This Saturday the winner of the
special election for Louisiana’s Fifth Congressional District is unlikely to be
determined, but in that case we may have a pretty good idea of who that might
be eventually.
The sprawling territory is being
contested by over a dozen people, and despite its short campaign window they
have attracted well over a million dollars in donations. Way out in front, each
having raised a bit over a half million each, are Republicans state Sen. Neil
Riser
and state Rep. Jay Morris. With a little
less than half of their totals is Republican Public Service Commissioner Clyde Holloway, a former member of Congress. At
half of that again sits state Democrat Rep. Robert Johnson. Less than half
of his was Democrat Weldon Russell, a member of
the state House from 1984-88, and dragging the rear of those who raised
anything significant enough to report was Monroe Mayor and Democrat Jamie Mayo,
who had raised about a thirtieth of either Morris or Riser.
Which means that Mayo is a good
bet to make the almost inevitable general election runoff. The district has
about 33 percent black
registration
but a history of black turnout trailing white, by 5 percent in the last
regular congressional election. Given this election may not even hit one-third
of the last election’s 68 percent overall turnout, according to early voting numbers, that gap might
increase even more, especially as no other races of consequence are on the
ballot (sorry, Ouachita Parish Justice of the Peace candidates, the one guy who
filed for mayor of Glenmora, etc.) and none that might stimulate black turnout.
Then again, the smaller the
numbers of voters get, the more likely a voting bloc that remains united will
get its preferred candidate in a runoff. Only one other candidate who is a
black Democrat like Mayo, state Rep. Marcus Hunter, is in it and he has
reported negligible fundraising and spending on his campaign. He’ll probably
peel off a small number of anti-Mayo black voters on principle, but since Mayo
is not the favorite to win in the end few may be likely compelled to show up.
And otherwise blacks in the district will line up solidly behind Mayo despite
his relatively low amount of expenditures, for word-of-mouth from black
political elites recommending a black Democrat is essentially free. Even with
reduced stimulation for black turnout and small cracks in his potential
support, do not be surprised if he pulls a quarter of the vote.
This leaves the matter of an
opponent, and that would appear to be from any of the three Republicans who
reported revenues and expenditures. At least Republicans everywhere can breathe
easier that the (to them) apocalyptic
scenario
of Mayo and Johnson making a runoff seems very unlikely. The three major GOP
candidates have not spent a half a million bucks viciously attacking each
other, which might drive votes from all three of them, nor has Johnson run a
very effective campaign with Russell running more vigorously than expected,
which probably will prevent him from collecting enough of those votes to move
on. Now it looks to be a matter of which Republican can ace out the other two.
While Holloway lags the other two
in money, he has advantages in that he is from the southern Rapides Parish
anchor of the district and has networking from approaching three decades in
politics. Still, he must share a bit with Johnson and that area has a smaller
base than have Riser and Morris based around the Ruston-Monroe corridor. All
three claim to be outsiders to Washington, DC, but he and Morris also assert their
independence from the presumed powers that run the state, so if there’s
such a segment of voters out there, they must split that as well.
Morris has superior resources
than Holloway, but when removing their own contributions from the mix, he
doesn’t lead Holloway by much. And while more cash is better, that both are so
self-funded indicates that activist networks have not been that jacked about
their campaigns, at least compared to the alternative Riser. In contrast to
them, he has engaged in no self-financing and has gotten an array
of endorsements,
the latest from the
second-ranking U.S. House Republican.
A broad and generous donor base
with high-profile endorsements serve as proxies for enthusiasm among the
electorate. Except for the very few who give to all acceptable competitive
candidates, donors are sure voters and advocates to the undecided about that
candidate. Endorsers do the same without the money. It may be just a couple of
people here or there, but it adds up, providing the difference to put Riser
ahead of the other two.
It’s possible that Holloway or
Morris could ace out Riser, more likely Holloway, but more likely than this
would be Holloway edging Mayo. That mostly depends upon how well Morris will
do. Mayo and Hunter, mostly Mayo, should take 25-30 percent of the vote right
there, and Riser should take 30-35 percent. If these higher ends are realized,
Morris almost certainly pulls enough from the remaining 35 percent to keep Holloway
out. Even at the lower ends, if Morris can grab 15 percent, Holloway probably
is on the outside looking in.
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