Just more than a year out for
election to the U.S. House, what one inside-the-Beltway publication called a “safe”
Republican seat in Louisiana has attracted surprisingly little interest
from putative GOP candidates – which doesn’t mean a quality Republican may not
get elected.
As far as announced
intentions, only three people have expressed interest in running for the
Sixth Congressional District spot, centered around Baton Rouge. Two
Republicans, first term Baton Rouge Metropolitan Councilman Ryan Heck and businessman
Paul Dietzel, and Democrat real estate broker Richard Dean Lieberman have
declared such in intention. Incumbent Rep. Bill Cassidy is
running for the U.S. Senate.
Between the announced
Republicans, they hardly have any elective experience. A couple of others who
currently sit in the state Senate had expressed interest, but one recanted
quickly and another seems poised to do so. State Sen. Norby Chabert remains interested, but
being from the southern end of the district a distance from Baton Rouge puts as
many obstacles to his candidacy as the benefits from his less-than-a-full term
tenure in his current position would bring him.
Other higher-profile GOP names
have been mentioned by pundits and operatives. Board of Elementary and Secondary
Education member and current Pres. Chas
Roemer has shown he can win in a district roughly aligned to the Sixth
against highly-organized elements opposing beneficial education reform. Public
Service Commissioner Scott Angelle
won impressively in a district larger than the Sixth, and has held prominent positions
in state government.
But Roemer has emerged as a
divisive figure because of the reforms he has championed that ran very much
against the ethos that made Louisiana a laughingstock in education ignited
those vested in the old ways, meaning he could defeat any Democrat in this kind
of contest but may not be able to get past another Republican. Angelle may face
a similar problem because of recent decisions made as a PSC member that
appeared decidedly pro-corporate
welfare and to subsidize liberal Astroturf interests at the expense of ratepayers.
As a result, both may weigh carefully whether to make a bid.
The most interesting speculation surrounds
Family Research Council Pres. Tony Perkins, who says some activists have
encouraged him to run. A former state representative from the area, over a
decade ago he ran for Senate and garnered 9 percent of the vote. But for the
last several years he has worked in Washington (even as he maintained a residence
in the area and was appointed to two state boards) and has been perceived as
one of the nation’s foremost spokesmen for conservative social values. This
lack of political interaction in the district and narrowness in policy focus
that may have typecast him could make it hard for him to find adequate support
and to broaden his audience enough to win.
That apparently inquiries have
been made about Perkins indicates the present two GOP asserted candidates don’t
seem to be lighting the fires among Republican activists and donors. This is
not to say that they wouldn’t be good in office, nor that any of the other
names tossed into speculation wouldn’t be either. It’s just that running for
office is a strategic and investing decision for both activists and donors,
much less the candidates themselves. Time and money must be dedicated, and
individuals contemplating devoting these resources to a quest want to feel they
have someone to back that not only reflects their issue preferences, but who
also seems to be a quality candidate that can win.
At this point, quality seems to
be the bigger question than ideological competence among alleged and genuine
candidates. One might think that given the district is based around the never
center of state government, thoroughly dominated by Republicans, that surely
one or more solid and uncontroversial conservatives with a good campaigning record
would have emerged by now to contest the position. That has yet to be the case,
and it may remain the case.
Which doesn’t mean that from a
slew of presumably lesser lights that quality cannot emerge. Five years ago
several bigger names passed on running in the Fourth District anchored by
Shreveport, producing among Republicans three candidates, one with no
experience in government, one who had served on a state board, and one who had
served a single term as a coroner of a rural parish. In part the lack of
interest may have been as a result of a rare competitive Democrat that the Sixth
District seems not to have at this point. But in the end, the one with elective
experience, John Fleming, won
and continues to win reelection easily and governs as a staunch conservative.
(And one of his opponents now serves in the state House, state Rep. Jeff Thompson.)
No comments:
Post a Comment