Republican Pres. Donald Trump’s endorsement of GOP state Sen. Blake Miguez to succeed Republican Rep. Julia Letlow in Louisiana’s Fifth Congressional District leaves more questions than the one answered with it.
That one being, Miguez now should be rated the favorite to win. A huge war chest he transferred from his attempted Senate campaign when he shucked that upon the entrance of Letlow into that contest – after her receiving explicit encouragement from Trump – certainly put him up there as a big contender, but questions lingered because Miguez is domiciled (close to New Iberia) nowhere near the district. He had no particular history in the district save attending Louisiana State University and his legislative service of the past several years, so it was uncertain how district voters might receive that, especially those in its northern reaches some 300 miles from where he lives. As well, having abandoned the Senate contest and shifting gears so suddenly might make him look too opportunistic, if not desperate, to secure a seat in Washington, D.C. that may not play well with voters.
Trump’s unexpected endorsement changes those dynamics well into his favor. Given the president’s popularity in the district, which goes from moderately high in its southern portion to extremely high in its north, that does carry a lot of weight and if advertised – and it will be with all the resources Miguez can draw to bear – can override concerns about his alien presence in the district. Opponents can raise that argument, but if Trump says it’s all right regardless, that’s going to good enough for a lot of Republicans – and that’s all that’s needed, since the winner of the GOP primary will win the general election.
This invites the first and most interesting question: why did Trump do it? That reason was obvious in the case of Letlow – Trump has animus towards Senate Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, who cooperated in a half-baked impeachment effort against Trump between terms (the display of poor reasoning and judgment involved of which alone should disqualify Cassidy from holding such an office). By inciting Letlow to join the race, Trump obviously figured this maximized his chances of booting out Cassidy, even with solid conservatives in the field like his former aide GOP Treas. John Fleming and Miguez.
But the CD 5 tilt had no such drama, with around a half-dozen demonstrably conservative Republicans highly supportive of Trump’s policies expressing a desire to run. And whoever of them did win the primary would win the election and install in Congress a solid conservative backing Trump. On the surface there was no one to try to keep from winning and no reason not to prefer somebody else over this collection.
Making the choice even curiouser, it seems to run contrary, if not hostile, to the alliance visible with the Letlow endorsement. While Republican Gov. Jeff Landry publicly made perfunctory remarks of approval about Letlow getting into the Senate race, media sources claimed behind the scenes he enthusiastically backed her to Trump months before she formally dove in. It would make much sense that Landry and Trump would be on the same page on this issue because they are on the same pages with a lot of them. Undoubtedly Landry is one of Trump’s favorite governors, with the president recently having named him an (apparently short-lived) special envoy to Greenland and to the federal Advisory Council on Historic Preservation.
However, Miguez is not one of Landry’s favorite legislators, with the two having been at loggerheads over various issues from time to time. As well, Landry appointed to the Board of Regents one declared CD 5 candidate and others in the Legislature have worked with Landry on legislation. So, it raises the question of why Trump apparently would cross up an ally by endorsing someone with whom Landry has been at odds from time to time and simultaneously thereby shunning candidates Landry may have preferred.
Digging deeper, is it the chicken or the egg? In Letlow’s case, it seemed the endorsement was the final prod to convince her to take up the race. But it happened in reverse in the case of Miguez. And it seems difficult to believe that the day after Miguez announced to the world he had made the switch that White House aides would go to Trump and tell the boss of this sudden new and totally unanticipated event, whereupon, out of the blue, Trump decides he should wade into an all-GOP affair with plenty of his supporters already running to promote the newcomer who he had decided against endorsing in the Senate contest – and especially as it might upset the plans of one of his close allies. That scenario seems less credible than a calculation, perhaps even prior to the Letlow endorsement, to get her in and then push Miguez over, but to reverse the sequences temporally so as to make it look less contrived.
We’ll never know, and it doesn’t change anything. Still, if the case, it would be fascinating to know why exactly Trump should place just such an emphasis on a House contest when he doesn’t often insert himself into those and typically does so only when there’s running a quality Democrat (to clear the primary field for a candidate he thinks with the best chance to win the general election and/or to boost a nominee’s chances) and/or there’s an obnoxious Republican in contention. None of that appears to apply to the CD 5 contest.
If now Miguez sits in the catbird seat for the district, that leads to a pair of final questions: has reapportionment post-Louisiana v. Callais been worked out and how will other candidates react? By the end of June, the U.S. Supreme Court almost certainly will decide to throw out the state’s current racially-gerrymandered map and create jurisprudence allowing drawing one for 2028 that allows for just one of six majority-minority districts, stretching up the river from most of New Orleans to parts of Baton Rouge.
If elected, Miguez would want ideally a district that includes New Iberia excluding domiciles both of Republican Reps. Clay Higgins and Steve Scalise. But given that GOP Speaker Mike Johnson won’t want boundaries that push a substantial minority of Democrats into his district that complicates his reelection chances, it’s difficult to draw a map constitutionally even post-Callais balancing all of these.
The solution could be for Miguez to do what Letlow did a year ago, up and move from rural north Louisiana to Baton Rouge. She went from one point in the convoluted district to another, but Miguez would move into the district and pick a place, almost certainly Baton Rouge, which then easily could be folded into a new district (perhaps looking much like the 2022 plan) and leave a new (although repeater) district taking in some of the Florida Parish area, Alexandria, and Monroe.
If that’s the case, then the Monroe-based candidates have every reason to stay in, because they can use this contest, if nothing else, as a warm-up for 2028. Of course, the map has to break in that direction and is predicated on Miguez winning and moving, but despite these uncertainties it might be worth it to them.
Yet one thing is certain: the Trump nod to Miguez raises a number of questions that have answers, but perhaps ones that never will become public.
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