As previously
noted, the statement by Republican U.S. Rep. Rodney Alexander yesterday
that he would not run for reelection vaulted the likes of Republicans Riser,
fellow state Sen. Mike Walsworth, and
state Rep. Jim
Fannin into contention for taking over from him. It also presented a bit of
a quandary for Gov. Bobby
Jindal, for whom Fannin had been a loyal soldier in assisting Jindal
budgets into being as the chairman of the state House Appropriations Committee
and that Walsworth has been probably his closest legislative ally, in terms of
whether he should or could support either of them for this promotion.
Instead, discretion may have been the better part of valor for Jindal
by setting up a situation where didn’t have to make or to pass on a commitment
at all. By naming
Alexander to the vacant state Department of Veterans’ Affairs secretary’s job
with his leaving Congress within two months, it helped to set up a situation
where he did not have to turn off potential supporters for a future office from
the state by having to back either because Riser, who has been one of Jindal’s
biggest legislative allies, has clear advantages over the other two with a
contest looming in less than two months, with qualifying occurring in just
about two weeks.
With this earlier date, self-financing of a candidacy was important and
Riser has the means to do it. At the end of 2012 he had $93,000
on hand, which is not absurdly impressive but more than a lot of legislators
and could be used in a federal campaign (the reverse is not true). He also had
a political action committee at his disposal with around $5,000
in it. Note that this does not include any funds raised in 2013. Also, in 2011
he made at least a couple of hundred thousand dollars (he got an extension to
report his 2012 figures, not yet turned in) and showed ownership in several
enterprises, so he would be in a good position for a lightning-like sprint to
office.
Riser also has demonstrated he can run a good campaign. To get into the
state Senate in 2007 as a rookie candidate, he put down a veteran Democrat,
Bryant Hammett, who had been chairman of the state House Ways and Means
Committee (having left House service to become Secretary of the Department of
Wildlife and Fisheries). He also has the best experience to win this district
in that his currently is the largest district in the state, covering much of
the area in the Fifth.
And, he has been a favorite of conservatives, verified by his average
over six years on the Louisiana Legislative
Log’s voting scorecard (where 100 means a perfectly consistent voting
record with conservative and reform preferences) of just under 80, well above
party and chamber norms. This past session, by far he scored the highest in the
state Senate at 90.
Indications are that Fannin and Walsworth will not contest, and that Alexander
tacitly, by his confirming his upcoming post, and neighboring Rep. John Fleming explicitly
are supporting Riser’s bid. While term-limited Fannin may be interested in
term-limited state Sen. Bob Kostelka’s
job, Walsworth may be content with one more term in his current spot and has
announced also his backing of Riser.
If Riser pulls it off, he becomes the prohibitive favorite in the
regular election next year. None of the few Republicans to win such special
elections in the state’s post-Reconstruction history ever has lost attempted
reelection. Neither demographics nor their bench suggest Democrats can come up
with anything but an unlikely winner in opposition.
It also would create another shortened race to the regular election,
but not too short, that directly favors the incumbent. The 2008 contests that featured
former Democrat Rep. Don Cazayoux, now a U.S. district attorney, are
instructive. The special election he won narrowly was just six months prior to
the regular election, giving him no real incumbency advantage, where strong Republican
opponents ran both times, with one weakening him on the first giving him little
chance to replenish resources and the second, stronger than the first and who
strategically sat out the special election for this very reason, got him in the
second – helped by the district having a Republican lean. In contrast, with a
year to raise and no viable Democrat opposition to stretch him in the special
election, a victorious Republican in this has a clear path in 2014. And at this
point, he seems to have no serious GOP opposition for that.
No comments:
Post a Comment