Louisiana Legislature elections this fall look on track to cement a Republican supermajority that, at least for the next few years, may be superfluous.
Given term limits and decisions to seek other offices or retirements, at least a third of the incoming Legislature will have new faces in various offices. Another third will have guaranteed holdovers from incumbents who didn’t draw any opponents, and three lucky House newcomers and one fortunate Senate rookie (although a sitting House member) got free passes to their new posts.
The partisan scorecard reads as follows: 15 uncontested House Democrats, 13 Democrat-only House contests, 30 uncontested House Republicans, 26 Republican-only House contests, 8 uncontested Senate Democrats, 12 uncontested Senate Republicans, 10 Republican-only Senate contests. That makes for guaranteed party representation of 28 Democrats and 56 Republicans in the House – more than enough to put the chamber in control of Republicans – and 8 Democrats and 22 Republicans in the Senate – also enough to give partisan control there to the GOP.
Further, Democrats meet minor or no party candidates in 1 House contest, while Republicans find the same in 3 House contests. These point to likely major party wins, giving GOP advantages of 59-29 in the House and holding at 22-8 in the Senate.
And, where major interparty competition occurs in the other 17 House and 9 Senate contests, many won’t be competitive given district demographics of party and race. In the Senate, six contests feature an incumbent, who typically don’t lose where two are Democrats (in both instances all candidates are black), and of the others, demographics suggest the GOP will pick up two, leaving it with a 28-11 advantage or the gain of one seat. None of these appear to be possible tossups; in each of the three that don’t have an incumbent, at least one candidate currently serves in the House that will be favored (in SD 39, two).
The House offers a bit more possibility for interparty competition. Two Democrats and six Republicans face at least one challenger from the other major party, where GOP districts seem likely to be held although in a couple of instances a challenger Republican may defeat the incumbent and one of the two Democrat-held districts seems secure. The only incumbent that may be threatened by a major party rival is HD 105’s Democrat Mack Cormier, who gained office four years ago by defeating Republican incumbent Chris Leopold, faces a challenge from Leopold’s wife Joanna Capiello-Leopold, but she runs as a Democrat. The internecine battle might open the door for one of the two Republicans running to pass them both.
As for the remaining challenged open seats, Republicans should take all but two, and only one seems like a tossup. In HD 85 that no party Joe Marino recently abandoned, former Gretna City Councilor Republican Vincent Cox will take on Democrat teacher and party activist Andrea Manuel while no party Andrew Bennett will try to play spoiler. With whites just under half of the electorate but Republicans just under a quarter of voters, it could go either way.
Assuming a party split between HD 85 and HD 105, that would leave another GOP gain of a seat, to have 72. With the highly-likely scenario that a Republican enters the Governor’s Mansion early next year, possessing supermajorities in each legislative chamber doesn’t have the import that it would if different parties held different branches of government, but Democrats can count as a moral victory if preventing the GOP from making gains in either chamber.
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