Getting an early start, Republican Shreveport Mayor Tom Arceneaux formally announced his bid for reelection in 13 months, just as an example of controversy flared that will make a second term an uphill proposition.
History instructs and numbers don’t lie. Arceneaux, a white Republican in a jurisdiction then where over half the voters registered as Democrats and even a higher proportion were black, in an upset captured the office because he ran against an unpopular incumbent and entered the runoff against a longtime, controversial black Democrat who had made enemies within the black community. Now facing an electoral environment where currently 55 percent of the electorate is black and a half Democrats, if he faces off against a quality black Democrat without the baggage other such candidates carried in 2022, he will be an underdog.
To win, Arceneaux had to have a near-perfect mayoralty, and he has done well. Taking a much more grounded and serious approach than his predecessor, he has tried to solve street-level problems that tend to transcend partisan boundaries. The most recent example, and perhaps his most effective and popular, has been to aggressively go after blighted properties and some big ones at that to, at least, clear areas of them.
Nobody is for blight, and that could be a winning issue if then added to a few others could be enough to convince enough black Democrat voters to stick with him in joining what should be overwhelming Republican support, plus a majority of other voters, to win another term. But Arceneaux overplayed his hand somewhat on this issue by then proposing a two percent surcharge on water and sewerage bills for a year-and-half starting at the beginning of next (budget) year to continue the blight-eradicating mission, or an estimated $3 million.
The idea is good, but the execution has not been well received. Bipartisan opposition has risen about this on the City Council, which would have to approve of the temporary surcharge as part of the 2026 budget. And the public may not be too keen on the idea, especially as a series of increases on its water and sewerage bills over the past few years have raised these on average 187 percent between 2013-24 and water rates by 20 percent since 2020.
Rates have skyrocketed because the city must fulfill a consent decree originally intended to expire by next year over deficient water and sewerage systems, decades in the making, that has left the city with a current state Department of Health grade of ‘D.” So far, the costs have well exceeded original estimates and, with around $185 million worth of work still remaining, it seems dubious not only that the city will finish all the work on time but also will have the funds to pay for it.
The blight surcharge would leave a few million more on the table to pursue the fix, but if not approved leaves a choice between finishing off contemplated blight reduction and having that many fewer dollars to fulfill the decree or dropping the effort unless money is carved out elsewhere. The irony, of course, is that Arceneaux inherited the problem but his political opponents can pummel him with the consequences.
Tying around his neck the proposed fee increase, plus spillover from the decree that will haunt him for the rest of his term and can be used as a cudgel against him if he can’t get the city out from under it by election day, as well as other vote-sapping moves here and there – such as backing unpopular speed enforcement cameras, having to wade into a divisive issue of dealing with the crumbling Fairgrounds Field, stumbling over relocation of police personnel and services, endorsing tax increases to fund initiatives such as addressing the decree, coming off looking like the Grinch that stifled Carnival, and persistent higher crime levels (with shootings into crowds and by police here and there) – in and of themselves may detach only a small number of voters from supporting him, but given that he really had to run the table to secure reelection they add up to making that a difficult task.
Arceneaux does have a decent-sized campaign war chest on his side, but money can’t ensure a win when the demographics are unfavorable. Much depends upon which Democrats decide to take a stab at evicting him, but it seems inevitable that enough quality candidates of that stripe will surface who can harp on the warts, whether deserved, on his record to make his path towards four more years difficult.
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