Routed Democrats may suffer more shock losses

The Republican rout in state elections this month may presage even more momentum in that direction for next month’s runoff elections, perhaps at the state but especially at the local level.

Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry was expected to triumph in November, but instead got the job done in October. Republicans already had taken without opposition Insurance Commissioner with Tim Temple and Agriculture Commissioner with Mike Strain, and GOP Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser as expected won outright as well. Nearly winning outright were for Attorney General Republican Solicitor General Liz Murrill and for Treasurer the GOP’s John Fleming, a former congressman and White House official. Republican First Assistant Secretary of State Nancy Landry narrowly took the most votes for that office, but given the distribution of votes all three should win handily in November over lackluster Democrats. Almost certainly Republicans will hold all statewide offices.

Most of the eight Board of Elementary and Secondary Education also were decided, with Republicans state Rep. Paul Hollis easily cruising in District 1 and state Rep. Lance Harris in District 5, joining incumbent Republican Ronnie Morris in District 6 who also won handily, along with District 3’s GOP incumbent Sandy Holloway who didn’t face opposition. Democrat incumbent Preston Castille did turn away a challenger, and new member Democrat Sharon Latten Clark who faced no opposition in District 2.

That leaves just District 4 where the favorite Republican Stacey Melerine almost hit half plus one votes and should do so handily over a Democrat in November, and District 7, an all-GOP affair. Given that Jeff Landry will appoint three members to BESE as well, Republicans will hold a 9-2 advantage, or plus three from the present. Keep in mind that in all statewide and BESE contests, the combined vote for Republican candidates in these didn’t go below 64 percent.

Finally, with just two intra-party runoffs in the Senate, Republicans will hold a 28-11 advantage, an addition of one seat. In the House of Representatives, given that only four of the 18 runoffs feature inter-party competition and three very likely will go to Republicans, at worst the GOP will maintain a 71-34 advantage, or could add a seat.

These highly predictable results don’t leave much drama ahead but do mean Republicans made incremental gains, apart from the huge win of nabbing the governorship. Where the real action will come is in how the steamrolling by the GOP may encourage more winning in November in local contests.

Indications are that Republican gains, and especially Landry’s accelerated win, came from reduced black turnout and slightly higher proportions of blacks, who comprise about 30 percent of the electorate, voting for Republicans like Landry. Blacks also typically are of lower socioeconomic status than whites, and lower SES voters usually need more stimulation such as by competitive contests featuring Democrats and especially blacks to turn out to vote.

But with so much decided at the state level and leaving unsettled just the secretary of state, one BESE, one state senate, and six state house races where blacks candidates face each other or who have even a small chance of winning, black turnout should decline even further relative to that of other demographic groups, which will cost Democrats votes. This will ripple down into some local contests.

For example, in Caddo Parish white Republican lawyer John Nickleson led black Democrat former Shreveport chief administrative officer Henry Whitehorn 45 percent to 35 percent, even though just below a majority of voters, the plurality, are black. In a 23^rd Judicial District judge contest that takes place in Ascension, Assumption, and St. James Parishes, black Republican Vicky Jones trailed black Democrat Keyojuan Turner 39 to 33 percent in a district where blacks outnumber white by almost 2:1 and Democrats exceed Republicans by almost 3:1. And for Lafayette City Council District 1, white Republican Melissa Matthieu-Robichaux who took 31 percent of the vote has a chance against black Democrat Elroy Broussard who had 35 percent in a district with similar demographics. The Republicans in these and other local contests throughout the state with similar dynamics could win if black turnout disproportionately depresses further in the runoffs.

It's also possible that some black Democrat incumbents might suffer against black Democrat challengers, as higher SES voters regardless of race who would disproportionately turn out might be more likely to vote against incumbents to express disgruntlement. This puts Democrat state Reps. Travis Johnson and Barbara Carpenter in the crosshairs in legislative contests, for example.

Democrats in the state and local party apparatuses might be able to prevent their favored candidates from losing where they have significant registration advantages, but only if they stem the bleeding so readily evident in the general election.