Republican Sen. David Vitter finds himself in this enviable position as a Rasmussen poll of likely voters by phone and a YouGov/Politmetrix Internet poll of likely voters put him solidly ahead of Democrat U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon. This is the largest lead registered by one major-party candidate over another in almost two decades in the state, before Senate races started to field competitive Republicans. Also favoring Vitter is that it’s been eight decades since an incumbent lost in
Add to that the darkening red shade of
For example, what if the election of Republican Scott Brown from
Or if Obama suddenly came to his senses and began to try to govern from the center instead of the far left? No, Vitter gets the credit for opposition that he can legitimately claim pulled Obama in that direction, while Melancon becomes an enabler for votes such as for the spending bill that has done nothing positive to the economy and hiked debt up to previously-unimaginable levels.
(As a side note, with Secretary of State Jay Dardenne announcing that he won’t contest Vitter for the GOP nomination, that would indicate Dardenne may be seriously contemplating getting into the lieutenant governor’s chair if, as he is predicted to do, current holder Mitch Landrieu wins the New Orleans mayoralty. His odds would have been better than Melancon’s but still long and the expense huge, so this comes as no real surprise regardless of whether a vacancy will come soon.)
As always, a lot can happen in a little under 300 days. But the facts are if anybody is going to come back from 20-point deficits in 2010 elections, it’s not going to be a Democrat. Numbers and history show that, unless Vitter is crazy enough to commit another “serious sin,” what once was considered a possible Democrat pickup opportunity has vanished.