After election results came out, my Baton Rouge Advocate colleagues noted
that a seemingly-popular incumbent for a Livingston Parish school board spot, running
without a party label, lost to a Republican (although one with vast schools
experience). In another school board matchup there, Republican Devin Gregoire defeated
a no-party candidate who appeared to do more campaigning, although neither
apparently raised or spent enough to have to file a campaign finance report.
This prompted a political consultant based in Baton
Rouge to proclaim “The politics of Livingston Parish is changing in that not
only the Democratic Party label, any label but the Republican party has become
toxic.” While the first part is valid, the second misunderstands the nature of
Louisiana politics.
Certainly, in the last decade white candidates calling themselves Democrats increasingly have found it difficult to win elections in Louisiana. One look at the changing partisan composition at the state level verifies that, but this also increasingly has crept down to local offices and almost universally is true in larger jurisdictions.
But this trend has faced resistance in coming to fruition
in smaller jurisdictions. While one can argue that Livingston has grown –
adding roughly 10,000 people estimated since the 2010 census – that’s still
only an 8 percent increase, which should disrupt only marginally existing
patterns. As well, keep in mind the two contests attracted fewer than 5,000
voters.
In these circumstances, the personalistic nature
of Louisiana politics kicks in. Its political culture placing so much emphasis
on a candidate’s personal qualities and less relatively on party and ideology,
the smaller in population the jurisdiction, the less impact party has on vote
choice.
As the Democrat label has become more tied to
leftist national politics, those candidates harboring such sympathies have resorted
to calling themselves no-party. To a certain degree, Louisiana’s majority
conservative voters – with a large majority among whites – increasingly recognize
the chicanery and vote for available Republicans as the only assurance they
will get an elected official congruent with their ideology.
But in smaller jurisdictions, that tendency fades
as familiarity with the candidates increases. As a case in point, while as a Republican
Devin Gregoire won, his father Ronnie Gregoire also won an at-large Albany Town
Council seat but as a Democrat. In doing so, he defeated one of the Republican incumbents,
as all four GOP and single no-party ones ran for reelection. This completely
changes the partisan complexion of the body, because in 2014 three of the now-Republicans
ran as Democrats, along with a fourth and the no-party member.
Also, Albany’s independent police chief won reelection
– but against a Democrat. And while an independent lost the mayor’s race in
nearly Killian to a Republican, he
met that defeat at the hands of a former mayor.
North Louisiana’s Webster Parish also provides an
example of where personalistic factors override partisanship. In school board
races there, most just elected ran unopposed. While a Republican did defeat a
no-party candidate in one district, three white independents, a white no-party,
and a white other party member qualified without opposition. A no-party
candidate defeated a Republican for mayor of Springhill, two no-party aspirants
went head to head for mayor of Doyline, and no-party candidates picked up a few
more elected spots throughout the parish at the expense of both Republicans and
Democrats.
Sure, in low information contests such as these
party will matter, and a Republican label means more potential support in the
electorate, all things equal. But candidate image factors generated from personalistic
politics don’t make all things equal. For now, in constituencies small enough where
personalism matters and where the black portion of the population isn’t large (because
otherwise only Democrats can win), that will have more impact on an election outcome
than partisanship.
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