Finally, some body blows
were landed in the final statewide televised Louisiana
gubernatorial forum of 2019, to the chagrin of Democrats.
As always,
participants had differing objectives. For incumbent Democrat Gov. John
Bel Edwards, he needed to
keep on dancing fast, trying his best to explain away, if not put nausea-inducing spin on,
Louisiana’s worst, if not the worst, economic performance in the nation during
his term, induced by tax increases well beyond necessary for the additional
spending (that increased almost twice the rate of inflation in terms of state
dollars used) he supported. He also needed to dodge whatever of a host of things
not related to economics that his opponents Republicans Rep. Ralph
Abraham and Eddie
Rispone could work them into
the mix.
As for the
GOP challengers, they had a two-front battle on their hands. Each had to figure
out a way to push past the other into an almost-certain runoff and do it in a
way that would damage Edwards. Whichever can do both of these in the forum and
then amplify that over the next five-plus weeks can become Louisiana’s 57th
governor.
9.10.19
Colleges should avoid appearance of favoritism
Several Louisiana higher education institutions may
have put their thumbs on the scale to aid anti-reform candidates in Board of
Elementary and Secondary Education contests.
From the middle of September on, candidate forums were conducted across the state for the seven contests on the ballot this Saturday. These were conducted by a recently-formed interest group called the Louisiana Public Schools Coalition, comprised of unions and special interests tied to district superintendents and school boards -- all of whom have a history of resisting a reform agenda that emphasizes measured classroom achievement, educational choice, and commitment to escalating standards.
The forums (some of which were recorded) naturally were imbalanced in that the questions came from the organizers (although not all were moderated by people associated with the organizers) and from members in an audience typically stacked with sympathizers, if not affiliates, of the special interests behind the group. There’s nothing wrong with that; candidates know what they get into and even if proceedings slant to promote certain views, useful information for voters can come from that. (Not all pro-reform incumbents attended the forums.)
From the middle of September on, candidate forums were conducted across the state for the seven contests on the ballot this Saturday. These were conducted by a recently-formed interest group called the Louisiana Public Schools Coalition, comprised of unions and special interests tied to district superintendents and school boards -- all of whom have a history of resisting a reform agenda that emphasizes measured classroom achievement, educational choice, and commitment to escalating standards.
The forums (some of which were recorded) naturally were imbalanced in that the questions came from the organizers (although not all were moderated by people associated with the organizers) and from members in an audience typically stacked with sympathizers, if not affiliates, of the special interests behind the group. There’s nothing wrong with that; candidates know what they get into and even if proceedings slant to promote certain views, useful information for voters can come from that. (Not all pro-reform incumbents attended the forums.)
8.10.19
Blacks unenthusiastic about rehiring Edwards
A reason Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards’
reelection chances, according to early voting totals, have started to slip away
is an understandable lower enthusiasm in the black community for him.
Not only did early voting data for the Oct. 12 election show that Republicans disproportionatelyparticipated relative to Democrats, so did whites relative to blacks. Across the ten most recent statewide elections spanning 2014-18, on average 8.51 percent of whites and 7.06 percent of blacks voted early. For early voting concluding last weekend, the numbers respectively were 14.35 and 10.18, with the gap going from a past mean of 1.45 to this election’s 4.17.
Historically across the ten elections, come election day the ratio of early to election day votes for whites has been 4.62 and for blacks 4.8, meaning to a small degree that whites disproportionately use early voting compared to blacks, so that ameliorates somewhat the impact of early voting in carrying through to election day results. Consider also that the historic overall turnout gap has been about 5 percent higher turnout for whites, or about 3.5 times higher than that for early voting.
Not only did early voting data for the Oct. 12 election show that Republicans disproportionatelyparticipated relative to Democrats, so did whites relative to blacks. Across the ten most recent statewide elections spanning 2014-18, on average 8.51 percent of whites and 7.06 percent of blacks voted early. For early voting concluding last weekend, the numbers respectively were 14.35 and 10.18, with the gap going from a past mean of 1.45 to this election’s 4.17.
Historically across the ten elections, come election day the ratio of early to election day votes for whites has been 4.62 and for blacks 4.8, meaning to a small degree that whites disproportionately use early voting compared to blacks, so that ameliorates somewhat the impact of early voting in carrying through to election day results. Consider also that the historic overall turnout gap has been about 5 percent higher turnout for whites, or about 3.5 times higher than that for early voting.
7.10.19
Caddo elections figure into statue removal
As Caddo Parish sinks deeper into the political and legal morass involving its decision to remove the courthouse’s Confederate monument, election year politics come more firmly into play.
After the Parish Commission voted in 2017 to move the United Daughters of the Confederacy monument on the grounds since the early part of the 20th century then last year a federal court decided the parish owned the ground underneath the memorial which an appellate court upheld this year, in August the Commission sent the UDC chapter a demand letter to move the statuary in 90 days.
An analysis by Republican state Rep. Thomas Carmody, acting independently of his office and unpaid by the parties involved, told the Commission it used a faulty interpretation of the state’s Civil Code that might entice a suit should it try to move the monument. To add insult to injury, the UDC told the Commission to go pound sand.
6.10.19
Early voting numbers signal Edwards defeat
Early voting statistics for the Oct. 12 Louisiana
statewide general election are in, with anecdotal
reports based on figures earlier in the process leading to conjecture of a
Republican advantage. Those forecasts appear accurate, the final early voting
data show.
To determine whether any party’s candidates have an advantage, data from the previous five years of contests with a statewide elective office on them can be used. This yields ten data points. For each election, the proportion of early voting compared to total registration and final turnout percentage may be computed to make a ratio of total turnout percent to early voting percent. An average of these total/early proportions can create a benchmark to forecast total turnout.
Democrats have averaged 39.26 percent total turnout while Republicans have averaged 43.59 percent. In terms of early voting over this span, those means respectively are 8.47 and 10.14. Thus, the ratio for Democrats, is 4.65; for Republicans, it’s 4.35. This shows in recent history that of those who vote Democrats in comparison to Republicans disproportionately don’t vote early, with early votes making up 21.5 percent of their total while for the GOP its early voters comprise 23 percent of that total.
To determine whether any party’s candidates have an advantage, data from the previous five years of contests with a statewide elective office on them can be used. This yields ten data points. For each election, the proportion of early voting compared to total registration and final turnout percentage may be computed to make a ratio of total turnout percent to early voting percent. An average of these total/early proportions can create a benchmark to forecast total turnout.
Democrats have averaged 39.26 percent total turnout while Republicans have averaged 43.59 percent. In terms of early voting over this span, those means respectively are 8.47 and 10.14. Thus, the ratio for Democrats, is 4.65; for Republicans, it’s 4.35. This shows in recent history that of those who vote Democrats in comparison to Republicans disproportionately don’t vote early, with early votes making up 21.5 percent of their total while for the GOP its early voters comprise 23 percent of that total.
3.10.19
Tap-dancing can't put lipstick on expansion pig
Regarding the dueling opinion pieces by female
policy-makers at the opposite ends of Louisiana’s Medicaid expansion debate, more
relevant to the debate is what was not written.
Last week, in the Louisiana section of The Center Square news site, Republican state Sen. Sharon Hewitt opined that politics rather than sound policy drove Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards’ decision to expand Medicaid. She pointed out that it was rolled out hastily, that it registered at least $85 million roughly in payments to non-qualifiers, that a computer system which could have reduced that total was known to be lacking by the Edwards Administration yet expansion occurred without it, implementation of the system removed some 50,000 recipients from the system who likely cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of more inappropriately, and that as a whole gamesmanship appeared to play a role in the selection of new providers for regular and expanded Medicaid judging from the unserious reaction by administration staffers in the vetting process that led to a decision now legally challenged and threatening future provision.
In response, Edwards’s appointee to run the Department of Health, Secretary Rebekah Gee, tried to contest many of Hewitt’s points. She claimed that her department “worked hand-in-hand with the legislative auditor’s staff and the Attorney General’s Office to identify the rare cases of misuse or fraud in the program.” Also, she noted that Hewitt played an early role in the contract selection process the senator now critiqued and that “scoring of the bids was done by an independent review committee without input from politicians or political appointees.” Additionally, she defended the preparedness of the agency in the nearly six months from announcement to startup. Finally, she made a defense of Medicaid overall, including areas outside of the expanded population, and stated that expansion had resulted in “saving lives and [has] cut the state’s uninsured rate in half, while creating new jobs and economic growth in the process.”
Last week, in the Louisiana section of The Center Square news site, Republican state Sen. Sharon Hewitt opined that politics rather than sound policy drove Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards’ decision to expand Medicaid. She pointed out that it was rolled out hastily, that it registered at least $85 million roughly in payments to non-qualifiers, that a computer system which could have reduced that total was known to be lacking by the Edwards Administration yet expansion occurred without it, implementation of the system removed some 50,000 recipients from the system who likely cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of more inappropriately, and that as a whole gamesmanship appeared to play a role in the selection of new providers for regular and expanded Medicaid judging from the unserious reaction by administration staffers in the vetting process that led to a decision now legally challenged and threatening future provision.
In response, Edwards’s appointee to run the Department of Health, Secretary Rebekah Gee, tried to contest many of Hewitt’s points. She claimed that her department “worked hand-in-hand with the legislative auditor’s staff and the Attorney General’s Office to identify the rare cases of misuse or fraud in the program.” Also, she noted that Hewitt played an early role in the contract selection process the senator now critiqued and that “scoring of the bids was done by an independent review committee without input from politicians or political appointees.” Additionally, she defended the preparedness of the agency in the nearly six months from announcement to startup. Finally, she made a defense of Medicaid overall, including areas outside of the expanded population, and stated that expansion had resulted in “saving lives and [has] cut the state’s uninsured rate in half, while creating new jobs and economic growth in the process.”
2.10.19
Edwards policy, not tariffs, caused job loss
The last thing Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards
wants the voting public to know is the wages of his fiscal policies that helped
drive the Bayou Steel Group into bankruptcy.
Earlier this week, the company with 2016 estimated $229 million in revenues at its LaPlace facility filed notices in Louisiana and Tennessee, where it has a smaller plant, of layoffs affecting over 400 workers, some 376 of them in Louisiana. It also filed for bankruptcy protection, listing no assets and liabilities of between $50 million to $100 million and having between 5,000 and 10,000 creditors.
The firm had operated as a subsidiary of Black Diamond Capital Management since 2006, which subsequently sold it in 2008, then bought it back in 2016. Black Diamond, a privately held alternative asset management firm, specializes in high yield credit, stressed and distressed credit, restructurings and business turnarounds. Throughout its history, Bayou Steel had problems maintaining profitability, including a stint as a public company listed on the American Stock Exchange, now known as the NYSE American.
Earlier this week, the company with 2016 estimated $229 million in revenues at its LaPlace facility filed notices in Louisiana and Tennessee, where it has a smaller plant, of layoffs affecting over 400 workers, some 376 of them in Louisiana. It also filed for bankruptcy protection, listing no assets and liabilities of between $50 million to $100 million and having between 5,000 and 10,000 creditors.
The firm had operated as a subsidiary of Black Diamond Capital Management since 2006, which subsequently sold it in 2008, then bought it back in 2016. Black Diamond, a privately held alternative asset management firm, specializes in high yield credit, stressed and distressed credit, restructurings and business turnarounds. Throughout its history, Bayou Steel had problems maintaining profitability, including a stint as a public company listed on the American Stock Exchange, now known as the NYSE American.
1.10.19
Tale of two LA corporations during elections
It’s a tale of two corporations, and has everything
to do with election-year and good-old-boy politics in Louisiana.
Last week, Fibrebond Corporation, located in Minden, pulled back on a threat to decamp for east Texas. For months, its owner had complained about the neglected condition of area roads and bridges, forcing long detours for its deliveries. The owner of the firm reaching back decades in the area gave officials an Oct. 1 deadline with economic incentives dangling elsewhere to make an offer.
They did, with Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards triumphantly announcing a deal, its details forthcoming later this week. It should include a commitment to infrastructure upgrades and workforce incentives.
Last week, Fibrebond Corporation, located in Minden, pulled back on a threat to decamp for east Texas. For months, its owner had complained about the neglected condition of area roads and bridges, forcing long detours for its deliveries. The owner of the firm reaching back decades in the area gave officials an Oct. 1 deadline with economic incentives dangling elsewhere to make an offer.
They did, with Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards triumphantly announcing a deal, its details forthcoming later this week. It should include a commitment to infrastructure upgrades and workforce incentives.
30.9.19
Still ticking UAL bomb needs addressing
It’s the time bomb Louisiana policy-makers, wishfully
or otherwise, think has been defused, and thereby doesn’t receive the election-season
attention that it should – and some, like Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards,
hope to hide their culpability in the service of an agenda to grow government.
Constitutionally, by 2029 the state must eliminate its unfunded accrued liabilities – that is, the amount actuarially required to pay off all anticipated future retirement obligations – that existed in 1988. While a few systems have done so, most haven’t including all the large ones. As of earlier this year, that accumulated debt equaled $18.2 billion, with over half in the Teachers Retirement System of Louisiana that covers traditional public school employees and a handful of others.
That payoff will cost taxpayers approaching an extra $2 billion this fiscal year, but policy-makers have proclaimed if the public can just bite that bullet for the next decade, all will be well. Once paid off, the remaining manageable level of anticipated debt the systems can endure without asking for extraordinary taxpayer contributions, they assume.
Constitutionally, by 2029 the state must eliminate its unfunded accrued liabilities – that is, the amount actuarially required to pay off all anticipated future retirement obligations – that existed in 1988. While a few systems have done so, most haven’t including all the large ones. As of earlier this year, that accumulated debt equaled $18.2 billion, with over half in the Teachers Retirement System of Louisiana that covers traditional public school employees and a handful of others.
That payoff will cost taxpayers approaching an extra $2 billion this fiscal year, but policy-makers have proclaimed if the public can just bite that bullet for the next decade, all will be well. Once paid off, the remaining manageable level of anticipated debt the systems can endure without asking for extraordinary taxpayer contributions, they assume.
27.9.19
No one wins, viewers lose in LA gov debate
Republicans challenging Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards performed
better in a debate
broadcast on Louisiana Public Broadcasting stations, and as a result they
didn’t end up the biggest losers.
Each gubernatorial candidate had a job to do, which changed somewhat for the GOP contestants since last week’s initial foray. While Edwards still had to deflect and distract from a disappointing record, with Eddie Rispone closing in on Rep. Ralph Abraham, both Republicans now had to show they made a better contrast with Edwards.
That can happen two ways, not incongruent with each other: attack each other’s past and policies and/or attack Edwards’ record. Rispone did a bit of attacking Abraham, while Abraham got some shots in on Edwards. Meanwhile, even as Edwards didn’t get quite as free of a ride as he did the last time, his tactic of disingenuous statements, if not outright lies, largely went without challenge.
Each gubernatorial candidate had a job to do, which changed somewhat for the GOP contestants since last week’s initial foray. While Edwards still had to deflect and distract from a disappointing record, with Eddie Rispone closing in on Rep. Ralph Abraham, both Republicans now had to show they made a better contrast with Edwards.
That can happen two ways, not incongruent with each other: attack each other’s past and policies and/or attack Edwards’ record. Rispone did a bit of attacking Abraham, while Abraham got some shots in on Edwards. Meanwhile, even as Edwards didn’t get quite as free of a ride as he did the last time, his tactic of disingenuous statements, if not outright lies, largely went without challenge.
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