It may be déjà vu all over again in some ways for the
Louisiana state superintendent of education, but that’s least true in the most
important ways and most true in the least important of ways.
Wednesday, the Board of Elementary and Secondary
Education installed Jefferson Parish school Superintendent Cade
Brumley as the state’s top education official, with the bare minimum of
eight votes. This means Brumley will helm the Department of Education through 2023, subject to
favorable annual evaluations by BESE.
In some fashion his rise to the post echoes his
predecessor John White. Both were young at their commencement, had not spent a
lot of time in the classroom, but had plenty of administrative experience.
There are a couple of key differences, which in
large part defined the politics of Brumley’s selection. His administrative
experience, with the exception of the last two years in Jefferson, was relatively
parochial, starting as a principal, then becoming superintendent in DeSoto
Parish. Prior to his taking the job in 2012, White had spent years in
high-profile administrative roles, first in New York, then as head of Louisiana’s
Recovery School District – as well as a stint outside of government as the head
of Teach for America affiliates, the organization which prepared him for
classroom teaching. To put it another way, White never had run a school or answered
to a school board of elected officials, while Brumley until he became Jefferson’s
leader (when he added charter schools to his portfolio and had a significant nonpublic
school presence) had little experience with anything but traditional ways in
education.
Also, Brumley’s career followed the most
traditional of traditional paths – a bachelors education degree, teaching in a traditional
school, principal of one, advanced education degrees, then onto his superintendent
jobs. Unlike White, he never became a policy entrepreneur with visionary ideas
of where to lead Louisiana education, but took a pragmatic
tinkering view of policy implementation to get results within the larger
framework that White and BESE provided.
That’s why Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards and
his three BESE appointees so enthusiastically backed Brumley. They knew, with a
solid majority of reformers on BESE, that nobody could win appointment who lobbied
to turn back the clock on a successful series of reforms White, with legislative and BESE
cooperation, had launched, changes which began with increased accountability of
all of students, teachers, schools, and districts and then moved to more rigor,
effort expended, and subject area expertise conveyed in instruction.
But at least they could get somebody in there who
would lift the foot from the gas pedal, figuring Brumley with his very
traditional background would. The person they didn’t want ascending to the job
was Assistant Superintendent Jessica Baghian, whose background and links to
education reform plus longtime association with White within the department they
oversimply saw as cloning White on policy.
And Brumley has shown he’ll carry water for the
education establishment troika of school boards, district superintendents,
and unions. In his last year in DeSoto, he served as head of the lobbying arm
for district chiefs, which reflexively opposed White, and carried
their criticisms to him.
These interests convinced enough of the reform
majority to back Brumley, and thus breaks the string of unambiguous reformers (excluding interim holders) on the job
stretching back to Paul Pastorek’s term starting in 2007. No doubt this thrills
Edwards, his education policy fellow travelers among elected Democrats, and the
troika.
At the same time, Brumley didn’t get this far without
having political skills, and so he must know this: nearly on a daily basis,
Edwards’ influence fades a bit more, well before the end of his term (the latest
sign: Edwards trying
to bargain to reduce even a little extensive tort reform he appears unable to
stop). Large Republican majorities in the legislature, who see no reason to
change existing education policy, remain entrenched. Reform sentiments still
have sway over the BESE majority – and when voters almost certainly elect a
Republican governor in 2023 with the same, the existing three anti-reform appointees
will flip to pro-reform replacements ready to offer a new four-year contract to
a superintendent that fits their views.
Brumley could buck these dynamics and try to take
the state backwards on education, which one might do if the next career step envisioned
takes you to a larger state where anti-reform elements rule over such policy,
with no certainty that ever could happen with the inertia he would face that
would lead to much conflict and little in the way of results to impress
outsiders. Much more likely, in order to leave any kind of imprint and make his
career prospects brighter whether he seeks another four years in Louisiana, he’ll
realize he needs to go with the flow.
Revanchist education forces in Louisiana may
celebrate because the Brumley appointment means no more bold reform initiatives
coming from that office. Yet neither should they expect any real backtracking
from those initiatives already in place.
Louisiana Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards, in
his quest to avoid right-sizing state government and introducing fiscal reform fueled
by the imperative of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, finds himself wedged
between a rock and hard place because of unemployment insurance changes.
Prior to the crisis, the state found itself in
good shape on this account. States collect from employers (adjusted for
experience) and employees (twice that for the self-employed) a tax that goes
into a fund held by the federal government on their behalves, from which they
can draw upon if current benefits payouts exceed tax intake. Louisiana collects
and pays out in ranges and on average among the lowest amounts among the states,
but had collected a nice cushion in its fund because of a number
of policies – such as having no Short-Time Compensation
program, typical earnings base and duration of benefits receipt, and (until
Edwards waived it
in late March) a waiting
week for receive benefits – prevented aggressive distribution of benefits.
That thrift the federal and state pandemic responses
now will put to the test, creating a two-fold budgetary problem. One is that
unemployment insurance policy hastily created in the aftermath of the virus’ descendance
onto society has the counterproductive impact of creating more
unemployment and less economic activity, causing state government costs to
rise and revenues to fall.
The Wuhan coronavirus pandemic got the sick man of
Louisiana casinos, in a region of the state that can ill-afford that.
Last week, DiamondJacks Casino in Bossier City announced
it would close its doors for good. The state’s longest-existing licensed riverboat
casino gave up the ghost just shy of its 26th birthday, citing the
pandemic as the coup de grace.
It had been on the critical list for some time. Over
the years it had drifted to the bottom of the state’s revenue tables, in the
most recent full month of operation (February)
having the third-lowest total revenue behind two smaller boats and the lowest
revenue per admission – although, interestingly it and Margaritaville were the
only two of the six in the Shreveport-Bossier market to post year-over-year
revenue gains.
Today, the Republican leadership in the Louisiana
House of Representatives signaled again
that a new sheriff had come to town.
The House Appropriations
Committee dealt with HB 2, the
capital outlay bill, dealt with $2.3 billion in cash the state had set aside
for projects, as well as authorizing $3 billion in sales of general obligation
bonds. But the real significance of its actions came over the use of $348
million in past surplus money eligible for spending on these kinds of projects.
This money came available from the fiscal year 2019
budget surplus, after shunting constitutionally-mandated portions to the Budget
Stabilization Fund and to paying down unfunded accrued liabilities in state
pensions plans. Besides these items and capital outlay, such funds also can go
towards paying down state debt.
Get ready for more smoke and mirrors than ever seen
in Louisiana state government as Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards tries
to save oversized government in the face of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, or
at least score some political points in the process.
That’s saying a lot. Until the late 1980s,
policy-makers routinely would adjust revenue forecasts however they saw fit to
justify spending levels they wanted to achieve. While the advent of the Revenue
Estimating Conference sidelined that tactic, others remained, with the most
flagrant example being the Louisiana
Recovery District that circumvented constitutional prohibitions of issuing
debt to pay for continuing operations, budgeting over multiple years, and
increasing taxes without supermajority approval in the Legislature.
At least these tactics passed legal muster, before
constitutional changes voided them. Saturday, Edwards released plans designed
to prevent busting the fiscal year 2020 budget and a proposed FY 2021 budget in
the face of revenues dropping over $1 billion as a result of the economic
slowdown caused by the virus spread and proclamations by Edwards stalling a significant
portion of the state’s economy. Both plans must be regarded as dubious.
The incremental transformation of Louisiana’s
political culture apparently has prompted some nose-growing
at the Baton Rouge Advocate.
So far, 2020 has seen the first steps towards
reversing nearly a century of acquiescence to oversized government. There have
been others: a brief flare snuffed out quickly when Democrat-then-Republican
former Gov. Buddy
Roemer first came into office, then several years later under GOP former
Gov. Mike
Foster reversal occurred on a few specific issues such as education, and
only a few years ago Republican former Gov. Bobby
Jindal mounted the most serious effort on a broad front, but one left incomplete.
But this time differs in that conservatives now
hold every minor statewide office and command majorities in the Legislature,
Public Service Commission, and Board of Elementary and Secondary Education. The
last redoubt of the old order is the Governor’s Mansion, and it has seen its
power wane to the point that it has lost control of the policy-making agenda
that reduces it to revanchist defensive displays.
A number of fault
lines have ruptured among Louisiana conservatives concerning a potential
bailout of state finances as a consequence of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic,
reaching up to its highest elected federal officials.
Almost
every state imposed some kinds of economic restrictions since the middle of
March, and even those without these or those that had issued relatively relaxed
and/or short-lived strictures have been affected by larger trends, such as the
dramatic slowdown in air traffic, falling capital markets, and fear of virus
transmission in the public. Combined, such dynamics have sapped revenue-producing
mechanisms for states, costing them an as-yet untold amount in the aggregate.
This has led to a debate over whether the federal
government, which already
has apportioned $2 trillion to fight effects of the virus, should have its taxpayers
pony up more to bail out state and local governments. And Louisiana’s two
Republican senators have taken a leading role in this, to the consternation of
many conservatives.
Declaring what all
the data had indicated two weeks ago and what then seemed obvious to all
objective observers except those under his authority, Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards let
more of his people go.
Monday, Edwards announced he
would lift a number of restrictions encapsulated in several proclamations made
by him over the past two months that brought large swaths of Louisiana’s
economy to a halt. He outlined the contents of a proclamation he said he would
issue later in the week, which would apply statewide at week’s end.
This came despite a pattern of data that largely
replicated that of two weeks ago, when Edwards declared that because some
regions in the state allegedly were not showing improved metrics the whole
state had to continue to suffer under the bans. The conclusions drawn from that
data as well were suspect, given that areas of the state under concern showed
in terms of cases improvement and those deemed not troublesome actually showed
increased incidence of cases.
It’s confirmed: Louisiana’s budgetary quagmire
created by an economic shutdown related to the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic is not as bad as expected
for this fiscal year but worse for next fiscal year.
The Revenue Estimating Conference recognized a $123.1
million reduction in general fund revenues, which may be spent on a variety of
things, from the last forecast of 13 months ago for this fiscal year and $867.5
million for next year. Another $239.5 million fewer is projected for dedicated
funds, which go to specific purposes, for this year and $165.1 million fewer
for the upcoming year.
A couple
of weeks ago, I pegged the fiscal year 2020 downdraft at around $550
million, but Republican Pres. Donald Trump and a
Republican-led Congress salvaged matters. Their 2017 legislation that cut
federal income taxes meant Louisianans deducted lower federal tax payments
against their state income taxes, resulting in higher collections than forecast
even into 2019 of over $200 million. As well, the increased number unemployment
insurance payments, which are taxable, with as much as 15 percent of the
workforce drawing these and supercharged by the across-the-board federal $600
monthly bonus through July also will boost these collections.
There’s a fox in the henhouse of Louisiana Republican effort to
implement tort reform, state Sen. Louie
Bernard.
Maybe a missed red flag was that Bernard, who spent
most of his working life in government, won election as Natchitoches Parish clerk
of court six times, up through 2011 as a Democrat. Or that as clerk of court
he rubbed elbows with a lot of personal injury lawyers. Or that trial lawyer and
Democrat former state Rep. Taylor Townsend, one of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards’ top
campaign finance bundlers, gave to the
limit to Bernard’s Senate campaign, as did Townsend’s uncle party powerbroker
Democrat former state Sen. Don Kelly, and also their law firm as well.
The payoff began last
week when Bernard cast in committee the only GOP vote for Edwards-backed
insurance regulation, positioned as faux tort reform, that actually would
raise the cost of Louisiana’s already ruinously-high vehicle premiums. The next
day, he proved
his anti-reform vote was no fluke.
