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23.7.06

If Malone stays out, GOP has better shot in Shreveport

The all-but announced entry of Liz Swaine into the Shreveport mayoral derby probably sets the major-candidate field for the 2006 contest. While state Sen. Max Malone has said he will let everybody know by qualifying (Aug. 9-11) whether he will be a candidate, it seems unlikely, for two reasons.

First, for a Sep. 30 primary launching officially a race for mayor leaves it a bit late; Malone really needs to start media buys prior to then and there’s no evidence of that. Also, with Swaine’s entry the field has become more fragmented, and the reality of electoral politics for this contest is that a late entry of a quality candidate such as Malone not only would not leave him with much of a chance against other quality candidates, but it would decrease the chances of white candidates as well.

Until the primary, the Shreveport electorate needs to be conceived as participating in two distinct contests. There will be little crossover voting in the primary, especially with so many candidates appealing to identifiable segments of the electorate. Thus, state Rep. Cedric Glover and television executive Ed Bradley will almost exclusively divvy up the black vote (newcomer Madjun Ali will receive little of this vote), while Democrat Swaine and Republicans former city official Jerry Jones, current city official Arlena Acree, and retiree Vernon Adams will divide the white vote, roughly in that order.

The two black candidates must share about half of the electorate, while four white candidates must share the roughly other half. As the number of white candidates increases, the odds lengthen that any one of them would exceed the primary vote of both black candidates separately. So, a Malone entrance would make matters worse for all white candidates, most of all for Jones who has picked up support from most Republican Party regulars and most conservative activists.

Swaine’s entrance hurts Acree and Glover the most. White Democrat loyalists without a standard-bearer would have been most likely to gravitate in those directions, but now have Swaine to support. The domino effect it produces also assists Bradley and Jones, by pulling away relatively more support from Glover and Acree.

However, Swaine probably does not have enough upside to make it into the general election runoff. While she likely will head up the list of choices of the dying breed of moderate white Democrats, liberals probably would move to Glover and conservatives to Jones (and almost all blacks going for Glover or Bradley), leaving her too few votes. Her best strategy will be of mobilization; no candidate will do better among occasional voters whose decisions on candidates rest mainly on name recognition and positive affect towards a candidate, not from any study of issues.

Bradley’s chameleon campaign might have been adversely impacted by Swaine’s entrance, but apparently a decision was made there long ago to build as his coalition’s chief base blacks attracted by the playing of the race card, evidenced by his initial refusal, then reluctant disavowal of racist propaganda belittling black politicians who chose to build coalitions with whites. Whether this “blame whitey” chunk of the electorate is enough of a core on which to make a runoff, however, is questionable.

Nevertheless, Swaine’s entry has made Bradley’s prospects noticeably brighter, although Glover still has the edge as the “black” frontrunner. Jones has solidified his status as the “white” frontrunner by her entry by virtue of activist support and resources on hand that will get his message out. Malone’s throwing his hat into the ring, however, not only would divide the Jones vote, but probably would create a situation with two blacks in the runoff in a city where blacks make up less than half the electorate.

The proportion of the electorate comprised by the different races that vote will be the key to the eventual winner. At this point, a Glover-Jones runoff seems the most likely. In any black Democrat/white Republican scenario, crucial would be registration in the city at the end of August and relative turnout. Statistics suggest that white registrations will lag non-whites by about 2,000 by then, but keeping in mind that white turnout exceeded non-white turnout in the 2002 primary by 2.5 percent, this indicates such a runoff would be very close indeed. In this scenario, the quality of campaign organizations becomes most critical and every vote will count.

20.7.06

Odom, Foti derive new ways for state to waste money

As if Louisiana’s governments, certainly state and many local, waste enough money through inefficiency and ill-advised priorities, now potentially more can be wasted through taking on – with little oversight – riskier investments. Both a “low-tech” and “high-tech” version made news recently.

The “low-tech” version involved an old-fashioned loan guarantee made by a state agency, the State Market Commission, controlled by Agriculture Secretary Bob Odom, to help private interests buy the Lacassine sugar mill. The facility, recently completed costing the state $45 million despite financial projections showing it to be dubious, is supposed to be bought from the state for $45-60 million (the actual price depending upon what Odom feels like telling people at any given moment) by something (the actual buyer depending upon what Odom feels like telling people at any given moment) between now and who knows when (the date depending upon what Odom feels like telling people at any given moment).

But it turns out that a group who may be the buyer has gotten a loan guarantee of $7 million from the Commission. This means if it defaults on that loan, which goes towards making the mill operational (the actual date of operation depending upon what Odom feels like telling people at any given moment), the state is on the hook for it. And given the projections, default would not be surprising.

19.7.06

Blanco creates another impediment to recovery

The lesson for today: if Gov. Kathleen Blanco and a handful of state legislators can’t produce legislation to give the shaft to Louisiana taxpayers, there are other ways for them to confiscate the people’s money.

The example here is the decision by the State Civil Service Commission to raise the minimum wage paid to state employees by a buck an hour, even as legislation to do so failed in the past legislative session, and despite the well-known reasons why any hike in a minimum wage, or even the very existence of it, is a bad thing for the entire economy. Incredibly, even so the decision was unanimous.

You might think the members would know better (especially this one). But, then again, they were put there by Blanco (from a list of three nominees by each private university leader in the state), so they pretty much have to vote the way she tells them if they wish to remain. The only exception is the state employee electee, who houses prisoners for a living.

18.7.06

Veto session attempt primarily about political futures

It’s been a long time since there’s been a veto session of the Louisiana Legislature, because so seldom do legislators want to challenge the governor. That state Rep. Billy Montgomery has started an effort to do so tells us about his and Gov. Kathleen Blanco’s political futures.

The last governor to have bills vetoed was Buddy Roemer. It was no accident that a year later Roemer found he could not even make the general election runoff for a second term against a pair of future convicts. Only a weak governor would have a veto sprung against her, but it’s not a good sign for Blanco’s future prospects to even have it being actively considered.

No doubt Montgomery sincerely believes in the merit of the bill the veto of which he wants overridden – as well he should, for HB 699 was a bill that never should have been vetoed. Its compelling argument that consumers will benefit from lower cable rates overwhelms the weak facts and twisted logic of the special interests that opposed it, local government and cable television companies. But that may not be even the primary reason Montgomery is kicking up a fuss.

Term-limited in the House, Montgomery has eyes on the Senate District 37 seat, perhaps the most conservative in the state which therefore gives Montgomery a thin record for it. Traditionally one of the more populist, liberal members of the House, this year Montgomery compiled a more reformist, conservative voting record, and HB 699 was a big part of it. Shepherding the bill through wins him some credit, but a final victory or at least the effort to reach it would be even better.

Since Montgomery has so little to hang his hat on in terms of conservative/reformist credentials, the more he can milk HB 699, the better his chances of winning in 2007. Even if Montgomery could rally a majority in both houses to call the session, with just one vote to spare in both the House and Senate and a number of previous bill supporters probably skittish that an affirmative override vote on their part would lead to Blanco avenging herself on their capital outlay requests next spring, the odds for a successful override aren’t good.

Still, Montgomery must figure the publicity can only do him electoral good, and he is doing the right thing. But, to properly understand the motivations here, were Montgomery a genuine conservative/reformer and/or he was not running for that open seat, it’s very doubtful he would have gone to these lengths. It’s nice to have a leopard working for you, but they don’t change their spots overnight.

17.7.06

Public needs to watch Regents matters closely

If I had little experience with working in government, in higher education, in Louisiana, I likely would shrug off reports that power plays are going on at the state’s Board of Regents, of these fantastic scenarios that certain people are trying to be put into positions of power, that the governor’s husband was trying to rearrange the higher education system, that political agendas come first. But ….

Most people go through their lives with only minimal daily contact with government (which unfortunately often becomes reflected in a lack of interest or knowledge about government and political issues of the day). They’re engaged enough interacting with free markets, raising families, or pursuing other ends to make it difficult to fully understand that (1) daily happenings in government agencies have only a tenuous connection with the real world, (2) daily happenings in academia have almost no connection with the real world, and (3) both of these conditions are compounded in extremity by a hyper-politicized political environment built so much on personalized power bases such as in Louisiana.

I’m embarking on 20 years teaching in higher education, with all but four of those years in Louisiana institutions, most of those at my present location. But I also have the benefit of an M.B.A. and a short tenure managing in the banking industry, and I can tell you that the decisions made in the latter, private sector area are much more rationally related to reality (because of the imperative that the free market distributes resources in proportion to agents’ contributions to society) than in the former, which features government-run institutions heavily dependent upon tax dollars (directly or subsidized) where it is political power, not merit, that determines the distribution of resources. I could, but won’t, give a number of examples of this personally known by me just from my own institution, and others at which I’ve taught.

So when in Louisiana you have state senators and former regents complaining about political agendas to ditch certain people and to bring in others, and to reorganize the entire structure of higher education apparently to favor a certain interest led by the governor’s husband, as far-fetched as all of this sounds, not only is it believable, it might even be true. That by itself doesn’t mean the personnel changes or potential reorganization would not be positive. But it would be reprehensible if the reason for such changes was not after careful study of all available facts and options, but because of politics.

This is why the search for a new chancellor for the Louisiana State University System, new appointees to the Board of Regents, and any alterations to the organization of higher education in the state that may result must be scrutinized very carefully by those connected to higher education, legislators, and the citizenry. Even that may not be enough to prevent politics – even with procedures to maximize impartiality I’ve seen rigged search committees/pre-determined hiring decisions, “studies” that blatantly push one side of an argument, and Gov. Kathleen Blanco can stick whomever she wants on the Board of Regents where they have the power to do whatever they want (short of legislative intervention).

Not reelecting Blanco would nip in the bud the possibility of this specific issue becoming a problem, but the general conditions remain regardless. Only a vigilant public can control for that. So, even if living in the real world takes up so much time and effort, keeping up with what goes on in the unreal world of Louisiana higher education is something all citizens need to do to make it work the best that it can.

(P.S. Note disclaimer in small type below for those of you who are unable to understand the obvious.)

13.7.06

Blanco, special interests try to spin her veto choices

All of Gov. Kathleen Blanco, cable companies, and local governments went into damage control mode to justify the special treatment handed out to certain special interests, to the detriment of consumers and taxpayers, with her recent veto decisions.

Blanco is fooling nobody by her issuance of an executive order which will have nongovernmental recipients of line item largesse in the state budget submit documentation and financial statements regarding their uses of the funding. All it does is to require reporting, it does not mandate any evaluation of the actual merits of the uses to which the money is put. True accountability would be to make sure the spending is in accordance with an essential need of the state. Or, as Treasurer John Kennedy noted, the time to scrutinize questionable projects is before they get into the budget, not after they have been put there by legislators.

Cable television interests attempted to spin away criticism of the veto of HB 699, which leaves its provision essentially in a monopoly controlled by them and local governments. Sharon Kleinpeter, vice president of governmental and public affairs for Cox Communications (which, by the way, is reducing its presence in the state with the recent completed sale of its north Louisiana operations), said the bill was unnecessary because there are no real barriers to competition in the cable industry.

That’s not entirely true. The barrier is local government’s attitudes and economic reality – nothing in the law requires any government to accept any offer to provide services. At present, the large fixed costs for provision of infrastructure makes it prohibitive to new entrants. Thus, one part of HB 699 would have waived off certain costs to new entrants in order to encourage competition – costs, in fact, emanating from the whims of local governments. One was the ability of local government to use pass-through fees on cable subscribers to raise revenue, a stealth fee increase on its citizens. Another was mandating “buildout,” meaning forcing providers to create supply in economically unviable parts of their jurisdictions. Both mean higher rates, one as a fee, and the other as a subsidy.

This is why HB 699 would have reduced costs to consumers and provided more choice. And that’s why both local governments and cable companies fought it – the former to protect its additional revenues, the other to protect its monopoly status, with the latter point brought home when Cox immediately raised its rates in two locations the day of the HB 699 veto.

Thus, it is with incredible arrogance and/or stupidity that one representative of local interests, Roland Dartez, executive director of the Police Jury Association of Louisiana, said, “We really think we’re going to be able to protect the consumers a lot better this way.” No, it just protects your ability to squeeze more out of them. It is also with incredible skepticism that one should greet Louisiana Municipal Association Executive Director Tom Ed McHugh’s statement, “We can work with the industry … to get them out competing quicker than the bill itself.”

If McHugh is serious, he’ll ask for legislation which gets rid of the stealth fee increase ability of local governments and negates buildout provisions. After all, if rates do go down with competition, demand will increase supply which will bring more money into government coffers from the sales tax on the rates and it will increase the economic incentives to supply in areas previously unprofitable. If he doesn’t, it shows his group's members merely wants to protect their power and privilege.

Legislation along these lines needs to reappear and pass next session. Maybe in an election year Blanco will listen more closely to the people than to special interests.

12.7.06

Blanco veto decisions shows love of big government

So let’s see, according to Gov. Kathleen Blanco, (1) you use your line item veto on state spending projects either if the spending is going to be restored or it’s connected to somebody facing legal woes, and (2) you veto bills when it’s uncertain whether local government revenue would decline to the benefit of ratepayers but you sign them when it’s certain local government revenues will increase at the expense of taxpayers.

That the larger message Blanco delivered in her series of veto and related messages concerning the most controversial bills of the session at her deadline to deal with them. It started with her poor explanation for the veto of HB 699 which would have introduced competition to the provision of cable television by granting telephone companies entrance into it by statewide franchise.

Why this was a good bill and refuting the specious arguments of its opponents has been addressed previously. Blanco wrote that she vetoed it because it was uncertain whether there would be a loss of revenue for local governments, causing the need for tax increases or service cuts.

She’s probably right, but for the wrong reason. Under the current local franchising agreement law, local governments can charge fees to ratepayers that get cable television which have nothing to do with its provision – in other words, a backdoor way of raising revenues on the back of ratepayers. HB 699 would not have permitted this although it would have apportioned monies from rates paid through the statewide franchise to local governments in relation to the number of subscribers. So, local government would lose the ability to impose stealth revenue fees – but that’s something good, not bad. Blanco shows who’s side she’s really on here – bigger (local) government, not their citizens.

Blanco also questioned (but, again, with no certainty) that the bill might violate laws dealing with local government property rights. Let’s say it did, that’s an easy one to solve – change the law if the HB 699 were found by the courts to do that. Maybe she forgets that (with the exception of a few local governments whose charters existed before the latest Constitution) the state has the last word on what powers local governments have in this area. And, in no way does HB 699 interfere with existing contracts – but even if it did, why not just offer the same statewide franchise to existing franchisees next year?

She seems concerned about hypothetical situations that could hurt (but, as noted above, actually would help many) taxpayers with HB 699, but with HB 1281, she just lets it go. This bill would steer tax dollars from state coffers to special interests in Jefferson Parish. Even with this certainty, she signed it, and then tried to have it both ways by arguing she had worked out a deal with Parish President Aaron Broussard essentially not to implement it and state Rep. and author of the controversial portion of the bill John Alario to change the new law next session.

Promises are nice, but what if Broussard doesn’t get reelected this fall? Or if Alario can’t get the bill to pass (assuming he genuinely tries to do so)? If Blanco really meant to short-circuit this favor, she would have vetoed the bill and not left its non-implementation to chance. Renovating historic structures in Baton Rouge wouldn’t be any less likely to happen if the ability to use tax increment financing was delayed a year. Instead, we must conclude either she is too trusting or trying to save face.

And, despite millions of dollars of funding going to local government who often don’t really need some project or to private organizations that have no accountability requirements and no real benefit to the entire state in their state-funded activities, she approved over 90 percent of such spending – and most of what she didn’t she admitted likely would be restored soon. Almost half of the rest of her vetoed spending was connected to someone who had legal troubles and who was getting bad press for it; little else did Blanco consider it worthy of a veto, almost none of it from $32 million of “special legislative projects.” Again, Blanco would rather cozy up to (big) local government and placate powerful political allies than direct resources to help the entire state.

Simply, Blanco’s explanation of her actions on these bills ring hollow. She loves big government, thinks it can solve all problems, and proved it with these actions and explanations of them.

Blanco decisions favor special interests, snub people

Gov. Kathleen Blanco made clear where her loyalties are with her actions of what bills to sign and to veto with the 2006 Legislative session – doing the bidding of special interests, certainly not on the behalf of the people.

On the one hand, she signed HB 1281, as well as HB 658. These bills allow special interests in Jefferson and Sabine Parishes to siphon off state money indefinitely and to receive favorable land deals. On the other hand, she vetoed HB 699 which would have brought more competition and lower prices to consumers for cable television; instead, she kowtowed to greedy cable television companies and to the voracious appetites of local government for more of the peoples’ money.

She also largely whiffed on line-item vetoes in the state’s operating budget. A handful of small items being refused hardly rids the budget of millions of dollars of unnecessary spending that should be the responsibility of local governments to fund on their own or represent outright gifts with no accountability to private organizations. Again, she would rather please politically-connected special interests than to be a proper steward of the people’s resources.

What does it take for this opportunist to put the people, not governments and special interests, first? Do they have to rise up in mass to articulate their disgust? That’s the impression left with a veto it seems Blanco unwillingly did cast, against HB 1028 which would have allowed state legislators to give themselves premium access to state insurance even if they are only part-timers.

It shouldn’t have to come to that, and these poor decisions give yet one more reason why Louisiana cannot wait until she leaves office.

11.7.06

Redistricting soon both possible, essential for Louisiana

After the U.S. Supreme Court recently affirmed that states could reapportion themselves at any time, Louisiana has a strong case to do so with its Legislature as a result of the hurricane disasters of 2005 which has caused the state’s population to lose at present as many as 300,000 people and has dramatically shifted population patterns within it.

On the one hand, for representative democracy to actually be so, equiproportionality must exist among these districts, or else rotten burroughs spoil things. On the other hand, the statistical basis on which to do so is fleeting unless the state commits a good chunk of change to carrying out some kind of census.

While some may contend the wide variances in district populations must be tolerated until the next federal census and the 2011 election cycle, there is some middle ground here. The need is obvious; for example, turnout in the 2006 primary in New Orleans’ flood-ravaged District E was nearly half that of the 2002 primary turnout, down about 20 percent, even with heroic get-out-the-vote efforts funded by state taxpayers.

The state should proceed by petitioning to the Department of Justice that the state use registered voters as the basis on which to reapportion during the 2007 session for that election cycle only, based upon the Court’s 1966 ruling in Burns v. Richardson. There, the court allowed Hawai’i to do just this until the 1970 census information became available because of a large transient population. In this instance, citizen displacement and the influx of a transient population because of the hurricanes should merit similar treatment.

If pre-clearance is granted by Justice, the new districts could be in place by next July at minimal expense. That’s still about two months before qualifying, leaving plenty of time for campaigning in the new districts.

Whether political considerations will allow this to happen is another matter. But fairness to the citizenry dictates that the state makes the effort to ensure that all voices get heard equally, justifying the redistricting.

10.7.06

Blanco has chance to walk the walk with line-item vetoes

So Gov. Kathleen Blanco starts getting some political heat about her saying one thing, getting rid of budget categories that steered state money to local requests at the whim of legislators with her permission, then doing another, permitting he same kind of items back into the budget and saying she had no real plans to scrutinize them any more than in the past. Then she turns it up so more on herself by blaming the situation on state Treasurer John Kennedy, who noted that he has no formal power in the area, but who then accepted her invitation to come up with a list of line-item vetoes.

The biggest project on the $9.2 million list is the $500,000 going to the Louisiana Leadership Institute, the child of state Sen. Cleo Fields to steer money into his district for “a nonprofit organization providing programs and services to build leadership, improve academic skills, increase self-esteem and inspire motivation in Baton Rouge area students.” Apparently, fielding a prize-winning marching band is one strategy to boost this self-esteem: the group’s band won the “Battle of the High School Marching Bands” last November in Carson, CA, winning money to buy new uniforms and instruments even as tens of thousands of taxpayer’s dollars were spent to send the band there while the state struggled to recover from the hurricane disasters. (Meanwhile, third place Monroe’s Carroll High School didn’t get anything extra from the state.)

Fields was somewhat upset by Kennedy’s recommendation, acknowledging that maybe he ought to find non-governmental sources of funding if there was going to be some much capriciousness in the process. It’s rather interesting that Fields only now has come to some realization that he ought to wean the organization off of taxpayer dollars, since he’s been doing the opposite for many years – the group got $75,000 in 2001, $200,000 in 2002, $300,000 in 2003, $500,000 in 2004 and 2005, and the $500,000 this year plus two other separate line items worth an additional $200,000.

This item is an excellent example of what ought not be in the budget. If the state thinks sending bands to California is a service it ought to be performing, then either it should create a program in state government to do this so that this can face legislative and/or bureaucratic scrutiny, or it should create a competitive grant program to have nonprofit organizations accomplish this. Earmarking money straight out of the general fund with next to no oversight on its use is just bad public policy.

If this is indicative of the other 200 items listed by Kennedy, vetoing the entire contents of his list would show that Blanco just doesn’t talk the talk, but walks the walk when it comes to making Louisiana government more efficient – especially when the state remains a supplicant to the federal government for disaster-recovery funding.