent or so undecided.

It’s hard to shoot the messenger on this one. The firm isn’t affiliated with a campaign – not that this disqualifies such a poll, for as long as the protocol (question orderings and their wordings and answers) is unbiased, the sampling frame reasonable and sufficiently large, and the contact methods of respondents can produce that desired sampling frame, it (barring unhappy randomization, i.e. a bad sample) will produce valid and reliable results for the population of voters – and this appears to be a quality poll (although a bit vague on the specific sampling procedure and claiming it captured “likely” voters, including those unaffiliated that historically have voted for Republicans as both GOP registrants and those registered without affiliation may participate in the primary, without spelling out that procedure). Unless it drew that one-out-of-twenty bad sample, this is reality.

Bills to expand constitutional rights aim true

 

A frequent proponent of individual rights for their defense has cued up a couple of bills to expand these in the upcoming session of the Louisiana Legislature.

 

Republican state Rep. Danny McCormick has prefiled HB 94, which would prohibit “red flag” laws in the state. He also has prefiled HB 99, which would allow carry of firearms, even concealed, by non-law enforcement individuals on a college campus.

A red flag law is one that allows judicial interdiction to prevent someone from possessing or carrying a firearm, whether concealed, on some kind of assessment that judges the person dangerous in some fashion, typically for reasons of presumed mental health. Advocates argue that random shootings by someone not in possession of the faculties could be prevented with these laws on the books.

The problem is, research into such shootings finds little to support that judicial officials have the ability to predict the future on this, which would produce a monstrously-high amount of false positives that end up depriving an enormous number of people of their constitutional rights (which also may be politically-driven), where even mentally-ill people are highly likely not to engage in this dangerous behavior. Moreover, there seems to be little relationship between such laws and observed benefits with the exception that such laws might deter suicides, and even to implement such a law requires the herculean task (and one smacking of the potential for civil liberties violations) of accurate gun registries.

Confirm big development win with water study

It looks like another economic development win for Republican Gov. Jeff Landry, and one that may pass muster with those concerned about resource-hungry industries that might hike prices to Louisianans.

This week, Landry confirmed a long-believed supposition that both Caddo and Bossier parishes were going to pick up some data center action. While the $12 billion in infrastructure Amazon has said it will spend on three such centers in the two parishes, that it estimates will create hundreds of permanent jobs nearing six figures in pay, is well short of the $27 billion Meta is spending on its Hyperion project in Richland Parish, it’s still quite a shot in the arm for a flailing Caddo economy and juicing the upswing in economic activity in Bossier.

Key to this are competitive measures that Landry and the Louisiana Legislature passed into law a couple of years ago, and also a commitment by the Landry Administration to expedite large projects. But as importantly, Louisiana holds resource advantages that many other states can’t match, such as abundant and inexpensive (fossil fuel) energy and ways to transport it.

Time to limit four-day instructional school week

If one Louisiana legislator has her way, school districts which don’t perform highly that contemplate but haven’t made the switch to a four-day a week of instruction will miss the boat – which, given the dynamics of which districts have chosen to pursue it, might be an idea whose time has come.

SB 82 by Republican state Sen. Beth Mizell would prohibit any school system that already doesn’t operate on a four-day a week from doing so unless it scores an ‘A’ in performance, requiring instruction five days a week (with holidays as exceptions). Only 15 have gone in this direction at present (one is planning to do that for academic year 2027). The minimum instruction time of over 63,000 minutes annually doesn’t change, although many districts have students spend more than that time in the classroom regardless of how many days a week incorporate instruction.

Should the bill become law, practically speaking that limits future conversions severely. This is as public schools become subject to a new scoring system stricter (and more realistic) than the one used through this year. Only 10 districts ranked as A as a result in simulation, but only nine would be eligible as Vernon Parish already has gone to the four-day schedule, so unless this changes 45 districts for now would be out of luck.

Bill to save bucks, not injure higher education

Louisiana yanking taxpayer dollars from select universities for select programs isn’t as deleterious to the concept of higher education at it might seem at first glance.

Republican state Rep. John Wyble has prefiled HB 229. The bill would prohibit allocations of state dollars in any form from going to low-earning outcome programs of study at state schools, as well as those from any local government, beginning in the summer of 2027.

A “low-earning outcome program of study” is defined by guidance from the federal government made at the beginning of this year. With the data it had in hand, it calculated the average earnings (over four years from several years ago) of a school’s graduates in various certificate programs, undergraduate majors, or graduate degrees, and declared those whose average fell below the average high school graduate’s salary for certifications and associate and bachelor degree awardees, or below the average college-degreed or certified salary for graduate degrees, would fit this category. In Louisiana, the former mark is around $32,200 and the latter about $51,000 in that time period.