If Louisiana’s Fifth Congressional District becomes an open seat, what often is a frenetic process probably goes onto steroids courtesy of the U.S. Supreme Court.
Because Louisiana is just a handful of states that does not have most state and many local elections held during even-numbered years, contests for Congress tend to two directions: either one or two candidates consolidate support very early in the process or, absent that, a number of quality candidates end up offering themselves. As this is due to the fact that most candidates holding a state or local office do not have eschew running for reelection in order to take a shot at Congress, that encourages more candidates than typical to hit the hustings if at least one candidate hasn’t worked the political ecosystem hyper-effectively. It doesn’t matter whether blanket or semi-closed primary, the dynamic remains the same.
Thus, if Republican Rep. Julia Letlow does take a hint from GOP Pres. Donald Trump’s endorsement and jumps into the U.S. Senate race, expect a land rush of names to put their hands up to take her place in a district that basically clips Monroe, clips Alexandria, clips Baton Rouge, and sprawls eastward from all of these points. One report already has dug up five names, all state legislators, who have expressed interest in competing for the seat if Letlow shunts it aside.
The names reflect an amorphous sampling, some living nearly 200 miles from others, because the district was designed to fit into a map with two majority-minority districts, which is demographically impossible to construct without serious damage to communities of interest and throwing entirely disparate regions of the state together. Which is why the Court has taken up a case that challenges the notion that race should have precedence over factors such as communities of interest in drawing districts unless discrimination against minorities is revealed as an intended motive behind a map, concerning Louisiana’s and could rule any time on it.
Almost certainly the Court will throw out the current map as unconstitutional, and with it the Fifth District as configured. And if it does, it could come after qualifying for the district’s party primary elections ending Feb. 13, or even after the primary election May 16 (and if it doesn’t announce soon, in fact the most likely date might be right before the Jun 27 runoff date).
As things stand, it’s very likely that the Fifth as is survives for two years then disappears into a more rational map likely with just one M/M district. Insofar as the Fifth goes, it likely would take a form either based around Monroe and Alexandria or Monroe and Shreveport, meaning that Monroe-area politicians would remain within the district and by campaigning in 2026 – and especially winning – would have a leg up in 2028.
Paradoxically, this should encourage, not discourage, entrants. That’s because even if competitors find themselves drawn out of the Fifth for 2028, they may have a leg up in a new map, especially if they win in 2026. For example, Baton Rouge-based politicians probably will have a Capital-area district created, and such a politician already will have introduced himself to some of its voters magnified by the reality that the 2026 contest will demand media market usage that covers the Capital area. Depending upon the map drawn, this also could work out for an Alexandria-area politician (particularly if the 2026 winner, who can use a perch in Congress to sway legislators in the reapportionment process).
In fact, none of the five bandied names includes someone from the Florida Parishes nor anybody who is term limited. Looming term limitation, where if you want to continue your elective career at a higher level and/or foresee a difficult swap in 2027 of a House for Senate seat or vice versa, probably will compel even more current legislators into the field. However, a single M/M map almost certainly puts the Florida Parishes into a district containing House Majority Leader Republican Rep. Steve Scalise who doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere, so politicians from that area may sit this one out.
So, if Letlow bails, this could end up quite the donnybrook, more so than typical, as politicians seeing this as potentially a generational opportunity pull out the stops to grab the, or after reapportionment a, seat while and if they can.
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