Because of a blatant partisan gerrymander, not much drama will come from Caddo Parish Commission elections this fall, with just a few internecine conflicts to stir up things.
Despite having a black/white population of about 49/45 percent as a result of the 2020 census, earlier this year the Commission reapportioned itself into seven strongly majority-black districts out of 12. In terms of registered voters (through August), no district’s majority race was less than 62 percent, District 10 being the lowest, which also underwent the most dramatic change from its previous incarnation where prior to February’s reapportionment its plurality was 49 percent white.
Commission Democrats managed this with an extreme power play. Disregarding its own rules that reapportionment should have occurred in 2022, they delayed the process until one commissioner, Republican Jim Taliaferro, resigned at the end of the year to take a seat on the Shreveport City Council and then appointed Democrat Ron Cothran to serve in the heavily-Republican district. That gave them seven sure votes by which to muscle through the current plan, disregarding an alternative that would have created six each black or white majority districts, leaving District 10 with a small white plurality.
They segregated races to such an extent because they didn’t want what happened with the similar School Board District 10 last year. It was drawn in that reapportionment to have a small black majority (leading to a slight white plurality in registrations) that led to a white Republican winning despite that typically whites in Caddo typically cross over more than twice the rate to vote for black candidates than blacks do for white candidates. The plan adopted largely hinged on the fact that with a board divided Democrats and Republicans with six each, so an egregious gerrymander could not have passed.
As a result, there won’t be any competitive inter-party races which in any event feature eight incumbents of which only District 12 Democrat Ken Epperson drew a challenger in the form of former District 10 GOP Commissioner David Cox. But district demographics make Epperson a solid favorite to win an eighth (not all consecutive) term.
A newcomer also got a free ride. Democrat Gregory Young, a retiree who once tried for this office and also Shreveport City Council, will replace the only term-limited commissioner, Democrat Lyndon Johnson.
Technically, another incumbent also is trying his luck. Cothran, reapportioned out of District 8, will go for a lateral move to District 10. He faces off against Democrat Quinton Aught, who lost narrowly to then-Republican Mario Chavez, who won’t seek reelection in a district now much less favorable demographically to his chances, and Democrat Kenny Gordon. Given his previous effort, Aught is the favorite to flip the district to Democrats.
While that might get heated, so might the contest to replace Cothran. That comes down to Republicans Grace Anne Blake, a small business owner who applied for the appointment Cothran nabbed, and education administrator Tim Euler. Both tout conservative credentials in likely the most conservative district of the 12, but until recently Blake was not registered as a Republican, back then choosing a no party label.
But the most heated battle could transpire between District 4 GOP incumbent John-Paul Young and Republican Frank Thaxton. Both sons of judges, Thaxton may have a score to settle, as he also applied for the post Cothran received, who Young voted for. Over his term, Young frequently has sided with Democrats and on some big issues, like voting for Cothran and the reapportionment plan highly favorable to Democrats. But in doing so, whether knowing it he drew Thaxton into his district, and is the incumbent most in peril of losing.
The last incumbent having to break at least a little sweat to get back into office, District 1 Republican Todd Hopkins, received a challenge from the right in the form of welding supply employee and political activist Republican Chris Kracman, Hopkins’ long political service in a couple of different roles and conservative record should be enough to reelect him.
Republicans John Atkins and Ed Lazarus, plus Democrats Roy Burrell, Steffon Jones, and Stormy Gage-Watts will return unchallenged and likely will be joined by Democrat university administrator Victor Thomas in District 3. He faces no party Joshua Hanson, but district demographics favor him to replace Democrat Steven Jackson, whose tendency to grandstand has become tiresome and whose recent legal troubles apparently convinced him to seek another office.
Democrats almost certainly will continue to control the Commission, although this time affirmed through the ballot box, and of the three incumbents facing a challenge in their current districts only Young has any real threat to be sent packing.
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