Obamacare implosion to sink Landrieu chances further

Veteran political observer John Maginnis declared that the partial government shutdown of the first half of October produced no real political winners or losers among Louisiana federal government elected officials. He’s quite correct, but the real story is how this will be a non-issue compared to the ongoing issue and the reverberating ramifications of the internal contradictions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) on the fortunes of Senate candidates.

Maginnis notes that while polling data in Louisiana, from the Democrat-aligned firm Public Policy Polling, conducted toward the end of that period showed by 47-32 percent respondents were less likely to want to vote for GOP Senate candidate Rep. Bill Cassidy and gave incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu a 48-41 lead, data from the Republican-oriented firm Harper Polling revealed Landrieu led only 46-44 and 45 percent said they would vote for a Republican for Senate while just 41 percent for a Democrat. This poll, however, was conducted just before Oct. 1.

Interestingly, the PPP numbers actually improved for Cassidy from the middle of August, when he was supposedly down to Landrieu by 10 points and he gained a point in projected vote. Further, the latest still showed Landrieu could not crack 50 percent approval among voters; historically, incumbents who cannot do this a year from an election almost always end up losing. And this was with Cassidy rated unknown by 55 percent of voters and the 45 percent who ventured a likeability rating on Cassidy about split; typically, as quality challengers become better known, they gain proportionally more in liking than disliking among voters, to the detriment of the incumbent’s vote share.

Runoff dynamics for CD 5 favor Riser substantially

Now the question is whether political newcomer Vance McAllister can do it again, by defeating state Sen. Neil Riser in the runoff for the Congressional District 5 special election on Nov. 16. Chances are the same dynamics that led to his upset second-place showing in the general election will keep him out of the office.

McAllister won a runoff spot because in a general election field of 14, in an election that was standalone for many voters, he mobilized two constituencies large enough to get him over the 15 percent of the vote needed to capture it. One was the anti-politician crowd, especially incensed at the big spending that hallmarks the Pres. Barack Obama Administration that Congress (with too little Republican resistance to stop) continues to endorse, who looked for a credible non-politician to back. The other was people less reliably interested in politics but turned on by his affiliation with the family that stars in the reality television show Duck Dynasty, differentiating him from the other reliably conservative Republicans like Riser in the race. By apparently plowing hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own funds into the contest, much in the last week, he made himself visible enough to have those kinds of voters activated or aware he was out there.

But the lightning is unlikely to strike twice given the nature of the election will be different. He will have nearly triple his vote proportion, with a limited base on which to expand. Other Republicans in the race tried to position themselves as Washington outsiders, but they only got about 20 percent of the vote. Some may gravitate to McAllister, but others went with the other pair of candidates because they preferred more experience and their issue preferences. Many of them will sit it out or side with Riser. And it’s not likely that significantly more casual voters can be mobilized using the celebrity factor than were there for the general election.

LA legislative term limits continue to demonstrate value

The headline reads “Term limits have Louisiana politicians searching for new elections.” And that’s a good thing, despite that some contest that the overall term limits experience for Louisiana has been positive.

At the state level, the limits in question concern the three consecutive term limit for a legislator in the same office. It is diluted, because it allows limited members in one chamber to try to win election in the other, subverting to some degree the idea and allowing politicians to continue serving in an office nearly identical in power and scope. Because of this, interestingly the average length of continuous service in the Legislature at the beginning of 2004 for the typical senator, the last term before limits went into effect, was slightly shorter (just over 7 years) than in 2008, the first term affected by limits (almost 7¼) because of all that jumping.

(Keep in mind that now Pres. John Alario brought 36 years with him, skewing the average up by almost a point. When all was said and done, the 13 successful jumpers averaged a shade over 12 years in House experience, while the returning senators averaged just under 5 in their chamber. At the beginning of 2012, with 10 more jumpers successful – totaling now after a couple of early departures 21 of 39 – average years served by then nudged up almost a full year to over 8.)

Surplus spoken for; no increased spending from it

Cautious optimism may have sprouted from a recent estimate that Louisiana finished fiscal year 2013 nearly $163 million in the black, but caution dictates this money and other projected savings go to fulfilling an unusual legal requirement so fantasies of beefing up state spending remain just that.

On the heels of the production of the state budget for FY 2014, which gives expenditure totals close to what actually occurred  from July of last year through this past June, revenue estimates as of now made by Gov. Bobby Jindal’s Division of Administration show this surplus. Final numbers won’t be in until the end of the year, but this should not drift much lower. Shortly before then, the Revenue Estimating Conference will meet to produce the official numbers that may be used for budgeting for FY 2015 next year.

Any leftover surplus can be used for just a small selection of purposes, all of which deal with long-term expenditures. But even as legislators mused about what to do with it, state Sen. Jack Donahue had the right idea from the eligible purposes – put the money into the Budget Stabilization Fund, the state’s savings account that can be used to offset state-generated revenue declines – even if he and the state really have little choice in the matter.

Surprise Riser runoff opponent rides anti-politician wave

Perhaps we should have seen this coming when the early voting totals showed little interest, but while practically every prognostication concerning the Fifth Congressional District special election focused only on some combination of state Sen. Neil Riser and any of a few other candidates with electoral office-holding backgrounds, one name that seldom came up because of his unknown quality was businessman Vance McAllister. And then the odd dynamics of this contest intervened to put these two Republican businessmen into the runoff.

With about a third of the vote, Riser moves on to the Nov. 16 runoff. But joining him about 14 points behind, a couple ahead of the third-place Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo, was McAllister. Turnout appears only to have been little more than 20 percent, of which half voted for candidates other than this pair moving on.

That low turnout was key for McAllister’s surprise besting of Mayo, three state representatives, and a Public Service commissioner, for of these others, he appealed to the narrowest constituency most intensely interested in the election. Not that some of the other candidates wanted it to turn out this way, because they wanted at least part of that constituency.

Donations, demographics point to Riser, Mayo CD 5 runoff

This Saturday the winner of the special election for Louisiana’s Fifth Congressional District is unlikely to be determined, but in that case we may have a pretty good idea of who that might be eventually.

The sprawling territory is being contested by over a dozen people, and despite its short campaign window they have attracted well over a million dollars in donations. Way out in front, each having raised a bit over a half million each, are Republicans state Sen. Neil Riser and state Rep. Jay Morris. With a little less than half of their totals is Republican Public Service Commissioner Clyde Holloway, a former member of Congress. At half of that again sits state Democrat Rep. Robert Johnson. Less than half of his was Democrat Weldon Russell, a member of the state House from 1984-88, and dragging the rear of those who raised anything significant enough to report was Monroe Mayor and Democrat Jamie Mayo, who had raised about a thirtieth of either Morris or Riser.

Which means that Mayo is a good bet to make the almost inevitable general election runoff. The district has about 33 percent black registration but a history of black turnout trailing white, by 5 percent in the last regular congressional election. Given this election may not even hit one-third of the last election’s 68 percent overall turnout, according to early voting numbers, that gap might increase even more, especially as no other races of consequence are on the ballot (sorry, Ouachita Parish Justice of the Peace candidates, the one guy who filed for mayor of Glenmora, etc.) and none that might stimulate black turnout.

Voters should reject Caddo tax renewal, looser term limits

Saturday, Caddo Parish officials are wanting voters to approve both parish-wide measures on the ballot. The public needs to resist the blandishment.

One is a renewal for 20 years of a 1.75 mill property tax used for capital items. Even though the parish sits on reserves that exceed greatly the projected over $23 million this would draw, in theory it’s defensible to have this revenue stream available. Many of the projected uses listed by the parish are worthy, although some represent non-critical enhancements that financial prudence dictates should not be financed by debt when you have that choice.

But two disturbing aspects of the requested renewal should disturb voters. One is the failure to ask for a rate that represented any rollback from the expiring rate. Louisiana’s Constitution dictates that whenever property reassessments that occur every four years during the years of presidential elections that, unless a governing authority acts otherwise, property tax receipts remain flat overall by having millage rates decrease if necessary.

Suit adds to growing conservative doubts about Caldwell

While the jackpot justice quest by the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority – East is well known, another such spin of the wheel by a school district and teacher union threatens to land Atty. Gen. Buddy Caldwell in hot electoral water.

Months ago, the Louisiana Supreme Court ruled that the Minimum Foundation Program could not be used to fund the Louisiana Scholarship Program that paid for education at private schools for qualifying students. As part of that ruling, it engaged in a bit of judicial activism by redefining the Constitution to allow resolutions as legislative instruments to be treated as laws for procedural purposes, which in essence meant the resolution to fund the MFP of last year was invalid. Because of another series of events, this meant the formula reverted back to that of 2010, using the logic of the ruling.

Grubbing for funds, the St. John the Baptist School Board decided to file suit to get extra funds, because in these previous years no automatic 2.75 percent funding boost was contained as part of the formula, unlike 2010. But the Court seemed to anticipate somebody might be thinking along those lines and inserted some language that it could use to wiggle out of declaring some extra $200 million in spending must occur on education, contrary to the will of the Legislature and Board of Elementary and Secondary Education. Thus, this suit seems doomed.

Commissioners preparing to suck more money from the people?

It’s kind of a surprise that this summer only a couple of people applied for appointment to the Caddo Parish Commission seat of the late Joyce Bowman, subsequently awarded to her son Jerald who this week will try to entice voters to make it a full-time gig. Because, as it turns out, you can make a pretty good living at it off of other people’s money.

The Commission brought up in June the idea of increasing the members’ salaries $6,000 to $28,000 annually, and additionally other benefits. This pay is almost three times the figure commissioners made when I ran for the body 18 years ago (and pledged not to take a salary) – and it doesn’t include per diem expenses for travel to meeting and other trips they may take.

Their pay has crept higher because parish ordinance ties their pay to cost-of-living increases granted to all parish employees – a nifty incentive for steadily rising income for all concerned. And made much more possible over the past few years with the growing, and some retrenching, Haynesville Shale production, the continuing royalty payments from which have enabled the parish to be quite generous in this and other ways.

Lack of GOP interest in Sixth CD should not worry party

Just more than a year out for election to the U.S. House, what one inside-the-Beltway publication called a “safe” Republican seat in Louisiana has attracted surprisingly little interest from putative GOP candidates – which doesn’t mean a quality Republican may not get elected.

As far as announced intentions, only three people have expressed interest in running for the Sixth Congressional District spot, centered around Baton Rouge. Two Republicans, first term Baton Rouge Metropolitan Councilman Ryan Heck and businessman Paul Dietzel, and Democrat real estate broker Richard Dean Lieberman have declared such in intention. Incumbent Rep. Bill Cassidy is running for the U.S. Senate.

Between the announced Republicans, they hardly have any elective experience. A couple of others who currently sit in the state Senate had expressed interest, but one recanted quickly and another seems poised to do so. State Sen. Norby Chabert remains interested, but being from the southern end of the district a distance from Baton Rouge puts as many obstacles to his candidacy as the benefits from his less-than-a-full term tenure in his current position would bring him.