This Saturday the winner of the
special election for Louisiana’s Fifth Congressional District is unlikely to be
determined, but in that case we may have a pretty good idea of who that might
be eventually.
The sprawling territory is being
contested by over a dozen people, and despite its short campaign window they
have attracted well over a million dollars in donations. Way out in front, each
having raised a bit over a half million each, are Republicans state Sen. Neil
Riser
and state Rep. Jay Morris. With a little
less than half of their totals is Republican Public Service Commissioner Clyde Holloway, a former member of Congress. At
half of that again sits state Democrat Rep. Robert Johnson. Less than half
of his was Democrat Weldon Russell, a member of
the state House from 1984-88, and dragging the rear of those who raised
anything significant enough to report was Monroe Mayor and Democrat Jamie Mayo,
who had raised about a thirtieth of either Morris or Riser.
Which means that Mayo is a good
bet to make the almost inevitable general election runoff. The district has
about 33 percent black
registration
but a history of black turnout trailing white, by 5 percent in the last
regular congressional election. Given this election may not even hit one-third
of the last election’s 68 percent overall turnout, according to early voting numbers, that gap might
increase even more, especially as no other races of consequence are on the
ballot (sorry, Ouachita Parish Justice of the Peace candidates, the one guy who
filed for mayor of Glenmora, etc.) and none that might stimulate black turnout.