Today the U.S. Supreme Court sent the consolidated Louisiana v.
Callais and Robinson v. Callais
into overtime. As a result of the Court’s refusal to decide on this case concerning
Louisiana’s reapportionment of congressional districts heard earlier this spring,
three major implications follow.
The current congressional map is likely to survive through the 2026 election cycle. The Court’s embracement of what has become called the Purcell Principle means that, realistically, unless the Court renders its decision no later than early 2026 Louisiana will end up using its current map that produces two out of six majority-minority districts for the 2026 election cycle. Lawmakers made this more likely in 2024 when they created semi-closed primaries for congressional elections that bumped up the qualifying date from early summer to late winter, just after they scrapped a single M/M district map that a federal district judge had ruled unconstitutional the previous year in favor of the present one, which itself didn’t seem too different from one the Court rejected three decades earlier that profoundly shaped reapportionment jurisprudence which itself is at the crux of the current case.
Next week the Court should release a 2025 Term schedule. If the case doesn’t appear very early on for argumentation, the clock will run out if changes need to be made and even if eventually found defective the current two M/M map will be used, essentially guaranteeing an additional Democrat elected to Congress.