The city’s mayor
contest drew 10 candidates and the City Council will have a whopping 22
candidates spread over its seven districts. Perhaps more informatively, six
districts have 21 candidates in the running. Only District G’s Democrat Jerry
Bowman, serving as his mother once did, escaped any competition.
In fact, two incumbents find themselves part of a
rematch. In District A, Democrat Willie Bradford finds himself up against the incumbent
he defeated four years ago, Democrat Rose Wilson McCulloch (herself daughter of
a former elected official). In District G, Democrat Stephanie Lynch will try to
fend off again former member (of some two decades ago) James Green.
Realistically, both incumbents could lose, with
the greater probability that Lynch not make it. She has generated controversy,
not exactly flattering, over public comments and behavior, becoming embroiled
in a defamation lawsuit and garnering attention over a dismal
attendance record for the Council.
Bradford drew
some approbation for a recent remark saying District B Republican candidate
Wendy Vance should not be elected because “We can not keep electing our
housewives,” as well as for a social media post implying support for GOP Pres. Donald Trump was
racist. But in a district with overwhelmingly black and Democrat registration,
that shouldn’t hurt him enough to make him an underdog, even after he initially
had said he wouldn’t run again, then reversed his position in less than a
month.
District E’s James Flurry drew just one challenger
not subject to a political grudge, but to a demographic one. The white
Republican’s constituency now contains a bare majority of white voters, as
opposed to 56
percent in his election last time in a runoff where he received 55 percent
of the vote. He faces Quinton Aught, a black Democrat about to have an
associates degree, in October.
Flurry needs help here, even considering Aught’s
relatively tender age. In recent Shreveport history, most whites but very few
blacks have voted for Republican. Further, whites turn out at
disproportionately rates than blacks in runoffs as opposed to general
elections. With just a 4 percent gap in registration numbers, applying the past
pattern to this contest in a general election winner-take-all situation points
to a dead heat, as long as Aught can run a credible campaign.
The other three districts all have departing
incumbents, courtesy of term limits. District C seems well set to send another
Republican to Government Plaza, as advertising executive Patrick Kirton takes on lawyer John
Nickelson with another minor candidate in the race, with perhaps Kirton
favored.
Likewise in District D, where a number of
Republican qualifiers will square off against a lone Democrat, with
demographics favoring whichever GOP candidate emerges in the runoff. And
District B likely will see party continuity, although in a different manner.
There, white Democrat Jeff Everson won election
twice despite the district having a bare black majority of voters whose
proportion only has increased since. This makes community activist Levette Fuller the favorite, although
she will have to fend off another community activist and perennial candidate Craig
Lee, a black independent backed by Bradford. Joining her in an expected runoff
likely will be the only Republican in the race, Vance.
Yet the mayor’s race seems the most wide-open.
Democrat incumbent Ollie Tyler will have to fend off at least four major
challengers, Republicans Jim Taliaferro
and Lee O. Savage, and Democrats Steven Jackson and Adrian Perkins.
Tyler has come under fire for controversies
surrounding the police chief she selected Alan Crump while the city’s crime
rate remains high and in pursuing
pie-in-the-sky economic development ideas. These other candidates have,
from mildly to severely, criticized these aspects of her rule.
Ironically, this dissatisfaction may work to her
advantage. Caddo Parish Commissioner Jackson and lawyer Perkins, both black,
could split that portion of the vote dissatisfied with Tyler. This could allow
either white Republican to make a runoff with her, where she would win.
But businessman Savage and Taliaferro, with a
background in law enforcement and who likely will draw more Republican support
after a spirited run for constable four years ago, could split the GOP vote
enough so that Jackson, likelier than Perkins, could consolidate enough support
to get into the runoff with Tyler, making for a scenario too close to call.
Worse, if Perkins does better than expected and the Republicans split their
vote, the black Democrats could ace her out of the runoff.
The only certainty in all of this is Shreveporters
apparently want a lot of options to current officeholders.
No comments:
Post a Comment