Suddenly,
the field for this special election in the fall seems flooded with these
choices. This week, both former
state Sen. A.G. Crowe and current
state Rep. Rick Edmonds formally announced candidacies. Crowe compiled a
solidly conservative voting record in his many years in the Legislature, and
Edmonds has done likewise in his House service.
And
another conservative Republican, state Rep. Paul Hollis,
has indicated he will run. Of the three, he has the most experience in running
statewide campaigns, having run for U.S. Senate in 2014 only to desist prior to
the election.
Four candidates now have signaled officially their intention to run, with qualifying to begin in three weeks. First out of the gate was Republican state Rep. Julie Stokes, who ran for state treasurer last year but dropped out to battle successfully cancer. Democrat Renee Free, who presently works in a senior capacity in the Department of Justice headed by GOP Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry, followed.
Therein
lies the problem for conservatives. Free appears committed and willing to run a
serious campaign. Given that a less-serious treasurer candidate ran as a Democrat
last year yet made the runoff with next to no campaigning (and embarrassing
state Democrats along the way), history demonstrates she would capture most
Democrats’ votes and assuredly would make the runoff but would not have enough
support to defeat Republican runoff opponent.
But
this doesn’t guarantee that a genuine conservative wins. While Stokes generally
has voted conservatively (and her campaign website goes to great pains to
attach the word “conservative” to her as often as possible), at big
moments she has a history of selling out that philosophy.
Most
recently, at the very end of the 2018 Second Extraordinary Session of the
Legislature, she moved to reconsider a bill that would have established a 4.5
percent sales tax rate for seven years. When GOP state Rep. Alan Seabaugh
acted to block that from happening before session’s end because he opposed that
high of a rate, she rebuked him on the floor, blaming him for the extra time
and expense to come in a third session.
That
overtime likely cost taxpayers around $300,000, producing most significantly a
sales tax rate of 4.45 percent – which will save taxpayers around $60 million
yearly. It’ll be interesting to see when the first attack ad against Stokes
appears recounting how in order to save $300,000 she wanted to hit up taxpayers
up for $420 million extra over the life of the tax.
Then
there’s the perception that Free may act as a Democrat spoiler. Even though she
previously worked for years in a SOS job roughly at the same level as her
present position, her service under Republicans there and in the AG’s office
fuels speculation that she entered simply to discourage any high-profile
Democrat elected officials from jumping in.
If
true, if Free runs a credible campaign it won’t matter much as she’ll still
sweep up Democrats – assuming another quality Democrat doesn’t enter, which
seems unlikely as it probably would fragment this vote so much as to prevent
any Democrat from making the runoff.
So,
the powers that be within that party may tacitly support and campaign
surreptitiously for Stokes, seeing her as a malleable Republican. That will
score her some support, and other moderate Republicans may throw in with her as
well. Still, these dynamics don’t suggest she could advance to a runoff against
Free …
…
unless the race swells with too many consistent conservatives. Three heavy hitters
like Crowe, Edmonds, and Hollis may fragment the right side of the ledger so
much as to put Free and Stokes into the runoff – Democrats’ best scenario. Even
without Hollis, Crowe and Edmonds might split the vote so exactly as to allow
this outcome.
This
counterproductive fragmentation remains a possibility, especially if Hollis
gets in, unless one of the guys can consolidate the vote on the right. Obviously,
there’s no guarantee of that happening.
Unless
something incredible occurs, a Republican will win this contest. The job has
next to no policy content to it, and certainly nothing having to do with fiscal
affairs. Further, it never has served as a successful launching pad for Congress
or the Governor’s Mansion.
Still,
it remains possible that an ambitious politician could use it as such. In that
case, conservatives would hope that they have maximal chances to get one of
their own into it.
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